Is the stock market going to tank?

[huckbucket]

How does one graduate from a wealth manager that just picks a bunch of funds and says "hold on" to a broker that invests in individual equities? Just a matter of having enough cash? What kind of difference in returns can one typically realize assuming a decent broker. How do you avoid getting pushed into the stock de jour by said broker (or maybe that's the point)?

[4matic]

How does one graduate from a wealth manager that just picks a bunch of funds and says "hold on" to a broker that invests in individual equities? Just a matter of having enough cash? What kind of difference in returns can one typically realize assuming a decent broker. How do you avoid getting pushed into the stock de jour by said broker (or maybe that's the point)?

Loaded question(s). Typically it's the opposite. A wealth manager will usually require around $500k just to sign up. "Wealth Management" is the new buzzword. For decades the measure of a stock broker has been Assets Under Management (AUM) rather than commissions generated; now more than ever. You can always find someone to churn your money trading but terminal annual return peaks out around 14-15% and that is very very rare. So, if you can beat the indexes by 1-2% annually over a twenty year period you are a superstar. Don't buy investment sizzle. Ever.

When you hear investment managers talk about what they like or recommend it is what they are overweight or underweight VS. their benchmark.

[Benny Profane]

How does one graduate from a wealth manager that just picks a bunch of funds and says "hold on" to a broker that invests in individual equities? Just a matter of having enough cash? What kind of difference in returns can one typically realize assuming a decent broker. How do you avoid getting pushed into the stock de jour by said broker (or maybe that's the point)?

Don't do it, dude, unless you have some rock solid inside info or just want to have fun gambling. If it's the gambling angle, budget a certain amount you can lose entirely, like a trip to the casino. You'll just be another muppet, and they'll suck as much as they can from you.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/03/...morgan-unit-2/

[4matic]

Overnight action in US stocks with futures down 1%+; first time in quite a while. June stock futures have a 2% discount to cash right now. Last Friday quarterly expiration was really busy with a lot of churn. Go time.

[Benny Profane]

Cyprus. Forgotten in a week.

[4matic]

Cyprus. Forgotten in a week.

What about JPM? That's big.. Although, they wouldn't have been called to testify Congress if there was any real problem. If, JPM gets pummeled to the mid-low $40's buy it for dividend growth.

[iceman]

Go time.

Where are we going?

[Hugh Conway]

Where are we going?

Inverse tampon carrier cock ring sign suggests it's hell in a bucket

[4matic]

Where are we going?

Implied volatility is only about 1%. We've exceeded that in overnight trading. Could go either way. A move up this week and expect another 5-10% higher. Downside is contained about 10% lower so its even money bet at this point. Range expansion is likely either way.

[Hugh Conway]

Don't use up all of your magic Lamia


though the truth may bury this the truth will carry us

[4matic]

Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred – from one perception to another. Like magic.

[Hugh Conway]

If you're a wall street welfare queen.... sure. Actual business people "make" money by producing productivity and useful devices, inventions, software and ideas. Otherwise... yer just a shitbag in a bazar to be fucked with

[4matic]

Wake up, will ya pal? If you're not inside, you're outside, OK? And I'm not talking a $400,000 a year working stiff flying first class and being comfortable, I'm talking about liquid. Rich enough not to waste time. A player, or nothing.

[iceman]

Implied volatility is only about 1%. We've exceeded that in overnight trading. Could go either way. A move up this week and expect another 5-10% higher. Downside is contained about 10% lower so its even money bet at this point. Range expansion is likely either way.

Forgive my lack of market savvy but it appears you are saying that there's about a 50/50 chance things will go up or down but the move will be limited to about 10% unless it isn't. Is that about it?

[4matic]

Forgive my lack of market savvy but it appears you are saying that there's about a 50/50 chance things will go up or down but the move will be limited to about 10% unless it isn't. Is that about it?

Yes. Expect higher volatility within a 20% range but don't look for derivative insurance rates to expand that much. It's an asset allocation market.

[huckbucket]

^^^
Last two posts brought the LOL's.

[liv2ski]

For those paying attention, I am just waiting for the Wall Street brokers to spin the banking crisis in Cypress into "Bullish for the Market" as surely people with cash will want to get their money out of those nasty banks and errrr buy stocks instead. And with the FED pumping us to DOW 20k , so all the little people will feel prosperous, this just in from Tyler.

