Is the stock market going to tank?

[up an down]

Dell and Apple have remarkably similar P/E right now. Who do you think has the brighter future? Right now it's not that AAPL's a prophet so much as the other manufacturers are retarded.

Tumblr - worth a billion?

when a social network company can use it's own pricey stock, instead of a billion in cash, to buy a tumblr, why not?

[Benny Profane]

when a social network company can use it's own pricey stock, instead of a billion in cash, to buy a tumblr, why not?

Because, in the end, it all comes crashing down. RE: AOL/Time Warner.

[up an down]

Because, in the end, it all comes crashing down. RE: AOL/Time Warner.

so what if it crashes? any stock not used to buy another company would crash as well.. 6 of one, half a dozen of the other

[Hugh Conway]

when a social network company can use it's own pricey stock, instead of a billion in cash, to buy a tumblr, why not?

It's Yahoo and it's all cash (supposedly)

[iceman]

Apparently the Tumblr guys are no dummies.

Unlike the morons of all time, the idiots at Groupon who turned down a $6 BIL offer.

[up an down]

It's Yahoo and it's all cash (supposedly)

(drying myself after you threw cold water on my uniformed rhetoric) screw you and your facts.....
i think the primary reason for buys like this is the lucrative short term financial incentives for upper management to do deals, lots of pie in the sky sweet talk from the investment consultants.. the $ that fall into the laps of the few inflates their egos, their self assessments, and helps make it easy for them to believe the self generated hype/hope

[13]

Y'all should check out MTN for growth.

[Hugh Conway]

Looking towards the wrong BRIC?
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/201...and-break-ins/

With consumer defaults on the rise and confidence among shoppers at a three-year low in Brazil, the nerves are starting to show.
Chaos broke out across at least 12 states over the weekend after rumours spread that the government was planning to suspend the nationwide Bolsa Família social welfare programme. Panicked crowds gathered outside branches of Caixa Econômica Federal, the state-run bank that disburses the benefit via a special debit card, believing that Saturday was the last day to withdraw funds before the programme was shut down. In the state of Maranhão in Brazil’s poorer north-eastern region, local media reported that angry residents even destroyed several branches of the bank after their cash machines ran out of money.

eh, maybe not:
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/201...bigger-bubble/
another ~9% for China's housing

[neufox47]

Trying to figure out if I should even bother putting money in anything but company stock.

Invest a set amount per week for a year, they take the whole pot and purchase stock at the lower of the stock prices as of July 1 or June 30 next year, less 15%. Plus they give us the dividend for the year at the total amount purchased, which amounts to 3%-4%. So basically a guaranteed 18% return for that year. Biggest downside is that if I take it out right away I pay income taxes on all gains. Wait two years and it turns to a capital gain.

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[Benny Profane]

My number one rule is to never buy my company stock. Opposite of diversification. I enjoyed an Enron like experience with mine around 2000, and couldn't do a thing about it. I didn't buy it, BTW, it was given to me in the form of 401k match and profit sharing. At least I didn't lose my job, which is typical and, of course, a double hit if your company implodes.

[schuss]

Trying to figure out if I should even bother putting money in anything but company stock.

Invest a set amount per week for a year, they take the whole pot and purchase stock at the lower of the stock prices as of July 1 or June 30 next year, less 15%. Plus they give us the dividend for the year at the total amount purchased, which amounts to 3%-4%. So basically a guaranteed 18% return for that year. Biggest downside is that if I take it out right away I pay income taxes on all gains. Wait two years and it turns to a capital gain.

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Do you already get 401K matching etc. ? If so, it may be a good place to park your "extra" savings.

[4matic]

Trying to figure out if I should even bother putting money in anything but company stock.

Invest a set amount per week for a year, they take the whole pot and purchase stock at the lower of the stock prices as of July 1 or June 30 next year, less 15%. Plus they give us the dividend for the year at the total amount purchased, which amounts to 3%-4%. So basically a guaranteed 18% return for that year. Biggest downside is that if I take it out right away I pay income taxes on all gains. Wait two years and it turns to a capital gain.

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Nothing wrong with paying tax now. It's still a great gain.

If your goal is to lock the 18% gain you can "sell outside the box" which is somewhat risky unless you have the capital to back it up. Of course, that's if you are allowed to. Options strategies might work too but there's more math and calculation involved and again, if you are allowed to.

http://www.briefing.com/investor/lea...ainst-the-Box/

[Mazderati]

My number one rule is to never buy my company stock. Opposite of diversification. I enjoyed an Enron like experience with mine around 2000, and couldn't do a thing about it. I didn't buy it, BTW, it was given to me in the form of 401k match and profit sharing. At least I didn't lose my job, which is typical and, of course, a double hit if your company implodes.

The other side of the coin is buying into a company of which there is intimate knowledge. Many have become very wealthy doing so.

[Benny Profane]

The other side of the coin is buying into a company of which there is intimate knowledge. Many have become very wealthy doing so.

Yes, but, many more have lost a lot.

[iceman]

Yes, but, many more have lost a lot.

I don't know how you quantify that. I suspect the truth is in the middle as usual.

[Benny Profane]

Well, that belief keeps hedge funds in Ferraris and NBA players in bankruptcy.

[iceman]

I don't follow. NBA players don't invest in their companies. I thought it was Ferraris, posses and Cristal that put NBA players into bankruptcy.

[Benny Profane]

Hedge funds and private equity make stupid money convincing people who think they're smarter because they have money that they are worth 2 and 20, even though they suck at beating the market. NBA players, along with most athletes, are awful investors, because they think that getting in the ground floor of a company is the only way to make money.

[The Suit]

The other side of the coin is buying into a company of which there is intimate knowledge. Many have become very wealthy doing so.

I was a cofounder, board member, and officer of a public company, and I had no idea what the fucking stock price was going to do.

[Hugh Conway]

Uhhh - take the 18% and reinvest into something else.

[4matic]

Hedge funds and private equity make stupid money convincing people who think they're smarter because they have money that they are worth 2 and 20, even though they suck at beating the market. NBA players, along with most athletes, are awful investors, because they think that getting in the ground floor of a company is the only way to make money.

Hedge funds were originally supposed to be just that; a hedge that smooths risk on both sides. They migrated to trying to outperform in the last two decades and now are failing at both.

[Benny Profane]

Warren Buffet considers them compensation schemes.

[Mazderati]

I was a cofounder, board member, and officer of a public company, and I had no idea what the fucking stock price was going to do.

Then the idea that company value and prospects aren't always realized in stock price isn't profound. Happy employees, happy management, a deep pool of capable talent, transparent communication, and an overall environment where everyone wants to make the company successful are often overlooked in my limited experience.

Considering all options, especially options in which you're well versed, seems like a much more reasonable strategy than disqualifying your company's own stock simply because it's your company's own stock.

[Mazderati]

Warren Buffet considers them compensation schemes.

Buffet cut his teeth at what many consider the first contemporary hedge fund. His first partnerships were also structured with fees, though admittedly different.

[neufox47]

Uhhh - take the 18% and reinvest into something else.

Yea, then I have to pay like 40% taxes on it. If stock price remains static, I make another 13% over the next two years with dividends and tax avoidance. This year the stock went up 40% so I stand to lose a bunch in taxes. So that is the challenge. Try to maximize my gains with a significant amount of my wealth in one basket or take less but its safer. Thinking ill leave it in until I get uncomfortable with the stock or I hit the two year mark. Then start selling it and moving it to an IRA.

Company matches 50% of 401k up to 7.5%. So I've maxed that out.


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