Real Estate Crash thread

[13]

Yeah I know, the old timers sure like to remind me.

[comish]

In my neck of the woods we are easily at or beyond the peak.

Just signed doc's on a refi of my Mammoth condo which is up from the bottom, but well down from the peak still. F'me this lender's underwriting was a nightmare. i have some perspective as this is the 4th loan I have done in the last year. Had to get two rate lock extensions, but we are still closing on 3.5% 30yr fixed for a 2nd home, condo loan. Instead of them paying me to do the refi I had to pay them a bit. At least everything is negotiable and I told them to eat a large amount of the extension fees. They were asking for old taxes 2.5 months into the process. Asking about credit inquiries in July that hit my credit report in April. etc. etc. Annoying... Their loan doc signing took 2 F'n hours because of all their BS. Most of the past were 45mins to 1hr, but they had us notarize something like 6 different documents!?!?

Psyched to have long term fixed debt at rather attractive rates...

[chatton18]

A few good charts for your consideration. I wish the purchase chart went further back.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/dat...lications.aspx

Purchases are way higher back in 05/06. No correlation really with interest rates. If I get some more time later i'll post up a graph.

[chatton18]

In my neck of the woods we are easily at or beyond the peak.

Just signed doc's on a refi of my Mammoth condo which is up from the bottom, but well down from the peak still. F'me this lender's underwriting was a nightmare. i have some perspective as this is the 4th loan I have done in the last year. Had to get two rate lock extensions, but we are still closing on 3.5% 30yr fixed for a 2nd home, condo loan. Instead of them paying me to do the refi I had to pay them a bit. At least everything is negotiable and I told them to eat a large amount of the extension fees. They were asking for old taxes 2.5 months into the process. Asking about credit inquiries in July that hit my credit report in April. etc. etc. Annoying... Their loan doc signing took 2 F'n hours because of all their BS. Most of the past were 45mins to 1hr, but they had us notarize something like 6 different documents!?!?

Psyched to have long term fixed debt at rather attractive rates...

Don't know where your neck of the woods is, but the LA Metropolitan Statistical Area (LA and Orange Counties) are still 28% below their peak according to the Case Shiller index. Denver and Dallas just broke through their previous highs with this past release (May 2013 data) which is noteworthy.

[comish]

Don't know where your neck of the woods is, but the LA Metropolitan Statistical Area (LA and Orange Counties) are still 28% below their peak according to the Case Shiller index. Denver and Dallas just broke through their previous highs with this past release (May 2013 data) which is noteworthy.

So. Santa Monica. We are easily at or above the peak for tear downs, starter homes, and top end in my zip code. My appraisal was up 20% in 6 months from November '12 to April '13, and as is usual these days, it was likely conservative. That said, I don't necessarily think the value went up that much in the 6 mo's, but that is what the appraisal showed when I refi'd again. Liking that 3.375% Jumbo Jumbo 30yrs fixed and that they paid me $4k to refi

I don't disagree that LA as a whole is still down, but like most things in real estate, location, location, location.

[cramer]

Yep, there is a lot going on that would indicate we hit a top in the May-July area. The hedge funds that were buying REO's sight unseen have backed off. Inventory pretty much everywhere is increasing. Mark to Market rules come back on line in 2015, so banks will need to sell the REO's they have been sitting on for years, rather than continue to slowly dole out their inventory. Rates are going up and wages continuing to stagnate. Any big changes will not happen overnight, but 2014 will be interesting for the economy and real estate.

After giving this a lot of thought, I would encourage young families to buy with the lowest down payment possible. Having a free and clear home before retirement is a very important goal to hit. Buying with as little cash down as possible is prudent in market tops, in the event values tank and you decide to do a strategic default.

Hey man, can you pm me when you get a chance. Its getting out of control out here. I'm getting a little overwhelmed. All of the sudden houses smaller than mine are sellling for like 320K. I know i said i was in for the longhaul. But fuck, im in over my head now. Thats alot of money to not take a look at. Fucking bay area....i really didnt think it would shoot up this quick. Now im thinking to rent this shit out, get a little apt and stockpiling cash for the next meltdown in 5 years and pouncing again. Or, just sell and pay cash on a little shitty house on the coast and call her a day at 39 up in wa or or. You gotta love cali...wow

Or do i stick with the original plan. 11 more years till my daughter graduates and evaluate then?

You've been through a few of these cycles but i am going to assume you've had a little more financial backing than i have. Whether it be you make alot more money or your family invested with you. Either way, looking for some advice.

[iceman]

I don't see why you'd rent it out, you'd still leave yourself vulnerable to the next downturn. If you can take profit now and move and be happy, that's something to think about seriously. Nobody can really predict what the cycles will be exactly, so look at real numbers instead. What do you owe, what can you sell for, what would you have to spend on a new place?

I saw an interview with some Japanese billionaire businessman a while back and they asked the secret of his success, and he said, "My secret is I never made as much as I could have, but I always sold at a profit." In other words he didn't try to time the top, which is damn near impossible, he just looked at what he could make by selling, and if he thought it was enough, he sold.

