Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

It's not the same as 08.

Besides, heard of any cracks in the banking industry from all this? It's been six months.

XLF down almost 10% and the affect from junk bond trouble is not reflected in earnings yet. Throw in a flat/inverted yield curve and the banks get smashed. Just look at a monthly chart of XLF. It won't take much for that index to completely unravel.

[Benny Profane]

So what? Fuck the banks and their earnings. Crocodile tears for those parasites. I'm talking systematic damage. Internal units imploding, and many others attached to that. Has everyone forgotten 08 already? Lehman, Merrell Lynch, Bear Sterns, AIG, Fannie Freddie. There's still 14 Euro banks in serious trouble from that event. This is nothin'.

[Brock Landers]

Junk bond trouble isn't impacting the banks in itself as it would have in the past just due to the changes in regulation and the business of banks now. But the yield curve is impacting it a ton.

I'm pretty weary of the market in general right now. Not because businesses are in a tough spot or the us consumer is floundering. If anything the US dollar should help domestically. Even within energy, most companies will be absolutely fine. Cut back capex, continue to operate efficiently, this is all normal. Smaller, debt-laden companies producing oil/gas in high cost areas (Mississippi, certain areas in mid-continent, heavy oil sands)) will need to cut back heavily and this is the bulk of what we see in the overall rig count stats. Sandridge energy for example. But anyway, valuations and macro events may overwhelm the relative health on a micro level in the US. In Europe, they need much more help in the banking sector which I think the EU will provide. But it's going to take quite a while to get anywhere stable. They waited way too long in 2008/2009 and may be fucked anyway with the way the EU and ECB is even set up thatcher was right. Just my thought.

[4matic]

So what? Fuck the banks and their earnings. Crocodile tears for those parasites. I'm talking systematic damage. Internal units imploding, and many others attached to that. Has everyone forgotten 08 already? Lehman, Merrell Lynch, Bear Sterns, AIG, Fannie Freddie. There's still 14 Euro banks in serious trouble from that event. This is nothin'.

Stocks might not drop 60% like 2008 but 30-40%? Easily. 30% decline is a simple test of the previous high breakout.

[WTF is dat]

But somebody is collecting ever rising rent from that condo. And is now looking at much cheaper energy costs for 15. Some disaster.

Benny, it seems like you have failed to grasp the difference between a condo and an apartment

[WTF is dat]

everybody needs a roof over their head, and most of those need energy to either heat or cool those homes, which is now 50% cheaper at it's source for many.

The vast majority of heating and cooling is from NatGas or from electricity generated from nuclear, coal and NatGas.

Many have articulated potential problems ahead but with the mentioned "hedging" it's hard to foresee how it will all play out. There's bound to be some ugly messes here and there

[Benny Profane]

Benny, it seems like you have failed to grasp the difference between a condo and an apartment

Yes, yes, hrumph. What I was getting at is that all residential RE has rental values floating along with them, owner occupied or not. I assumed you were talking about a rental share situation. I guess not.

[Benny Profane]

Stocks might not drop 60% like 2008 but 30-40%? Easily. 30% decline is a simple test of the previous high breakout.

Too much cash in the world looking for yield. Barely holds a near ten percent drop before big up days. 30-40 % if serious war breaks out, just hope you're on the winning side on the back end.

[Bromontana]

Mid 40s now.. still don't see a reason to buy. Hoping for a $5-10/bbl bounce to short back into. Any deep washes into the $30s and I'll be going long with $UCO for a swing bounce.

[Bromontana]

Here's the daily chart from the 2009 recovery in WTI. Some of the big things to remember..



- We're pretty close to 2008 lows. Even if prior lows don't hold up it will likely take some time to get through the 40s/high30s.
- Look at the lows and highs that fooled a lot of people early on:
LOW $40.50 ----> HIGH $52.95 but then back down to LOW $35.13 -----> HIGH $50.47. Repeat to $39.11 ----> $48.59. Final low was $37.12, with the next stop of $60 by May.
- Plenty of time to enter. Don't get fooled by an early "rally" and buy at those false highs of $52.95 / $50.47 / $48.59. Look for entry in the troughs of the $30s or low $40s.

[philth]

Who here is a retail broker?

[4matic]

Fresh lows on WTI tonight by quite a bit. $45.30.

[Bromontana]

The slight hiccup in this roller coaster is that prices react faster than the production line. I think speculation will focus on an impending shortage if another year of capex is cut back in 2016. This scenario implies sub $50-60 for the remainder of 2015, which is a realistic possibility. Worldwide consumption requires around $1.1 trillion of investment per year. The impact of investment reduction is bound to affect supply. The Saudis have limited slack in their production capacity (~2 million bbl/day) so they can only address a small imbalance. If the market believes a $3m bbl/day reduction is coming from North America prices could move up fast.

[4matic]

Market looking higher. Time to sell more bonds.

[strawjack]

What is up with Copper. Dropping like a rock lately.

[Bromontana]

What is up with Copper. Dropping like a rock lately.

My wild guess is expectations of reduced demand in China, coupled with Euro deflation.

[schwerty]

Who here is a retail broker?

I work directly in the field. How come?

[4matic]

What is up with Copper. Dropping like a rock lately.

Fell 5% after KB homes warned.

[4matic]

Biggest reversal since 2008? 600 point range in $INDU. Doesn't feel that big..

[huckbucket]

Biggest reversal since 2008? 600 point range in $INDU. Doesn't feel that big..

I wish the industry would switch to quoting percentages instead of points. That should solve your "feel" problem.

[Bromontana]

Don't think this rebound will break the downtrend from the mid $50s by breaking $47 but if it does keep an eye on $50. There are so many short positions on right now the market is primed for increasing volatility.

Aside from consolidating after another $5 drop in price today looked like contract turnover led to short covering and a mild rally in oil. Right after the closing bell WTI dropped 0.85 cents/bbl. Should be renewed selling tomorrow.

[4matic]

Copper prices just collapsed. Down 7% in an hour.

[Bromontana]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said crude needs to drop to $40 a barrel to “re-balance” the market, while Societe Generale SA also reduced its price forecasts.

In other words, Goldman is targeting $40 with its funds and would like the market to continue lower to meet performance targets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...g-to-glut.html

[kokomas]

Bcom index rebalance is over after tomorrow. That's why market has rallied into close over the past 4 days

[jono]

In other words, Goldman is targeting $40 with its funds and would like the market to continue lower to meet performance targets.

This. After SA hired GS to help them capitalise on $40 oil, GS started front running them; of course.