Is the stock market going to tank?

**liv2ski** · 05-07-2013, 06:24 PM

Two things that would make my life complete. A 30%+ correction in Vancouver RE and the USD/CDN. I think I would have to insist we move back home. But the US stock market??? Everyone is saying up up and away. I really missed it waiting for the big short to come my way. Fucking Bernank.

**Benny Profane** · 05-17-2013, 06:18 AM

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/201...99-comparison/

**iceman** · 05-17-2013, 08:16 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/201...99-comparison/

Guy has a way with words..."This contrasts with today, where almost every sector is now participating in the advance in a rolling, rotating, sexually undulating manner not unlike the midriff of a belly dancer."

I think his basic point is right, but I'm still getting a little hedgy, I stayed put all the way through from '06 though now but now I'm fucking old. A 20% correction would hurt.

**Benny Profane** · 05-17-2013, 08:34 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

Guy has a way with words..."This contrasts with today, where almost every sector is now participating in the advance in a rolling, rotating, sexually undulating manner not unlike the midriff of a belly dancer."

I think his basic point is right, but I'm still getting a little hedgy, I stayed put all the way through from '06 though now but now I'm fucking old. A 20% correction would hurt.

Well, his basic argument is that this is nothing like 1999. Qualcomm going up 2619% in one year. Wow. Ain't nothing like that today. Closest is Apple a year or so ago, and that is arguably the world's best company holding more cash than some sovereigns, not Pets.com. Facebook isn't making anybody big money.
Yeah, a 20% down would hurt, but, your sentiment is a reason that there is no bubble, too. Boomers hold 80% of financial assets, and, at this stage in their lives, have to play it safe. That is, those who actually have significant investments, and are in equities. That is a small minority of that group. Most people don't have squat saved.

**schuss** · 05-17-2013, 08:34 AM

The way I look at it is:
do you know anyone out there partying on this? Do you know anyone NOT being careful?
Only weird bubble I've seen is bitcoins.

**iceman** · 05-17-2013, 08:55 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Well, his basic argument is that this is nothing like 1999.

I hear that, but he's also saying what it is, which is a broad-based rise that seems supported by conditions and that should have legs in part because it's not rashly speculative in nature. And while I agree with that in general, there's still a shit-ton of stuff that could go badly wrong (like always), so my course is to accept less upside for more downside protection. I'm in but I'm not 30 anymore. Hell I'm not 50 anymore. Nothing earth-shattering, just trying to pick my line through the bumps.

**Benny Profane** · 05-17-2013, 09:01 AM

A correction is definitely around the corner. 17% before even half the year is over is ridiculous. I'm astounded that Europe is being ignored again. I would expect the next shock coming from there, and within the year.

Edit: we have gone six months without a 5% correction. We are due. It's natural, and should bounce back.

Hugh Conway · 05-17-2013, 10:57 AM

Originally Posted by schuss

The way I look at it is:
do you know anyone out there partying on this? Do you know anyone NOT being careful?
Only weird bubble I've seen is bitcoins.

Are you no longer resident in the Bay Area? Two Big Ones: Social Media, Craft Beer.

**4matic** · 05-17-2013, 11:03 AM

Other than Elliott Wave forecasting a high around 1661 (I don't understand EW and don't follow it) the only caution I have is that we move into a quarterly expiration cycle next month.

**schuss** · 05-17-2013, 01:12 PM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Are you no longer resident in the Bay Area? Two Big Ones: Social Media, Craft Beer.

I'm talking about non-regional stuff, as drawing any conclusions from the bay area would just mean that the world is truly insane. You don't see an excess of stupid money in the social space other than incestuous bay area money. There's also the understanding that there needs to be a plan for revenue, compared to '99 when no such things were required. Social gaming got stupid for a year or two, but people are realizing how spotty it is investment-wise.

Craft beer? They're just taking share from the macros, so it isn't really reliant on market expansion and I don't know of anyone that would buy stock in craft beer. People sink money into it because it's their passion, not because they're looking to make money.

**Timberridge** · 05-17-2013, 01:29 PM

Originally Posted by schuss

Only weird bubble I've seen is bitcoins.

and TSLA.

**schuss** · 05-17-2013, 01:40 PM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

and TSLA.

From what I've seen, they've gotten over the hump. Overvalued? Yes. Dangerous to company? Not really, unless Musk wants to cash out, which I'm guessing he doesn't.

