Is the stock market going to tank?

[LeeLau]

Greece and China and still lots of US dumb money bag holders. Such a target rich environment.

[Harry]

Does this mean Benny's trip to Tuscany is on hold ?

[Bromontana]

Does this mean Benny's trip to Tuscany is on hold ?

Great question lol. He has been pretty on point with the macro view, although he's a permabear which helps.

[My Pet Powder Goat]

Weird- NYSE, United airlines and WSJ all have been hit with "glitches" at the same time

[Benny Profane]

Does this mean Benny's trip to Tuscany is on hold ?

No way, although I'm pissed the Euro actually went UP yesterday. Wtf?

[Cono Este]

Yesterday was the first day of the cbot floor being closed, after 100 plus yrs! Now the NySe shuts down. Coincidence? Or can I have my spot back?

[4matic]

Nikkei down another 3%. 1200 points in two days.

[4matic]

Yesterday was the first day of the cbot floor being closed, after 100 plus yrs! Now the NySe shuts down. Coincidence? Or can I have my spot back?

I was toured around the bond pit and soundly heckled. Something like "you want to walk around go to the park." Wouldn't want it any other way. Sweat and anger.

[BmillsSkier]

Some pretty funny twitter things about the shutdown today:

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/nationa...ebook_2014_sfp

[WTF is dat]

No way, although I'm pissed the Euro actually went UP yesterday. Wtf?

I feel you Benny I'm going to Scandinavia in August and everything is ridiculously expensive, even if parity is reached

[neck beard]

I suspect the HFT bots are programmed to be contrary to traditional indicators.

Why would HFT resources be applied to a long term strategy such as 50/200 MA on daily closes?

[4matic]

Why would HFT resources be applied to a long term strategy such as 50/200 MA on daily closes?

Moving averages trigger volume and pivots. HFT might be programmed to take advantage of the order flow on those pivots. For example, and I see this often (like yesterday on the largest reversal in years) when a moving average is broken you look for follow through on volume. No follow through and it becomes easy to manipulate the market the opposite direction on light volume triggering stop and reversal orders on heavier volume. Just my personal observation on daily fluctuations. In the past you would move through a pivot, bounce, and then retest the pivot. Nowadays you get typically get one shot to buy the low.

There is so much technical support in US equities that momentum on the downside is difficult to maintain. What it will probably take to break support is a big overnight gap below a key support level. Right now there is good support at 20 point increments in the SP500 for at least 200 points. That is why, imo, you see a lot more volatility in other equity markets. They just don't have the technical support for their recent runups: DAX, Nikkei, SSE, are not technically well supported and therefore much larger swings in price are common.

Like I have said before I think there is a decent chance to test the breakout on the monthly chart of the SP500 at 1600. Warning signs are continued weakness in junk, widening spreads between treasury and corporates (happening now), and volatility in currency. Currency volatility is relatively low so that's where I am watching. If the dollar starts to move up sharply hang on to your hat. The dollar chart is starting to turn back up on the weekly and is also subject to event risk regarding greece, china, and europe.

[neck beard]

Moving averages trigger volume and pivots. HFT might be programmed to take advantage of the order flow on those pivots.

Gotit. Initially I thought you were possibly suggesting that LT positions were being entered using HFT applications.

[4matic]

One of the issues with equities is that nothing is "priced in." ETF and index allocation investing never assumes any risk. As more and more money becomes indexed event risk becomes more severe because there is no active management.

Hang-Seng up 800 points tonight. It's early.

[huckbucket]

It's OK guys. I've got this covered. I shed some equities at the end of the day which pretty much guarantees a bounce tomorrow.

[Bromontana]

Hang-Seng up 800 points tonight. It's early.

Got a chuckle out of the Bloomberg alert. High upside volatility after sequential downdrafts is consolidation and volatile rotation, not an indication of recovery.

[Cono Este]

Moving averages trigger volume and pivots. HFT might be programmed to take advantage of the order flow on those pivots. For example, and I see this often (like yesterday on the largest reversal in years) when a moving average is broken you look for follow through on volume. No follow through and it becomes easy to manipulate the market the opposite direction on light volume triggering stop and reversal orders on heavier volume. Just my personal observation on daily fluctuations. In the past you would move through a pivot, bounce, and then retest the pivot. Nowadays you get typically get one shot to buy the low.

There is so much technical support in US equities that momentum on the downside is difficult to maintain. What it will probably take to break support is a big overnight gap below a key support level. Right now there is good support at 20 point increments in the SP500 for at least 200 points. That is why, imo, you see a lot more volatility in other equity markets. They just don't have the technical support for their recent runups: DAX, Nikkei, SSE, are not technically well supported and therefore much larger swings in price are common.

Like I have said before I think there is a decent chance to test the breakout on the monthly chart of the SP500 at 1600. Warning signs are continued weakness in junk, widening spreads between treasury and corporates (happening now), and volatility in currency. Currency volatility is relatively low so that's where I am watching. If the dollar starts to move up sharply hang on to your hat. The dollar chart is starting to turn back up on the weekly and is also subject to event risk regarding greece, china, and europe.

Like 4matic said, pro's don't gamble on technicals, they trade for edge (arbitrage), unless theyre using someone elses money and Have names like Preston, or Spalding.

Right now there is no trend, technicals are even more useless.

[Bromontana]

Bullshit. Technicals/Behavioral psychology always have and always will be relevant. BP run the markets more than fundys at crazy times like now.

Almost every trader in existence respects and studies technicals.

[4matic]

Eleven year low on the Loonie. .77c

[Benny Profane]

Lizard brains and blind squirrels.

http://fundreference.com/articles/20...f-wall-street/

[strawjack]

Our friend is an exec with this company...Interesting model they have set up.

We believe everyone deserves sophisticated financial advice. That’s why our minimum account size is only $500. We manage your first $10,000 for free and the rest for only 0.25% per year. There are no additional fees for our service. No trading commissions. Everything is included in our simple low advisory fee.

https://www.wealthfront.com/

[4matic]

Lizard brains and blind squirrels.

http://fundreference.com/articles/20...f-wall-street/

I thought Dent did good work at first but he's another charlatan.

[neck beard]

Right now there is no trend, technicals are even more useless.

There are technicals for trending markets and technicals for range trading markets.

And trading for edge =/= arbitrage. Though arbitrage strategies can provide certain people an edge.

Your blanket statements let you down.

[Cono Este]

The vast majority of volume traded in the matket is arbitrage related. Vol dispersion, pairs trading and index/etf arbs aka program trading. And that does not even include HFT which i have no experience with.

It is non scalable and proprietary trading that feeds off of hocus, pocus technicals i.e. the house vs the gambler.

Anything that you can do with a 20 dollar a month esignal sibscription (sorry 4matic) is not going to stand up to quants with hundred million dollar programs at goldman/crt, , timberhill, Susquehana, Swiss bank or BNP.

Not that I dont believe in Good Luck though.

[4matic]

Anything that you can do with a 20 dollar a month esignal sibscription (sorry 4matic) .

No apology necessary. We have a separate company that does HFT feeds. It's a completely different business.