Real Estate Crash thread

[XXX-er]

haven't a lot of people had to move for work but they couldn't sell their house so they rented it out and rented a house where ever they moved and the owner of the house they rented is doing the same thing ... musical houses across America ?

[4matic]

haven't a lot of people had to move for work but they couldn't sell their house so they rented it out and rented a house where ever they moved and the owner of the house they rented is doing the same thing ... musical houses across America ?

Short Sale rules were just amended to address that.

[Benny Profane]

haven't a lot of people had to move for work but they couldn't sell their house so they rented it out and rented a house where ever they moved and the owner of the house they rented is doing the same thing ... musical houses across America ?

Some think this has contributed at least a point to UE. People are stuck. One wonders how many couples are living a thousand miles apart as one stays back to mind the fort.

A lot are finding how difficult it is to be an absentee landlord from a thousand miles away. Simple repairs require expensive labor hired over the phone. This is why this whole private equity landlording thing just won't work. The landlords I know do it themselves. Otherwise, the margins go negative fast.

[Cono Este]

I've had my house on the Saint Louis market since May. Im dropping the price 2.5% a month, and still no interest. I think I will take a 10% loss from buying it in 2007. Plus the realtor. I'm not underwater, and I don't care to rent it and have someone fuck it up for another year. In fact, had I dumped it before the assholes who rented it fucked it up, id probably have done better. It takes a coupel of years to bring the yard back etc..

[Kevo]

I really dont think interest rate matters. I think the job market controls who is going to buy a house and who isnt. Rent is very high now. People have to be taking a step back and be like, hmm, if i bought a house, my monthly is cheaper. My .02 is who cares about the interest rate, its still VERY low, people that can buy are buying and will continue buying. Its the owners of houses right now that i think will change the market once they are ready to sell and upgrade and or move.

For the average homeowner, I think interest rate is a lot more important than you're letting on.

A slight increase in interest rate can mean a several hundred dollars a month for the average person, who is just barely able to qualify for a mortgage from a debt to income ration perspective.

They'll still pay the same per month (~35-42% of income for all debt), but now they have to buy less house. Plus, with student loans eating up a huge percentage of the next generations DTI ration (not to mention the normal stuff- credit cards, car loans, etc), there will be even less qualified home buyers out there. I think there will be many markets where people expected to retire off of their homes and those people just won't be able to.

People will be stuck, and at some point they'll have to sell. In my market (Boulder) RE is so expensive and there are so many people who buy get into the top end of what they qualify for. A 1 bedroom condo is $160k+.

[meatdrink9]

Here's a photographic update on one of our RE projects. We bought a couple of old commercial buildings in a historic district last year and are building a bar in one of them. We're bringing the first rooftop bar to town and it's very near completion. Still needs furniture and we still need to finish the interior of the rooftop bar building. We finished the other building (as far as we're going to take it) and have put it on the market. Lots of interest to lease, but no legitimate bites on buying.

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?s...1&l=d551e2a334

[Cono Este]

I see alot of variable loans being used. 1.75%. Qualified people though, and they are banking the savings in higher yielding bonds. I tell the guy who came up with that caper that its a TEXAS HEDGE, aka a double long. But he looks at me like a fucking deer.

[Benny Profane]

Here's a photographic update on one of our RE projects. We bought a couple of old commercial buildings in a historic district last year and are building a bar in one of them. We're bringing the first rooftop bar to town and it's very near completion. Still needs furniture and we still need to finish the interior of the rooftop bar building. We finished the other building (as far as we're going to take it) and have put it on the market. Lots of interest to lease, but no legitimate bites on buying.

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?s...1&l=d551e2a334

Awesome. Do you have a license? Is that hard to get where you are? When will the bar open?

I think I stayed in that Marriott once.

[liv2ski]

We're bringing the first rooftop bar to town and it's very near completion. Still needs furniture and we still need to finish the interior of the rooftop bar building.

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?s...1&l=d551e2a334

MD9, how about the liquor license? Did you get that issue resolved? If yes, how far away from opening are you? The roof top looks awesome and I know you guys will put together a great bar. Get er done, I want to party with you doods there this winter.

[meatdrink9]

Benny, No license yet, but our application (that alone is quite the hurdle) is in. The next license will be issued end of Sept. The next after that will be end of Nov. I'm thinking the Nov meeting is our first shot as I doubt we'll have the main floor construction of the bar completed before the Sept meeting. Also working with my legislator to tweak some things in January (if needed).

liv2ski, As mentioned above the liquor license is really our last hurdle, but there have been 5 huge ones in this process. We had to change local building guidelines (first roof top bar/deck in the county) and get all sort of approvals to do this in a historic district. I think we're 60 days from completion of renovations. We've still got one floor to complete, but it's well underway. You can party with us at the bar anytime... we just may not be able to charge you for the liquor. We've already thrown a couple of good parties on the roof.

