Is the stock market going to tank?

[iceman]

I need a new Hugh Conway Pro Model Sarcasmometer, I thought you were serious and I was trying to figure it out

[Mazderati]

If my math is right, a short could net a decent gain.

[4matic]

wtf? what happened to your target fund strategy?
and what did you move the equity $ to?
anyone jumping on the E U country bond bandwagon?

"I took another look at it and I changed my mind!" Gordon Gekko

A target date strategy is still my goal. First trade in five months..

I didn't like the intermarket reaction after the fed announcement today and decided to make a change. Also, bonds reached initial resistance and PTTRX turned negative on the year yielding 4.11%. PTTRX has never had a down year. I'm looking at this as shortish term trade; weeks to months.

[4matic]

If my math is right, a short could net a decent gain.

But you have to pay the dividend and interest.

[up an down]

"I took another look at it and I changed my mind!" Gordon Gekko

A target date strategy is still my goal. First trade in five months..

I didn't like the intermarket reaction after the fed announcement today and decided to make a change. Also, bonds reached initial resistance and PTTRX turned negative on the year yielding 4.11%. PTTRX has never had a down year. I'm looking at this as shortish term trade; weeks to months.

'99 and '94 were down years.....http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=pttrx

[Mazderati]

Eight dividend payments left. Assuming $4 for those eight payments results in $32 in total remaining dividends. If the cost to short is 21.5% of the roughly $75 share price, that's $32.25. So, while the dividends would be knocked out by the cost to short, the final distribution would still be $9 per share.

Edit to say this is in ten minutes of reading. There is bound to be hole I haven't considered.

[4matic]

'99 and '94 were down years.....http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=pttrx

Thanks, I didn't look that close. I know the fund though and they have a hedged strategy. I moved 8% from equity to blended income.

[4matic]

Updated current mix: 15% cash, 55% income, 30% equity. Getting busy..

[up an down]

Updated current mix: 15% cash, 55% income, 30% equity. Getting busy..

what's your take re todays fed minutes reaction?

[4matic]

what's your take re todays fed minutes reaction?

Orderly. No mixed messages. Selloff on fed news has been the pattern lately while Gold has been telegraphing the expectation for days. Bonds had little to no reaction so I'm not sure it's more than a one day event. No action taken. I would sell a little more equity towards cash if we rally tomorrow and Friday. Gold found some support at $1560 where I expected. If that doesn't hold then $1400 in a hurry. Bonds have been sideways for a while with 2% resistance now support and I don't expect much more action in rates until after the sequestration unless there is a major equity selloff. I would commit some cash to equity near the gap at 1420-1450.

Edit: Feature today was the dollar index back above 81. That's big.

[Benny Profane]

I don't get it. If rates went up, the exodus from bonds, which, btw, is at an almost fever pitch at the moment, will just turn into a stampede. Where will that money go? Into equities, right? Where else? Cash? Doubtful. So, why a market tank? Irrational, Captain.

[char]

Thoughts on March 1st sequester assuming they don't fix it in the next week?

[liv2ski]

"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 103.0%
US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...e-dow-was-here

[Benny Profane]

Please, lord, just get me up to 10% for the year. I'm almost there. I promise to go all safe and cuddly and cash for the rest of the year. 10%, that's all. I promise.

[4matic]

Zerohedge=Zeroprofit

Zerohedge conveniently forgets the most important element of stock prices. Earnings:


Forecast forward GAAP for 2013 $1110

For Comparison here are the DJIA earnings in prior years:


2012 Actual GAAP Earnings $877 15.4 6.49%
2011 Actual GAAP Earnings $724 17.9 5.59%
2010 Actual GAAP Earnings $831 13.9 7.18%
2009 Actual GAAP Earnings $624 16.7 5.99%
2008 Actual GAAP Earnings $661 13.3 7.52%
2007 Actual GAAP Earnings $831 16.0 6.25
2006 Actual GAAP Earnings $720 17.3 5.78%
2005 Actual GAAP Earnings $476 22.5 4.44%
2004 Actual GAAP Earnings $592 18.2 5.49%

My only complaint is I'm underweight equity right here..

[4matic]

Please, lord, just get me up to 10% for the year. I'm almost there. I promise to go all safe and cuddly and cash for the rest of the year. 10%, that's all. I promise.

100% hedge with dividends and your are there..

[4matic]

Fwiw, I got my question asked to Warren Buffett on CNBC yesterday. Called my name and everything. Booyah!

[Benny Profane]

Zerohedge conveniently forgets the most important element of stock prices. Earnings:


Forecast forward GAAP for 2013 $1110

For Comparison here are the DJIA earnings in prior years:


2012 Actual GAAP Earnings $877 15.4 6.49%
2011 Actual GAAP Earnings $724 17.9 5.59%
2010 Actual GAAP Earnings $831 13.9 7.18%
2009 Actual GAAP Earnings $624 16.7 5.99%
2008 Actual GAAP Earnings $661 13.3 7.52%
2007 Actual GAAP Earnings $831 16.0 6.25
2006 Actual GAAP Earnings $720 17.3 5.78%
2005 Actual GAAP Earnings $476 22.5 4.44%
2004 Actual GAAP Earnings $592 18.2 5.49%

My only complaint is I'm underweight equity right here..

Oh, c'mon, this isn't earnings. Well, a little. It's the Fed. Zero rates. Chasing yield.

[Benny Profane]

Fwiw, I got my question asked to Warren Buffett on CNBC yesterday. Called my name and everything. Booyah!

He's losing his mind. He said last week that newspapers are a good investment. Newspapers.

[iceman]

If you think of them as content providers instead of guys that print shit on paper it might not be so crazy. did you see the nytimes.com article on the Stevens Pass avalanche? Powerful.

[guroo270]

I need a new Hugh Conway Pro Model Sarcasmometer, I thought you were serious and I was trying to figure it out

Iceman doesn't do sarcasm apparently

[4matic]

He's losing his mind. He said last week that newspapers are a good investment. Newspapers.

Sort of on the line of my question. And, he never said they were a good investment. He said they were profitable and important to the communities they operate in. Berkshire's entire investment in newspapers is $550m. That's walking around money for BRK. And, he said a mortgage is a good investment at todays rates so that confirms he's crazy by your thinking.

[Benny Profane]

If you think of them as content providers instead of guys that print shit on paper it might not be so crazy. did you see the nytimes.com article on the Stevens Pass avalanche? Powerful.

Sure, the NYT will survive, the WSJ will survive, (despite Murdoch), but, small town or even larger market papers? No fucking way. The stink of death has been about them for years. Thanks, Craigslist.
Benny is one of the few people he knows who actually sits down and spreads a paper out every day. I'm old. Nobody under 45 touches newsprint anymore, and, even Benny is seriously inches away from buying an IPad to get the NYT in the 21st century way, because that fucker just can't seem to wake up in time and get me my goddamn paper on time. And stop throwing it into my BUSHES!

[4matic]

Sure, the NYT will survive, the WSJ will survive, (despite Murdoch), but, small town or even larger market papers? No fucking way. The stink of death has been about them for years.

Berkshire is the name of the original textiles company Buffett bought. When he bought it he knew it was obsolete and destined to fail. The cash flow from that investment got him into the insurance business and the rest is legend.

[iceman]

Iceman doesn't do sarcasm apparently

he may not get sarcasm but he has a damn good memory, that guroo.