Is the stock market going to tank?

[LeeLau]

yup - penny stock daytraders are spamming the AMR ticker around. It's basically a trading vehicle for them

[Hugh Conway]

The pension costs are just the latest trendy excuse from a sector that's perpetually fucked because of fuel expenses they can't mange well and debt (for a trendy little mint making op rightnow aircraft sale/leaseback). Of the 9 largest US carriers in 1990 all have declared bankruptcy; the only one of those 9 to exit the playing field without a merger or organized passing on of assets was Eastern airlines. This is zombie capitalism. Players need to exit the field and the field needs to be redesigned - or just reregulate certain routes and accept the consequences.

As an example of why things are fucked:
http://www.philly.com/philly/busines...are_hikes.html
as an industry they can't make money in competitive markets; the rest of society is unwilling to pay enough regularly to sustain the extortion fares.

As another example why AMR should get the death penalty:

Buried deep in American Airlines' Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing is a striking asset -- a town house in one of London's most expensive residential streets that property experts say could be worth up to $30 million.

The five-bedroom house in London's high-end Kensington district is a throwback to the airline's expansion two decades ago and stands a 10 minute walk from the former home of Princess Diana, with gentry and diplomats as neighbours.

UK regulatory filings show the house has been used as a residence for senior executives, including the current chairman and chief executive Thomas Horton, since the airline bought it in the early 1990s.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7BD02M20111214

what good reason do you have to own a townhome in london for senior executives in the current era? A: none.

[mobygrape]

The stock has to break out of the sideways channel at some point.

MSFT? Curious why you think this is the case? I also have owned this stock for some time. Price has been very stable. I don't see it as a growth stock. They have the a solid share of the desktop/laptop market, but have been late to the show in other areas ( Zune, web services/cloud computing, phone OS) or not had a strong showing. They have not been the first to market in several areas which has been a huge part of the Ipod/Iphone/kindle success story, IMO.

Would love to see them break out of the holding pattern. But have not seen anything in a few years to lead me to believe this will happen.

Not trying to disagree. Just trying to learn a bit from your posts and this thread.

[4matic]

MSFT? Curious why you think this is the case? I also have owned this stock for some time. Price has been very stable. I don't see it as a growth stock. They have the a solid share of the desktop/laptop market, but have been late to the show in other areas ( Zune, web services/cloud computing, phone OS) or not had a strong showing. They have not been the first to market in several areas which has been a huge part of the Ipod/Iphone/kindle success story, IMO.

Would love to see them break out of the holding pattern. But have not seen anything in a few years to lead me to believe this will happen.

Not trying to disagree. Just trying to learn a bit from your posts and this thread.

MSFT has earnings growth. The multiple continues to contract with the assumption that earnings will not continue to grow. I liken MSFT to IBM. IBM went sideways for many years and finally they were perceived to have value again. Also, Bill and Steve will be done with regular stock sales in teh next few years which weigh on the stock.

If Skype, Winphone, and XBOX media center grow above expectations that would also be a plus.

Stock action is constructive lately.

[Verde]

Since Natural gas is at lows that haven't been seen in ~10 years, I am contemplating investing in some stock/ETFs that could be longer term (2-5 years) winners.

I've looked at United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), but I don't have any experience with ETFs. I'm leery of the drilling companies,. There are some companies that do natural gas conversions for vehicles that I thought might be interesting (FSYS and CLNE), but they have their issues.

Any recommendations for investing in Natty gas?

[Brock Landers]

No on UNG...the way its set up sucks, you invest in forward-rolled futures contracts...so youre investing in the spread of month to month contracts widening/compressing as much as anything.

If youre bullish Nat Gas, check out Devon Energy (DVN) or Chesapeake (CHK). CHK has a little more upside as it has a higher debt component (more downside too) whereas DVN is a stronger balance sheet. Both are nat gas AND oil companies. Cabot Oil and Gas is good too, though valuations are troubling.

Also look at UNL...its like UNG without the roll problems as it spreads out contracts

[dos bolsas]

SD, baby

[4matic]

Since Natural gas is at lows that haven't been seen in ~10 years, I am contemplating investing in some stock/ETFs that could be longer term (2-5 years) winners.

I've looked at United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), but I don't have any experience with ETFs. I'm leery of the drilling companies,. There are some companies that do natural gas conversions for vehicles that I thought might be interesting (FSYS and CLNE), but they have their issues.

Any recommendations for investing in Natty gas?

Just trade the futures. It's the purest play. Performance bond is $2800 so you should have at least $20k to play a one lot. ANOTHER 52 week low on the commodity but also a nice reversal into the close today in the face of weak oil. NG has been widow maker for the longs. Brock is right on UNG. It's a short term play at best.

