Is the stock market going to tank?

**gravitylover** · 11-28-2014, 03:35 PM

So what to do now. Did anybody buy into VA at the IPO or since then? Is it still worth getting into on Monday? What else should be a good quick hit in the near future? It certainly isn't any of the oil/energy stocks that have been strong the last few years.

**P_McPoser** · 11-28-2014, 04:18 PM

I should fire the guy who bought me into that oil and gas mutual fund a while back....

**Benny Profane** · 11-28-2014, 04:26 PM

This oil thing is serious shit. Forty years ago OPEC intentionally inflated the developed economies with supply restrictions, now it seems that they could care less that they will accelerate the deflation and maybe coming depression with their policies. They just don't want the US and Canada to become the new Saudi Arabia.

**huckbucket** · 11-28-2014, 05:42 PM

so no shit ... let's talk oil-related stocks ... who follows those co's?

**4matic** · 11-28-2014, 06:07 PM

XOM is still higher than it was in October while CVX made a fresh low today. Exxon makes the same on a gallon of gas regardless of crude oil price. Junk debt is still bouncing along it's lows and since a lot of junk is oil related I would avoid any speculative oil play or any stock that relies on new drilling (MLP's, HAL, SLB, etc.)

XOM reminds me of Coke KO. Poor earnings and earnings growth but KO is well off its lows from last summer. Watch for XOM to not be down on a day when oil is down.

Today was last day for this years monthly statements so a selloff next week/month would not surprise me.

**Benny Profane** · 11-28-2014, 09:17 PM

I don't know. That's like playing FX. Not smart.

**xyz** · 11-29-2014, 09:33 AM

Originally Posted by P_McPoser

I should fire the guy who bought me into that oil and gas mutual fund a while back....

Paul, you should fire yourself for buying a mutual fund. ;-)

**xyz** · 11-29-2014, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

They just don't want the US and Canada to become the new Saudi Arabia.

That's the intention, drive the North American shale and oil sand industry out of business with low oil prices.

I just don't think there is enough slack in the oil supply to justify $65 or less per barrel for very long. Any news related to a supply reduction somewhere on this planet will bring the price right back up to $90.

Too much fear selling going on right now. I've been a recent buyer of the sector. Be greedy when others are fearful....

**Benny Profane** · 11-29-2014, 10:13 AM

Just imagine if Iran negotiated the sanctions away, which is happening right now.

**MontuckyFried** · 11-29-2014, 10:17 AM

Originally Posted by P_McPoser

I should fire the guy who bought me into that oil and gas mutual fund a while back....

Don't be so hasty. Seems to be just a feud between the US and OPEC. OPEC's scared out their wits with North America's oil production and exports, so they're trying to put us in our place. However, the players here know exactly what's going on. Looking forward to see what our counter-move is going to be. Hoping we can lay the smack down on OPEC after decades upon decades of their asshattery. I have a good feeling that the US oil and gas market is going to come out strong once all the dust settles. I'd say now is the time to buy, buy, buy.

The good thing about all of this is that it's driven down precious metals as well. Just bought a little bit of silver just for fun.

**gravitylover** · 11-29-2014, 11:46 AM

Yeah I was thinking buy more oil/energy and don't fall for the "bargain" airline stocks or related. What is hot this week?

**4matic** · 11-29-2014, 12:44 PM

Originally Posted by AustinFromSA

Don't be so hasty. Seems to be just a feud between the US and OPEC. OPEC's scared out their wits with North America's oil production and exports, so they're trying to put us in our place. However, the players here know exactly what's going on. Looking forward to see what our counter-move is going to be. Hoping we can lay the smack down on OPEC after decades upon decades of their asshattery. I have a good feeling that the US oil and gas market is going to come out strong once all the dust settles. I'd say now is the time to buy, buy, buy.

The good thing about all of this is that it's driven down precious metals as well. Just bought a little bit of silver just for fun.

Just write a check to charity so it won't be a total loss.

**Bromontana** · 12-03-2014, 04:37 PM

well the oil market tanked/is tanking. I got a starter size in $OIL in the 16.50 range with a stop at 16.00. Thinking this will be a nice money maker if the trade is managed carefully.

**liv2ski** · 12-03-2014, 06:49 PM

What is that chart about? The symbol "OIL" has not been over $26 in the last few years. I is conphuzed

**iceman** · 12-03-2014, 07:01 PM

uh that's the price of a barrel of crude dude

**4matic** · 12-03-2014, 07:12 PM

OIL is a cash settled ETN (Exchange Traded Note) tracking the value of an underlying index which tracks the price of crude oil:

The iPath® S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL) is designed to provide exposure to the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Total Return Index.

The S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Total Return Index (the "Index") is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI® Commodity Index. The Index reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract.

The risk in these rolling tracking notes is contango in addition to credit risk of the issuer:

Short answer: yes, a contango market in crude oil will result in negative roll yields in OIL - similar to USO.

Also, be aware that OIL is an ETN (exchange traded note), rather than an ETF (exchange traded fund). With ETNs, you are an unsecured creditor of Barclays (the issuer of the note), so you have credit risk overlaid on the risk of the commodity.

Read more: http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/01/h...#ixzz3Kt4IOUmX

**Bromontana** · 12-03-2014, 10:37 PM

Trying for a basic directional bet on oil, but am open to the idea it will go down to $40. Still willing to start to test with the recent behavior looking like a possible reversal in the making.

**Benny Profane** · 12-04-2014, 09:23 AM

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/12/...d=nytcore-ipad

**4matic** · 12-04-2014, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by Bromontana

I got a starter size in $OIL in the 16.50 range with a stop at 16.00.

Out on the open? That was fast.

**creaky fossil** · 12-04-2014, 09:52 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Just imagine if Iran negotiated the sanctions away, which is happening right now.

sanctions

when twitter snark just ain't cuttin' it

**Bromontana** · 12-04-2014, 09:53 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Out on the open? That was fast.

back to the waiting game

**4matic** · 12-04-2014, 10:48 AM

Using a previous day low as a stop is risky. Stop-close-only has it's own risk but a chance to stay in the trade for a little more time. Good luck though. Takes a strong stomach.

**Bromontana** · 12-04-2014, 11:46 AM

I bought on Monday around mid day. The idea being to target a gap fill and keep risk at $16.00 (low of that day, best indication of a support level available given the preceding gap down). Ended up exiting at 16.01, I'd like to see $/bbl down to the high 40s for a bit more aggressive position. Only took a starter position 15% the size of the planned one this time around given it's a front side move. No trend change yet.

But yeah, macro sh*t like this is really hard to nail. Takes incredible patience and some gray hairs.

**Benny Profane** · 12-10-2014, 09:04 AM

I would say that we can safely assume that the inflation/deflation debate is over, and deflation just won. Probably looking at peak Dow right now for awhile. Bring on cheap airfares, a cheap Euro, and more price wars! I'm on a fixed income soon.

**4matic** · 12-10-2014, 09:17 AM

Dollar wouldn't be 2% off it's high with lower oil if it were true deflation. Oil is an alternate currency; more than gold is. Gold been rallying too.