Is the stock market going to tank?

[Benny Profane]

An Arab Spring in China would be messy.

Which is the number one concern of the elite.

Amazing this Hong Kong thing has gone on so long. Putin sneers from the west.

[Timberridge]

about a weeks lag:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB_/

You do realize NY harbor RBOB is not even remotely connected to the SLC market?
You spew more stupid shit in this thread than the on air retards do on CNBC. And that's saying something.

[PNWbrit]

Which is the number one concern of the elite.

Are you supposed to tell us plebs?

[4matic]

You do realize NY harbor RBOB is not even remotely connected to the SLC market?

Almost exact correlation the last 30 days.

[Hugh Conway]

Are you supposed to tell us plebs?

when'd they start letting the plebs in? Is that Dunfee's fault too?

[Timberridge]

Almost exact correlation the last 30 days.

I'm sure there's a time period where the Singapore gasoline market is correlated with SLC too. Keep bringing the stupid.

[4matic]

I'm sure there's a time period where the Singapore gasoline market is correlated with SLC too. Keep bringing the stupid.

It's all nonsense and speculation but Utah gasoline is at a three year low just like the RBOB contract and just like every other State. Are you denying that?

[Like a Boss]

Just checking in to see if this thread is still kooky. Yep, it is. Carry on.

And buy some FAST and take a nap for 5-20 years...

[4matic]

And buy some FAST and take a nap for 5-20 years...

Chart is bearish. Island gap on the daily. Broke through a descending wedge on the monthly. Looks like another 15% lower to $36.

[Hugh Conway]

Just checking in to see if this thread is still kooky..

HOLY SHIT! A KOOKY THREAD ON TGR! MAN THATS SOME FUCKING INSIGHT!

Fastenal? Lulz.

[Bromontana]

Total Chinese debt has doubled since the GFC. How is that "smaller"? ~17% of GDP in debt servicing?

Sorry, the perma-bull thesis needs defending, not mean reversion.

Anyways, you might wish to look at the current events unfolding in Hong Kong to see why - and perhaps how - things could get quite ugly. Or they could just blame it on the Japanese (again).

I'm watching and on a personal level am rooting for some serious disruption followed by a shift in the political stance of China. But my current bet is that the Chinese will make some minor HK exceptions to placate the younger generation. Suppress the impact on mainland stability via censorship and even though it will be revealed the fact that mainland Chinese face more pressing issues than debating minor shifts in political models will suppress the overall reaction. Could be wrong, but I've been trained to respect the tact and power of Chinese leadership. Call me a lemming, but that's my 0.02c on near term impact.

At a macro level I don't see 7.3% growth in the near term being enough to foment the unrest seen in hyperinflationary (word?), economically failed states like the ME. It's a2o in many economic areas and the Chinese poor do have a real opportunity to advance their economic standing- irrespective of the seemingly broken nature of the system. ME youth are straight fucked.

[Timberridge]

It's all nonsense and speculation but Utah gasoline is at a three year low just like the RBOB contract and just like every other State. Are you denying that?

My comment was related to you claiming to the original poster that the SLC market was somehow some days behind the NYH market and linked to it. No such linkage exists. The SLC market is an 'island' market where local refineries process local crude and sell product locally. There is no link or arbitrage with NYH.

[4matic]

My comment was related to you claiming to the original poster that the SLC market was somehow some days behind the NYH market and linked to it. No such linkage exists. The SLC market is an 'island' market where local refineries process local crude and sell product locally. There is no link or arbitrage with NYH.

Go to this chart and compare SLC vs USA average

http://www.saltlakegasprices.com/Ret...ice_Chart.aspx

[MontuckyFried]

So with the stock market being as wacky as it's been lately, what would you all say the best things are to throw your money at these days? Real estate? Land? Silver? Beanie babies?

[4matic]

So with the stock market being as wacky as it's been lately, what would you all say the best things are to throw your money at these days? Real estate? Land? Silver? Beanie babies?

Single point of risk? Emerging Markets.

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...ritholtz-chart

Excerpt: ​“We also see an expectations gap as perhaps the greatest danger that we face now. Low returns and slow forward-looking growth rates are not inherently awful, they just are what they are...”​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​

http://www.researchaffiliates.com/As...-Overview.aspx

[Benny Profane]

So with the stock market being as wacky as it's been lately, what would you all say the best things are to throw your money at these days? Real estate? Land? Silver? Beanie babies?

Buy a property or two with cash or almost all cash and rent them out. It will be work, though.