Hugh Conway · 05-17-2013, 02:41 PM

Originally Posted by schuss

Craft beer? They're just taking share from the macros, so it isn't really reliant on market expansion and I don't know of anyone that would buy stock in craft beer. People sink money into it because it's their passion, not because they're looking to make money.

1) That's not the view of a number of brewers I've talked to and
2) You lose money, you lose money.

this is clearly the "this time it's different" bay area defensiveness though, so carryon. Facebook, Linkedin, Pandora, Groupon, etc never took any money from anyone outside the Bay Area.

**schuss** · 05-17-2013, 02:48 PM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

1) That's not the view of a number of brewers I've talked to and
2) You lose money, you lose money.

this is clearly the "this time it's different" bay area defensiveness though, so carryon. Facebook, Linkedin, Pandora, Groupon, etc never took any money from anyone outside the Bay Area.

My point is just that you don't have the widespread pets.com style hysteria about investing in social ventures.
If brewers are planning to make money, that's their problem, as there's definitely no sure fire way to make a brewery succeed. I like what NH has done in that arena where they loosen up the rules around really small-scale brewing.

Hugh Conway · 05-17-2013, 02:59 PM

Originally Posted by schuss

My point is just that you don't have the widespread pets.com style hysteria about investing in social ventures.

pets.com raised $300 million from investors, IPO'd for $82.5 million. There's plenty of social bullshit that's in that range - a good one would be Color Labs. Fer fucks sake Instagram sold themselves for a billion.

**schuss** · 05-17-2013, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

pets.com raised $300 million from investors, IPO'd for $82.5 million. There's plenty of social bullshit that's in that range - a good one would be Color Labs. Fer fucks sake Instagram sold themselves for a billion.

Instagram sold for a billion because facebook are morons/it undermined their core business of picture sharing.

Don't even get me started on Color, as that falls into my "Incestuous bay area wankery investing". Pets.com was just a random name I pulled, but I think today you see a lot less "lets jump on this wonder stock", especially with the latest darling of Apple falling from their perch.

**Benny Profane** · 05-18-2013, 06:27 AM

Originally Posted by schuss

latest darling of Apple

Really. Lumping Apple in with those other companies? "Latest darling"?

**iceman** · 05-18-2013, 06:57 AM

Apple's been amazing but I'll be damned if I can figure out what's next for them. Cellphones and tablets and notebooks are basically a good as they need to be, ipods are stupid now, what's "the next big thing"?

**schuss** · 05-18-2013, 09:22 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Really. Lumping Apple in with those other companies? "Latest darling"?

While they've had solid fundamental businesses, Apple has traditionally been hilariously overvalued because of the cult mystique of Steve Jobs.

**Hott Butt Mud** · 05-18-2013, 09:33 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

Apple's been amazing but I'll be damned if I can figure out what's next for them. Cellphones and tablets and notebooks are basically a good as they need to be, ipods are stupid now, what's "the next big thing"?

Security devices. Home automation.

It's kind of already there, but wait for a company like Apple to come along and make this mainstream.

I think we're still 10-15 years away from this, but it's coming.

**schuss** · 05-18-2013, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

Security devices. Home automation.

It's kind of already there, but wait for a company like Apple to come along and make this mainstream.

I think we're still 10-15 years away from this, but it's coming.

The problem is that you need all the devices to work together with a common standard and you need the house to be wired for it.

**4matic** · 05-18-2013, 09:46 AM

Apple has recurring income from cloud and media sales. TV delivery is still up for grabs.

**Hott Butt Mud** · 05-18-2013, 09:48 AM

Originally Posted by schuss

The problem is that you need all the devices to work together with a common standard and you need the house to be wired for it.

Exactly. That's why it's not quite ready. Common standard won't be tough. Just need to have an IEEE Standard.

**Benny Profane** · 05-18-2013, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by schuss

While they've had solid fundamental businesses, Apple has traditionally been hilariously overvalued because of the cult mystique of Steve Jobs.

Traditionally? You could have bought that stock in 2000 for 18 bucks. Agree it went up too far, but, still. And it had nothing to do with a "cult mystique", and everything to do with creating devices that everyone wanted, immediately.

I am skeptical of the future without Jobs, though. He left his yes men in charge, it seems.

Hugh Conway · 05-18-2013, 10:05 AM

Originally Posted by schuss

While they've had solid fundamental businesses, Apple has traditionally been hilariously overvalued because of the cult mystique of Steve Jobs.

Dell and Apple have remarkably similar P/E right now. Who do you think has the brighter future? Right now it's not that AAPL's a prophet so much as the other manufacturers are retarded.

Tumblr - worth a billion?