The other alternative is just ride the wave. If your family is happy, and if you can handle the debt you have, then you can just roll the dice and stop worrying about it. You need a place to live and prices will fluctuate, just see what happens down the road.

Either way, sitting on the edge of your chair always worrying about what's the exact best moment to sell is an uncomfortable way to live.

[Pow4Brains]

You need a place Either way, sitting on the edge of your chair always worrying about what's the exact best moment to sell is an uncomfortable way to live.

This is the best advice in this thread.


Sent from my SCH-I535 using TGR Forums

[up an down]

Yes, Dollar index is the same as it was almost 25 years ago and has been sidewise for almost three decades.

not disputing your viewpoint but the index can fluctuate..here is part of todays comments from an advisory company that i subscribe too...

The CRB index continued its decline as the ag markets declined sharply while
the metal markets tried to recover and energies closed mixed. The Chinese PMI
index was mildly better than expected at 50.3% - showing continued expansion
in their manufacturing sector. The US economy added 162,000 non-farm payroll
jobs in July while the US unemployment rate fell to a 4.5 year low at 7.4%. As
the US unemployment rate dips closer to 7% during the 4th quarter, the odds
increase that the FED will start
to taper down its QE3 bond
buying program. This will spark
a rally in the US dollar. Our
next downside CRB price target
is the 2009 lows at 340-350. A
bottom is not expected until
late 2013. The ags have been
the downside leaders to date,
but pressure in the metal
markets will likely persist. The
only commodity that has not
entered a bearish price trend is
the energies due to concern for
Mideast unrest. A test of the
early July lows is expected
during the last half of August.

[4matic]

Hey man, can you pm me when you get a chance. Its getting out of control out here. I'm getting a little overwhelmed. All of the sudden houses smaller than mine are sellling for like 320K. I know i said i was in for the longhaul. But fuck, im in over my head now. Thats alot of money to not take a look at. Fucking bay area....i really didnt think it would shoot up this quick. Now im thinking to rent this shit out, get a little apt and stockpiling cash for the next meltdown in 5 years and pouncing again. Or, just sell and pay cash on a little shitty house on the coast and call her a day at 39 up in wa or or. You gotta love cali...wow

Or do i stick with the original plan. 11 more years till my daughter graduates and evaluate then?

You've been through a few of these cycles but i am going to assume you've had a little more financial backing than i have. Whether it be you make alot more money or your family invested with you. Either way, looking for some advice.

If you like your house don't move and being a landlord sucks imo.

[4matic]

not disputing your viewpoint but the index can fluctuate.

Ten percent swings over a 30 year period is insignificant. Tradable, but insignificant compared to the talk of impending dollar doom you hear so much about. As emerging economies grow the dollar should go down over time and is healthy. Euro/USD looks like it is ready to break out higher if you ask me.

[liv2ski]

I don't see why you'd rent it out, you'd still leave yourself vulnerable to the next downturn. If you can take profit now and move and be happy, that's something to think about seriously. Nobody can really predict what the cycles will be exactly, so look at real numbers instead. What do you owe, what can you sell for, what would you have to spend on a new place?

I saw an interview with some Japanese billionaire businessman a while back and they asked the secret of his success, and he said, "My secret is I never made as much as I could have, but I always sold at a profit." In other words he didn't try to time the top, which is damn near impossible, he just looked at what he could make by selling, and if he thought it was enough, he sold.

The other alternative is just ride the wave. If your family is happy, and if you can handle the debt you have, then you can just roll the dice and stop worrying about it. You need a place to live and prices will fluctuate, just see what happens down the road.

Either way, sitting on the edge of your chair always worrying about what's the exact best moment to sell is an uncomfortable way to live.

Cramer, this is very good advice. My situation is likely very different from yours, as my RE holdings are pretty much free and clear. No kids and mid 50's, so I could cash out tomorrow and be in a really good place.

Keep an eye on what is happening around you. No sense selling into a rising market unless like the investor and I, the numbers work for you. I don't expect the market to turn around and tank in the next year, rather moderate and tank beyond that, but that is aways away. However, so many sources are predicting big increases in values in CA next year, don't listen to me, but watch what is happening and respond accordingly.

[MontuckyFried]

I saw an interview with some Japanese billionaire businessman a while back and they asked the secret of his success, and he said, "My secret is I never made as much as I could have, but I always sold at a profit." In other words he didn't try to time the top, which is damn near impossible, he just looked at what he could make by selling, and if he thought it was enough, he sold.

That is really awesome advice. Too many people get greedy, and even when they could make a hefty profit they hang on to it thinking it will go higher and higher, taking out home equity loans in the process, and then the inevitable crash happens. Shoulda sold it when you could've doubled your money, suckers!

We have a couple properties that we have a particular price in mind. When things get that high (which they have before, and even far exceeded it), then we are dropping them right away and cashing out. If the prices fall before that happens, then oh well. We keep riding out that roller coaster until it happens again. It will definitely be there someday, and beyond. If not, we're still happy. Appraisals on similar properties are already up 35% since when we bought.