"Houston we may have a problem: with the DJIA trumpetedely hitting new all time highs day after day in March, one would expect that its traditional second derivative - US Consumer Confidence, would be at all time highs as well, or close thereby. One would be wrong, because according to the Conference Board, March consumer confidence plunged to 59.7 from 69.6, and well below expectations of a 67.5 print. Both components of the index dipped, with both the present situation and expectations indices sliding from 61.4 and 72.4, to 57.9 and 60.9, respectively. And just to make sure the S&P ramps to all time highs on ongoing miserable economic, corporate profit and, of course, sovereign insolvency news, we got both New Home Sales, dropping from 431K to 411K, missing expectations of 420K, and the Richmond Fed also missing expectations of a 6 print, dropping from last month's 6 to 3. All in all, if this latest round of ugly and rapidly getting worse economic data doesn't send the S&P to new all time highs, nothing will. Well, perhaps another European country going broke may do the trick..."

[Benny Profane]

Yeah, but, it's all about chasing yield in a zero rate environment. Every time Europe shows another crack, the US equity and bond market just looks that much better. It's all that money sloshing around in the world, trying to make money. Now that the Russians have been screwed in Cyprus, do you think that they're going to put their cash in some sketchy tax haven, or someplace more reliable?

[LeeLau]

^^^
Last two posts brought the LOL's.

4matic brought the bullshit in either MSN ejaculate under the desk highest order fashion - or - was superbly tongue in cheek

[liv2ski]

Lee, your a class guy to give him the option of #2.

[4matic]

Cannuck bringing the Zerohedge stupid again

Inside or outside:

[Hugh Conway]

Awwww yeaaaahhhh 4matic's gone full wannabe with the Wall Street reference!

china slipping, cyprus imploding will the contagion catch? or is an even more manufactured housing bubble in the US going to turn things around? Junior Analysts get your spreadsheets in now. The real ones please, not the sanitized versions without your losses.

[4matic]

Awwww yeaaaahhhh 4matic's gone full wannabe with the Wall Street reference!

Only because you missed the joke first time around? You old geezers: Benny, Hugh, Liv2ski are so predictable. Do you ever think for yourself?

[Hugh Conway]

Do you ever think for yourself?

now that's a funny joke.

if i'm predictable it's because shit hasn't really changed in the course of this thread. same issues, same wannabe daytraders pimping their portfolio on ski boards like losers. FUCK YEAH 4MATIC IT WAS DOW 20000!

I'm super bullish on equities and continue to be:

1. Warren Buffet said buy index funds.

2. The Dow Theory has turned super bullish. Richard Russell turns bullish.

"We saw something that is extremely rare [on April 20 and April 25], in fact I can't remember ever having seen this before. What I'm referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder... My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead." Russell acknowledges that what he has written will surprise many who are accustomed to his long-standing caution about the stock market. He imagines that we will want to respond by saying "But Russell, you're usually so conservative, so restrained. How can you possibly talk this way? Now you're talking about a worldwide boom. Are you smoking something we don't know about?"

Russell's response:

"I stopped smoking over 40 year ago. No, I'm simply relating to you my interpretation of what the market is saying. I believe the markets talk in their own secret language. And when the market does something that has never been done before, that serves as a 'kick in the pants' for me. It's telling me, 'Russell, wake up. Something very unusual is going on. Get up out of your chair -- and pay attention'."

3. Sentiment remains skeptical.

4. M&A activity surging.

5. China loosens investment restrictions in foreign equity.

6. The super bulls like Henry Dent and Don Hays of the Hays Advisory have been calling it right. They expect Dow 20000 by 2010 and I tend to agree at this point. Read the forecast here:

http://www.hsdent.com/download/dow20000.pdf

[4matic]

now that's a funny joke.

if i'm predictable it's because shit hasn't really changed in the course of this thread. same issues, same wannabe daytraders pimping their portfolio on ski boards like losers. FUCK YEAH 4MATIC IT WAS DOW 20000!

Dead flat out predictable. Real estate..scam. Stock market..scam. Everything a fraud. Bitter old men.

I'm not a daytrader fwiw and I'm wrong all the time. Dent is a bear now fwiw.