[Shredhead]

That looks really nice J!

Running a bar/restaurant is a FULL time job! I'd either lease it out or get some really good management, so you can still spend some time with the family.

[shroom]

about to close on a ridiculously low 3.5% refi. and two houses for sale on my block for tens of thousands more than mine supposedly is worth (via tax assessment, zillow, etc).

my parents just closed @ 2.85, moving on to a new place out of the house i grew up in. refi on the lake place is happening as well, not sure if its that low or not yet.

[meatdrink9]

Shredhead, Yeah we're leasing the main floor to a restaurant so they'll handle the food for us. The bar will only be open 3 nights week and then available for private events the rest of the week. I plan to spend 1 night a week there and handle some of the accounting. The rest will be turned over to others to manage. The idea is more free time instead of less. I've got some good people I trust in place.

[OldLarry]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...mortgages.html

[powder11]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...mortgages.html

It's crazy how the stock market has been up for quite sometime, yet they're cutting jobs. So much for trickle down economics.

[4matic]

It's crazy how the stock market has been up for quite sometime, yet they're cutting jobs. So much for trickle down economics.

Wall Street jobs is a lagging indicator. Market typically bottoms well before layoffs peak.

Sound familiar?:

In the late 1980s the robust growth of the New York metropolitan region halted abruptly. In response to fluctuations in global capital markets and mounting Third World debt, the banking and securities industries of Wall Street initiated net layoffs of more than 16,000 employees between July, 1987, and December, 1988. As these job losses reverberated through an intricate series of local interindustry linkages, they accelerated a profound decline of the regional economy. This paper utilizes input-output analysis and linear algebraic extensions to explore the associated job and service income reductions by industry, occupation, and county of residence. While total losses were largely confined to the financial community, the occupational composition of layoffs was disproportionately concentrated among unskilled workers.

[OldLarry]

It's crazy how the stock market has been up for quite sometime, yet they're cutting jobs. So much for trickle down economics.

Volume has been less than half what it was at it's peak for a loooong time. Melt up. No IPOs. No deals.

[OldLarry]

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/...-five-year-low

[liv2ski]

Volume has been less than half what it was at it's peak for a loooong time. Melt up.

Yep, only the FED buying to support the S&P and 4matic, everyone else is out.

[Benny Profane]

Haven't all of those people been replaced with high speed bots?

[ass-to-mouth]

I've had my house on the Saint Louis market since May. Im dropping the price 2.5% a month, and still no interest. I think I will take a 10% loss from buying it in 2007. Plus the realtor. I'm not underwater, and I don't care to rent it and have someone fuck it up for another year. In fact, had I dumped it before the assholes who rented it fucked it up, id probably have done better. It takes a coupel of years to bring the yard back etc..

LOL...I love Cono Este. His life sounds like one endless shitshow.

[4matic]

Yep, only the FED buying to support the S&P and 4matic, everyone else is out.

Don't fight the Fed. My contrarian nature is a little worried that traffic to Zerohedge.com is in steady decline:

http://siteanalytics.compete.com/zerohedge.com/

[liv2ski]

My contrarian nature is a little worried that traffic to Zerohedge.com is in steady decline

But like TGR, they are still #1 in their category? I will stick with the entertaining sites.
Edit: and more good news http://www.zerohedge.com/news/16oooooooooooobama

[Benny Profane]

Well, there's a lot of anti social young men who are pretty disappointed that we aren't Weimar Germany at this point, so they can go dig up the gold buried in their backyard and retire.

[liv2ski]

Well, there's a lot of anti social young men who are pretty disappointed that we aren't Weimar Germany at this point, so they can go dig up the gold buried in their backyard and retire.

Young men???? I doubt the young think about our $16T mess (really $60T with all the guaranteed shit we be on the hook for) nor do 99% of them have the resources to buy gold to bury in the parents back yard. And really, with 31% of the homes out there underwater with no equity, who can take a chance burying it in the parents back yard

http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/...n-homes-worth/

Despite Home Value Gains, Underwater Homeowners Owe $1.2 Trillion More than Homes’ Worth

Stan Humphries
May 24th, 2012

According to the first quarter Zillow Negative Equity Report, 31.4 percent of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are underwater (see figure 1). This is nearly flat on a quarterly basis, up only 0.3 percent, but down 1 percent since the first quarter of 2011. On average, U.S. homeowners owe $75,644 more than what their house is worth, or 44.5 percent more (see table 1). Almost 5 percent of homeowners with a mortgage in the nation owe more than twice what their house is worth (see figure 2). While a third of homeowners with mortgages is underwater, 90 percent of underwater homeowners are current on their mortgage and continue to make payments.

Well, fucking bravo sheeple.