I remember hearing a call on the Dave Ramsey radio show, and they were like "Boohoo. We 'lost' like 100k on our house by not selling in time." Dave Ramsey retorted, "So let me get this straight. You bought your house for 250k, it's value went up to around 600k, then you sold for 500k? You still DOUBLED your money in like 3 years you morans!" Call was from California. If you sold your home for significantly more than you paid for it, you are not LOSING money. Sheesh. Is that sort of greed what keeps perpetually wrecking that market?

[cramer]

Cramer, this is very good advice. My situation is likely very different from yours, as my RE holdings are pretty much free and clear. No kids and mid 50's, so I could cash out tomorrow and be in a really good place.

Keep an eye on what is happening around you. No sense selling into a rising market unless like the investor and I, the numbers work for you. I don't expect the market to turn around and tank in the next year, rather moderate and tank beyond that, but that is aways away. However, so many sources are predicting big increases in values in CA next year, don't listen to me, but watch what is happening and respond accordingly.

i need to talk to our real estate agent so i have her mls access again. The reality is, im staying here. But geez, alot of money is getting thrown around now.

[liv2ski]

Just received this update on Tahoe Real Estate:
"The market has been consistently cool for several weeks. Demand levels are low relative to the available inventory. It's a Buyer's market and prices continue to fall. Look for a persistent shift in Market Action before prices plateau or begin to rise again".
In another words, the top was hit in Tahoe, watch out below.

[skier666]

Given the current prices in the SF Bay Area, my gut reaction is that people are tapping out on their primary home. I know I did. On the flip, I do know one family that bought in Squaw but continue to rent in SF due to rent control.

The amount of building projects going on right now in SF proper is nuts. There are cranes everywhere from Russian Hill down to SOMA to Mid-Market through Hayes Valley all the way into the Castro.

http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2013/0...nstruction.php

[Kevo]

Yep, there is a lot going on that would indicate we hit a top in the May-July area. The hedge funds that were buying REO's sight unseen have backed off. Inventory pretty much everywhere is increasing. Mark to Market rules come back on line in 2015, so banks will need to sell the REO's they have been sitting on for years, rather than continue to slowly dole out their inventory. Rates are going up and wages continuing to stagnate. Any big changes will not happen overnight, but 2014 will be interesting for the economy and real estate.

After giving this a lot of thought, I would encourage young families to buy with the lowest down payment possible. Having a free and clear home before retirement is a very important goal to hit. Buying with as little cash down as possible is prudent in market tops, in the event values tank and you decide to do a strategic default.

That only works in a non-recourse state like California. You can't do a strategic default in recourse states like Colorado.

[Kevo]

3 5/8ths is great, but keeping things in perspective, rates are still super low historically speaking.

And prices have been near historical highs.

[liv2ski]

That only works in a non-recourse state like California. You can't do a strategic default in recourse states like Colorado.

I am fairly certain that in 2009 Congress passed a law that gave all a pass on the default of a primary residence through 2012 and it was extended into 2013. My point was if the shit really hits the fan like it did in 2009, federal laws are passed to help out those that were financially reckless (low down payments).

I was interested to see a few pieces on Obummer and the Senate wanting to do away with FNMA and Freddie Mac, who by the way purchase 70% of the MBS. Not that I believe it will happen, but if it does, conventional low down financing will be a thing of the past and rates will definitely go way up.

[iceman]

And prices have been near historical highs.

Maybe very locally, but certainly not nationally or in the composite of the biggest markets. Actually home prices are about where they would be if you take away the big bump of the last bubble and consider the buoying effect of low rates, and certainly well off the high. There's actual data out there: http://www.spindices.com/indices/rea...me-price-index

[iceman]

I was interested to see a few pieces on Obummer and the Senate wanting to do away with FNMA and Freddie Mac, who by the way purchase 70% of the MBS. Not that I believe it will happen, but if it does, conventional low down financing will be a thing of the past and rates will definitely go way up.

What does that statement even say?

"In the unlikely event that all the earth's water boiled away into space, a lot of people would be thirsty."

Freddie just reported a $5 BIL profit for the quarter, I think it's safe for a bit.

[Benny Profane]

That profit is a mirage. It's the same bullshit as it being a private company that actually operates as a normal business and should reward it's shareholders and executives a share of it's fictional profits. If it wasn't for the billions of dollars of taxpayer money that has funded it since inception and bailed it out recently, it wouldn't exist. It still owes us a whole lot of money, but the high executives are making millions. And, no matter what any politician says, especially our president who is still doing campaign speeches, it cannot be allowed to fail or go under, because it will take our economy and probably the world's with it. Just imagine if the average home buyer had to pay 50% down, or even all cash, within a five to ten year loan, as it was before the government decided to get into the mortgage biz after the depression. Nobody, and I mean nobody could afford to think about buying a house anywhere near today's pricing. So, yeah, Fannie/Freddie won't go away anytime soon, because it can't.

[iceman]

Okay, so to summarize, don't worry about it.

[Benny Profane]

Yeah, pretty much.

Hey, I'm looking at buying a condo.

[Hugh Conway]

Okay, so to summarize, don't worry about it.

"that condo in summit county won't be on fire sale unless a big fire hits"