[Benny Profane]

http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/10...n-wall-street/

To outsiders, Wall Street is a manic, dangerous and ridiculous republic unto itself – a sort of bizarro world where nothing adds up and common sense is virtually inapplicable.
Consider the following insane things that we believe on Wall Street, that make no sense whatsoever in the real world:
1. Falling gas and home heating prices are a bad thing
2. Layoffs are great news, the more the better
3. Billionaires from Greenwich, CT can understand the customers of JC Penney, Olive Garden, K-Mart and Sears
4. A company is plagued by the fact that it holds over $100 billion in cash
5. Some companies have to earn a specific profit – to the penny – every quarter but others shouldn’t dare even think about profits
6. Wars, weather, fashion trends and elections can be reliably predicted
7. It’s reasonable for the value of a business to fluctuate by 5 to 10 percent within every eight hour period
8. It’s possible to guess the amount of people who will get or lose a job each month in a nation of 300 million
9. The person who leads a company is worth 400 times more than the average person who works there
10. A company selling 10 million cars a year is worth $50 billion, but another company selling 40,000 cars a year is worth $30 billion because its growing faster
Away from Wall Street, no one believes in any of this stuff. It’s inconceivable. On Wall Street, these are core tenets of our collective philosophy.
No wonder everyone else thinks we’re insane.

[Hugh Conway]

but I've been trained to respect the tact and power of Chinese leadership

so this free-market capitalism stuffs just a bunch of bullshit that'll blow over? Because those mandarins in Beijing don't really believe in it (but they like the fringe cash) and betting that they'll keep juggling things for another couple decades is a vote for central planning (or at least heavy handed state picking of winners and losers that'd make the french blush) with all that that entails.

[Benny Profane]

so this free-market capitalism stuffs just a bunch of bullshit that'll blow over? Because those mandarins in Beijing don't really believe in it (but they like the fringe cash) and betting that they'll keep juggling things for another couple decades is a vote for central planning (or at least heavy handed state picking of winners and losers that'd make the french blush) with all that that entails.

Don't kid yourself that there's a lot of people watching this from the west who think that democracy is a very messy and inconvenient way to run a country, and are maybe cheering them on. Hitler and his National Socialism had a lot of fans in the west, including the father of John Kennedy and the beloved Charles Lindberg.

[abraham]

Heavy handed picking of winners? Nooo, not in China.

[Like a Boss]

Chart is bearish. Island gap on the daily. Broke through a descending wedge on the monthly. Looks like another 15% lower to $36.

Let's say you are interested in a stock that's above a price where you'd be comfortable buying. The price of that stock declines to a price you like. How would the chart NOT be bearish?

[liv2ski]

Stocks typically trade in a range, if you can buy in the bottom of the range that is good. If the stock has dropped below that range, then further declines may be around the corner. I am not really up on this shit anymore, but I use to pay attention to it once upon a time. Learning to read charts is a good idea.

[4matic]

Let's say you are interested in a stock that's above a price where you'd be comfortable buying. The price of that stock declines to a price you like. How would the chart NOT be bearish?

AMZN today is an example of trying to buy support at $280 on the monthly chart. Fundamentally, FAST is competing with AMZN. If AMZN is struggling with profitability and margin so is FAST.

There's an old saying "buy on the fundamentals and sell on the technicals." FAST would have been a buy on the test of the breakout at $48 in March 2014. When it gapped below $48 (a triple bottom) on July 7th 2014 it's all over; that's very bearish. No one with a stop limit got filled at the previous low. You had one chance after that to get out at the previous low of $47.50. Now it's all buyers remorse. Hope.

For now, FAST did rally away from previous point on the monthly chart at $40 so you have a reference point. Trade below $40 takes it to $36 in a hurry.

Also, T/A is art not science. It only provides a reference tool. One mans bull is another mans bear. Somebody out there will tell you FAST is a buy based on position of the moon. Seriously.. Arch Crawford is an old friend of ours:

http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/

Gotta love the Mars Uranus cycle:

http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/...ars-Uranus.pdf

[Hugh Conway]

It doesn't fundamentally compete with AMZN. They outsource inventory for small/medium businesses, nominally manufacture, and are gutting the hardware/fastener section of hardware stores.

[Like a Boss]

It doesn't fundamentally compete with AMZN. They outsource inventory for small/medium businesses, nominally manufacture, and are gutting the hardware/fastener section of hardware stores.

You sound bullish. I thought you hated everything?