Is the stock market going to tank?

[iceman]

You do realize that what you just said represent optimism.

Somebody stole Benny's password.

[Cono Este]

Somebody stole Benny's password.

Or a sell trigger?

[Benny Profane]

We'll, I'm far from optimistic about the Greek, Italian, or even French economy. China is obviously a bubbled market crashing. Even Puerto Rico just defaulted. Our stock market is OK. I fail to see how a Grexit could harm our equity market in the long run.

I mean, as always, where else are you going to make money? Seriously, you tell me. I'm all ears. And you and I are nothing. There are hundreds of fund managers who's jobs and reputations depend on finding yield today, especially pension funds who modeled at 8% returns to meet obligations. They ain't buying bonds.

[4matic]

They ain't buying bonds.

You'd be wrong on that. Very wrong. Expecting 10-20% gains this year is totally whack too. Most sane investors expect 5% total return from stocks for the next decade including dividends. I still think there is an even chance to test the breakout at 1600 SP500 on the monthly chart. That's only a 20% pullback.

http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2015/04/14/...le-into-bonds/

The 50 largest defined benefit plans in the S&P 500 held 41% of their $941.7 billion in total assets in bonds last year and 37% in stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. That’s the first time bonds have outweighed stocks since at least 2002, when the firm started tracking the data.

[Stu Gotz]

Thinking maybe I'll finally get that house by the beach. Only problem is the 9 hour flight to get there and I won't be able to understand my Greek pensioner neighbors.

Edit: I'll also add that I didn't think I'd see oil & gas names retesting lows, but that looks to be the case. Lotta broken names in the space.

[Benny Profane]

You mean your German and British pensioner neighbors. The Greek pensioners will be rummaging through your garbage.

[Benny Profane]

You'd be wrong on that. Very wrong. Expecting 10-20% gains this year is totally whack too. Most sane investors expect 5% total return from stocks for the next decade including dividends. I still think there is an even chance to test the breakout at 1600 SP500 on the monthly chart. That's only a 20% pullback.

http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2015/04/14/...le-into-bonds/

The 50 largest defined benefit plans in the S&P 500 held 41% of their $941.7 billion in total assets in bonds last year and 37% in stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. That’s the first time bonds have outweighed stocks since at least 2002, when the firm started tracking the data.

Hey, who knows. Money flows in mysterious ways, especially in an era of computers and fast communications. If there is a scare, maybe a whole bunch of money fleeing whatever winds up in the Dow. That's what I'm saying.
Besides, that 5% a year is going to have a few really good years, like a 15-20% shot.


And, as far as holdings, I know they have bonds, but, are they actively buying at today's returns?

[Bromontana]

And, as far as holdings, I know they have bonds, but, are they actively buying at today's returns?

Flight to safety is flight to safety, returns be damned.

[Flyoverland Captive]

What is the Capital of Greece?

about 10 Drachma.

[Benny Profane]

http://video.ft.com/4328301959001/Wh...agion-/Markets

[Harvey44]

Go to page one and skim over some of the posts. Kinda funny looking back. Summit on page two ftw.

I lurk this thread because I dig this kind of speculation, but have nothing to add. I'm just a low cost buy and holder.

I do think calling a 500 point drop a "tank" is nuts. IMO Tanking has got to be at least 2000 in DJIA. Those big drops are the only place suckers like me can make any money.

[Bromontana]

AAPL is down technically in a buyish range, keeping an eye on it.

The oil rebound seems overhyped especially in equities. Mediocre mid term crude pricing means bleh for valuations. And it appears supply and innovation will threaten price support in a more meaningful way going forward.

Not really active right now but am close to opening a new account in Decemberish to get active shorting Nasdaqs. Gonna give it another go with a big boy shot.

[LeeLau]

Setup for economic meltdown is perfect. Greece and Puerto Rico bankruptcy. Chinese stock market crash. China property market ponzi scheme unravels. Euros are dysfunctional and paralyzed by navel gazing. US is deep into extend and pretend and consumed by important things like Donald Trump's hair.
What a perfect storm for a nice big old cluster f#$k

[VTeton]

What say you, sit on the sidelines with some cash for a bit more or buy this small dip? 4 big losers were goldman, visa, Boeing and Dupont

[Benny Profane]

This headline is not from the Onion:

Will the Communist Party Save China’s Volatile Stock Market?

http://time.com/3946319/china-econom...mmunist-party/


Oh, and, this is going to end well. The average Chinese can now use their empty condo in an empty city as collateral for stock purchases. Hoo boy.

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...bprime-economy

[strawjack]

Copper dropping like a rock...again...along with everything else i guess. But hey, my bonds have a slight gain today

[4matic]

SP500 negative for 2015. Still up yoy by 4%. I have support right here at 2050 and just a test of the Sunday low in the futures. A weak close and 2000 on SP500 is likely. Getting my ass kicked on EWC but it's a small 1.5% allocation. Enjoying the sell off hoping for more. FXI is worth a shot around $40.

[mcsquared]

Massage Parlors as economic indicator. Lately I have notice a rash of neon "MASSAGE" signs going up in every little shopping center I pass on my commute. Sign of extra money sloshing around or a sign of commercial real estate scraping the bottom of the tenant barrel?

[Benny Profane]

Looks like a sign that your neighborhood is going to shit.

[mcsquared]

Looks like a sign that your neighborhood is going to shit.

Well, duh. I knew that.

[Cono Este]

Wait until widespread fraud, corruption, and accounting irregularities are uncovered accross the entire Chinese Stock Market.

Did I just say that?

Ok, I mean wait until everyone whose head is up their ass realizes it.

[4matic]

Wait until widespread fraud, corruption, and accounting irregularities are uncovered accross the entire Chinese Stock Market.

Did I just say that?

Ok, I mean wait until everyone whose head is up their ass realizes it.

Isn't fraud and irregularity perfectly normal for Chinese business accounting? Might be some good businesses in there but getting an accurate valuation will always be impossible.

[Cono Este]

If you said yes to every good deal in life you'd be broke.

Winning, and cashing out in China are two different things.

i just sent my lawyer another 1000 bucks for a fuckup I made there 10 yrs ago.

[4matic]

Good tip. Steer clear.

[PNWbrit]

i just sent my lawyer another 1000 bucks for a fuckup I made there 10 yrs ago.

Speeding ticket?

What is the mandarin for Dan Samas?