Is the stock market going to tank?

[MontuckyFried]

Gotta love the lemming mentality of investors. "Uh oh! Pork bellies are down $3. Everybody sell! Sell! Sell! Ahhhhhhh!!!! The sky is falling! Better dump everything else too! AAAAHHHHHHhhhhhh!"

[4matic]

Gotta love the lemming mentality of investors. "Uh oh! Pork bellies are down $3. Everybody sell! Sell! Sell! Ahhhhhhh!!!! The sky is falling! Better dump everything else too! AAAAHHHHHHhhhhhh!"

Look around the table. If you can't see the sucker, you're it.

[4matic]

T-Bonds took back 50% of the gains from earlier today. That's a big move.

Ten year yield hit 1.86%. May I spike the football?

[4matic]

German DAX collapsed into the close. Down almost 3%.

[creaky fossil]

Look around the table. If you can't see the sucker, you're it.

[4matic]

$INDU has potential to be down 1000 today. Some support down 500.

[Bobby Finstock]

Everyone got their Dow 15000 hats ready?

[4matic]

/\Is that a US Ski Team pin?

[MontuckyFried]

"It's the Economy, Stupid: Why the Stock Market Is Nothing to Worry About"
http://www.businessweek.com/articles...y-is-just-fine

It’s natural to worry when the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index experiences its worst three-day loss since 2011 and the Dow Jones Industrial average hits a six-month low. But your job is likely to be safer than your portfolio. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are still looking for the U.S. economy to grow at a healthy 3 percent pace in the last three months of 2014 and at the same clip in 2015.

There’s a simple reason for that, as my Bloomberg News colleagues, Rich Miller and Simon Kennedy, wrote on Oct. 13. Foreign sales last year accounted for 46 percent of the revenue of companies in the S&P 500, leaving them highly exposed to troubles abroad. Investors are selling shares because they fear that foreign sales will slump because of recurrent weakness in Europe, a falling growth rate in China, and a protracted slump in sentiment in Japan.

The overall U.S. economy is far less dependent than the S&P 500 companies on what happens abroad. Most of what Americans produce is sold to other Americans; exports account for just under 14 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. is far more insulated, according to 2013 World Bank data, than Germany, where exports are 51 percent of GDP, the U.K. (31 percent), or China (26 percent).

I think we'll be just fine. Just ride this silly roller coaster out. It'll go back up soon.

[Benny Profane]

"It's the Economy, Stupid: Why the Stock Market Is Nothing to Worry About"
http://www.businessweek.com/articles...y-is-just-fine


I think we'll be just fine. Just ride this silly roller coaster out. It'll go back up soon.

The equity markets do not reflect the strength of our economy. It's a world economy, and we sell an awful lot of stuff and services outside our borders. Also, with the dollar rising dramatically, our products and services will be harder to sell.
Without incredibly low interest rates and subprime lending in the auto industry, our economy would be in a total funk.

[rod9301]

in the short term, there is no correlation between the economy and the stock market.

the problem is that the market us priced for perfection, thanks to the liquidity provided by the fed.

and priced to deliver negative returns over the next 7-8 years.

could go down a lot, or it could stay at the same level for many years, while earnings go up, so eventually we could have p/e ratios in the single digits.

the case p/e 10 year average is 25, with a median around 16, and low around 5-7.
and it is a very good predictor of future returns.

[4matic]

That's a top in bonds. Gonna take some heat to get back below 2%

Russell 2000 put in a good low too.

[4matic]

NFLX down $110 22% after earnings.

[Benny Profane]

That's stupid. As though HBO isn't already available on devices.

[DougW]

Serious question: how low does the price of oil have to go before the Bakken and the Alberta tar sands shut down?

Two totally different things. Bakken very short life span so if everybody stops drilling majority of production will dry up in 3 years. Oil Sands very long time horizon, 25-30 year plants. Yes if oil price is low nobody has extra cash flow to build new plants so no increase in production. Just to pay expenses , labour and fuel is not that high, $25ish , so nobody will stop producing esp with natural gas prices so low. During the last down turn, I worked for a company that finished the plant and was rewarded with low construction costs whereas the delayers had to fight for resources to restart Engineering and pay way more for construction. But that only works if you have the cash.

edit to add- Also the way Alberta royalty works is that it takes most of the cream when prices are high so with low prices the royality rate is very low so the price has to go super low in order for it to make it not worth while to steam those boilers.

[Hugh Conway]

in the short term, there is no correlation between the economy and the stock market..

wrong.

anyways, interesting to note some stocks of nerd beers piling up and a slowdown in the nerd grocery high end products right now (now going back to ~ Memorial day). know a couple businesses giving 10% or 20% discounts for cash purchases. heard several Bay Area highend dealers were cold calling to move product. everything is, however, local

[neufox47]

wrong.

anyways, interesting to note some stocks of nerd beers piling up and a slowdown in the nerd grocery high end products right now (now going back to ~ Memorial day). know a couple businesses giving 10% or 20% discounts for cash purchases. heard several Bay Area highend dealers were cold calling to move product. everything is, however, local

It cant be that bad... Is it? Save the beer!

Short on the Euro and enjoying the dividends on almost recession proof crd.a. Only real risk is of theor credit dries up or there are no disasters globally.

[iceman]

highend dealers of what?

[Hugh Conway]

cars - like Ferrari. stupid brain. I dunno, beer moves weird anyways.

[abraham]

wrong.

anyways, interesting to note some stocks of nerd beers piling up

I've seen that up here as well but just assumed it was because some of the beers were just not as good as before and some are stupidly high priced until no one buys.

[hitek79]

If this shit continues, you'll never see rates rising in the next decade. How the fuck could that happen. Europe is falling into a serious depression, Japan is on the edge of a cliff, and the mother of all credit bubbles in China is now popping.

The banks may be paying people to take out a mortgage if this continues.

What's your prediction for rates short term. Next 6-8 months?

[4matic]

almost recession proof crd.a. Only real risk is of theor credit dries up or there are no disasters globally.

Stock is down 20% since April.

[liv2ski]

What's your prediction for rates short term. Next 6-8 months?

30 year fixed at 3% - 3.50% Your welcome.

[4matic]

30 year fixed at 3% - 3.50% Your welcome.

Coastal crap boxes to the moon!

[BmillsSkier]

As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. is far more insulated, according to 2013 World Bank data, than Germany, where exports are 51 percent of GDP, the U.K. (31 percent), or China (26 percent).

So, you're telling me I bought my German car too early this year? Shit.