MSFT: Booyah! 52 week high.

Financials turning higher in the last hour today with Dow Industrial 1.5% from a four year high. Hard to call a top in here..

Crude Oil broke down from a rounded top so the chance of a big rally is contained for now and that supports equity.

[4matic]

SD, baby

Down 6% in an up NG market?

[iceman]

P.S. I say yes. DJIA will be below 13,000 again sometime this summer.

....aaannnd, almost 5 years later it's almost within sight again. Just a little 5-year dip.

[SkiCougar]

Since Natural gas is at lows that haven't been seen in ~10 years, I am contemplating investing in some stock/ETFs that could be longer term (2-5 years) winners.

I've looked at United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), but I don't have any experience with ETFs. I'm leery of the drilling companies,. There are some companies that do natural gas conversions for vehicles that I thought might be interesting (FSYS and CLNE), but they have their issues.

Any recommendations for investing in Natty gas?

i wouldnt do that.

despite historical lows, ng isnt going anywhere higher; mild winter, low demand, massive oversupply. one of my fin advisors could actually see the ung etf going away because the demand to buy it is just going to drop further and further.

i'd suggest oil stocks and oil is likely to go higher all the way thru the summer.

[liv2ski]

i'd suggest oil stocks and oil is likely to go higher all the way thru the summer.

Well, to give props to 4matic, months ago he mentioned oxy, I liked it and got in at 75. For the last few months I have been selling covered calls on it to pick up a little income. Thanks 4matic, if I ever see you on the hill, I got your bar tab.

[4matic]

Well, to give props to 4matic, months ago he mentioned oxy, I liked it and got in at 75. For the last few months I have been selling covered calls on it to pick up a little income. Thanks 4matic, if I ever see you on the hill, I got your bar tab.

Thanks Man.. I'm always happy when someone pulls money out. Oil and the oil stocks look a little heavy right here in the short term. OXY only yields 1.8% and is more leveraged to oil price.

[LeeLau]

FB hanging 4matic jibber jabber wasabi framizdat - down 3 days in a row - probably bounces off low today unless Zuckerberg fibopasta line activated

Trans. Probably bounces today. But I'm going biking so have fun with it.

[LeeLau]

FB hanging 4matic jibber jabber wasabi framizdat - down 3 days in a row - probably bounces off low today unless Zuckerberg fibopasta line activated

Trans. Probably bounces today. But I'm going biking so have fun with it.

Damn I'm good. My paper STRONG BUY was at the bottom and I made 12 Whistler seasons passes on my bike ride on this one trade just by calling the Candles

[retirwntm]

You just simul Doji'ed the shit out of that one LL. When are you on Fast Money, bro?

[LeeLau]

PLEASE subscribe to my newsletter

[LeeLau]

OK last post in 4matic style for now. GRPN full blown single digit aids! Oh how good it looks on such a piece of corn studded shit company

[4matic]

Thanks for the shouts.

I went to market risk at 1340 SP500. Even on the year now.

Shoulda taken that 401k loan I need for real estate last month.

I'll take some losses selling next week for sure..

[Hugh Conway]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...5-million.html

A Ferrari 250 GTO bought by U.K. television and radio host Chris Evans for about $18 million in 2010 has been sold for a million-dollar price “in the high 20s,” dealers said.
“I’ve heard of eight Ferraris selling for a total of $135 million during the last eight weeks,” John Collins of the U.K., Ascot-based dealership Talacrest Ltd. said in an interview.

better listing here:
http://www.finecars.cc/en/editorial/...ash=72ab76e426

there's been big numbers in the art market too. People putting money into tangible best of best assets ahead of a plunge?

[huckbucket]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...5-million.html

better listing here:
http://www.finecars.cc/en/editorial/...ash=72ab76e426

there's been big numbers in the art market too. People putting money into tangible best of best assets ahead of a plunge?

Stick with tea leaves. Much more reliable.

[huckbucket]

Oh ... and the scab starts to rip today (6-4)

Gonna be painful. Hold onto your hats and watch for the bottom!!

[Hott Butt Mud]

Moody's to Downgrade 15 Banks tomorrow.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47903018

Time for another tankin'.

[liv2ski]

Moody's to Downgrade 15 Banks tomorrow.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47903018

Time for another tankin'.

No, surely that is bullish as then Ben has to open the QE3 to Infinity flood gates.

[Brock Landers]

downgrades are already priced in, interesting to see just how far. noone gives a shit about the ratings agencies anyway anymore.

Looks like MS isnt going to get cut that badly

Moody's to Downgrade 15 Banks tomorrow.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47903018

Time for another tankin'.