Real Estate Crash thread

[Skistack]

This is huge. If you hear that foreclosures are dramatically slowing down, don't interpret that as a market getting healthier. MERS touched 50% of mortgages.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02...-mers-invalid/

So how many years is this going to prolong the foreclosure mess? CSPAN should be interesting if Congress tries to legislate the MERS business model into law.

[Skistack]

Just read an article that REIT owned multifamily housing may start to care more about rent increases than occupancy. If I understood correctly, they may make more money keeping occupancy rates at 93% but charging more rent without the worry of being at 100%. My whole philosophy has always been to slash rents if we have units sutting for a month...interesting idea though.

I was with one of the larger REIT's for 10 years and have been with a regional firm for the last two. The goal is to maximize collections (obviously). Our philosophy is if occupancy is over 95%, the rents are too low, money's being left on the table. But we're managing 50+ unit properties, so the economics are different than that of a small property.

Most markets we're in have rents trending up. Many folks are locked out of home ownership now (foreclosure, bad credit, no down payment) and there's not alot of new multifamily product coming online. 2011 will be a good year to be a landlord.

[cramer]

This is huge. If you hear that foreclosures are dramatically slowing down, don't interpret that as a market getting healthier. MERS touched 50% of mortgages.

The forclosures slowed down because the banks arent stupid this time. They'll slowly release their REO's on the market this time. Over years, not months. They cant take another hit like they did in 2008 and 2009. Low inventory of houses on the market will = bidding wars and higher prices. I didnt read the article, but i can guarantee you thats what they are doing. Its not rocket science here. Once things pick up they'll slowly start adding more of their REO's to the market. Until things pick up, they are going to sit on them or probably look at having property management company's rent them out. It seems like a wast to have houses collecting zippo. With that said, putting thousands of houses on the market with nobody to buy them would be an even worse choice.

[yonskion]

^^^^^^^
not sure I like the tone of your "they's", but that is exactly what is going on.
with Dodd-Frank kicking in a month and "QRM" on the horizon it's gonna be a great year around here.

[Hutch]

The forclosures slowed down because the banks arent stupid this time. They'll slowly release their REO's on the market this time. Over years, not months. They cant take another hit like they did in 2008 and 2009. Low inventory of houses on the market will = bidding wars and higher prices. I didnt read the article, but i can guarantee you thats what they are doing. Its not rocket science here. Once things pick up they'll slowly start adding more of their REO's to the market. Until things pick up, they are going to sit on them or probably look at having property management company's rent them out. It seems like a wast to have houses collecting zippo. With that said, putting thousands of houses on the market with nobody to buy them would be an even worse choice.

Foreclosure =/= listing for sale.

[cramer]

Foreclosure =/= listing for sale.

I'm not sure i understand. The house i bought sat uninhabited and not listed for 2 years. So the owner just walked and the bank didnt foreclose for 2 years? My house was built in 04, sold in 06, and i bought in 08. Per my neighbors, dude walked end of 06. Do school me on the whole foreclosure process and when banks have to list them. From what you are saying, banks are just letting people squat then. Geez, i should squat for a couple years. Id have 50 grand to put down on a house from squatting. after 3 years i can get the same friggin fha loan i got when i bought my house. Thanks for the info, hehe. (no im not going to do that but just shows the system is fucked up) Here's the info on my house though.

12/18/2008 Sold $230,000 -55.9% $125
06/13/2006 Sold $521,000 36.0% $283
06/24/2004 Sold $383,000 -- $208 Public Record

[ass-to-mouth]

NAR bloodsuckers may have over counted home sales by as much as 20% since 07. Iam shocked they would do something like this. SHOCKED.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...Tabs%3Darticle

[liv2ski]

More good news on the housing front>

"As of December, so almost three months ago, the housing double dip was getting increasingly worse. This was confirmed by the latest Case Shiller data, according to which the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 1.2% and 2.4%, respectively. The 20 City Composite printed at 142.16, the lowest since June 2009 when it was 141.75. Luckily, NAR's now completely disgraced Larry Yun is nowhere to be found in this release, from which we quote: "Data through December 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined by 3.9% during the fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index is down 4.1% versus the fourth quarter of 2009, which is the lowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2009, when prices were falling at an 8.6% annual rate. As of December 2010, 18 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to December 2009."

[Lonnie]

Good thing I signed papers to get my place SOLD yesterday PM. Came out on the + side ta boot. Enough so that we can pay off the wifes car and be debt free minus our current house...

[cramer]

More good news on the housing front>

"As of December, so almost three months ago, the housing double dip was getting increasingly worse. This was confirmed by the latest Case Shiller data, according to which the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 1.2% and 2.4%, respectively. The 20 City Composite printed at 142.16, the lowest since June 2009 when it was 141.75. Luckily, NAR's now completely disgraced Larry Yun is nowhere to be found in this release, from which we quote: "Data through December 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined by 3.9% during the fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index is down 4.1% versus the fourth quarter of 2009, which is the lowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2009, when prices were falling at an 8.6% annual rate. As of December 2010, 18 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down compared to December 2009."

im not sure whats bad about this. I use to piss that money away on a few months rent. Who cares if a house lost 10k in value. ive got that much cash in my pocket due to the write offs of owning a house.

[liv2ski]

im not sure whats bad about this. I use to piss that money away on a few months rent. Who cares if a house lost 10k in value. ive got that much cash in my pocket due to the write offs of owning a house.

Hey Brother, if your happy, I am happy for you. Just saying the trend is definitely down at this point and that is all I am putting out there for the mags. Now, likely isn't the time to buy in most of the country, unless you are scoring deals way below replacement cost and plan on owning the property for 10+ years IMO.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/d...in-california/

[yonskion]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
WORD!!
If you like your house who cares
equity in 2011 =

[Benny Profane]

You'll care if you lose your job and have to move.

[cramer]

Hey Brother, if your happy, I am happy for you. Just saying the trend is definitely down at this point and that is all I am putting out there for the mags. Now, likely isn't the time to buy in most of the country, unless you are scoring deals way below replacement cost and plan on owning the property for 10+ years IMO.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/d...in-california/

I agree, now is not the time to buy a house for the collective population. You should have bought one end of 2008 and on through 2009 when the government was handing out free money or basically a tax free loan for your down payment. (FHA) With that said, i would have to ask that if you had the money now for a 20% and can still lock in at 5% interest, why would you wait. Rates are heading north, not south. Housing prices cant drop that much more on the newer built houses. (2000 and beyond). Or do you have some data you can show me that houses sell for less then they cost to build? I'll also have to question that you suggest everyone keep paying rent, aka, paying someones house payment is a better option than buying one? Im all ears. Im not happy my housing value is dropping, but i am happy that at least i am putting some money away into a longterm savings account. my house isnt going to be worth nothing when im done. Id hope i could sell it for something. It will be more money than if i rented the rest of my life wont it?

Benny, job loss should be out of conversation. That can happen to anyone who bought a house 10 years ago or now.

EDIT: just caught the end of your post, owning for 10+. well thats the plan im on and everyone in the collective bay area should be on. Im on 15 year plan.

[Gaffney10]

what do you guys think the price/sqft for New Construction is in the Bozeman area at this time? We may look to build....cheap lot and build what we want...

[Benny Profane]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011...low-las-vegas/

[Benny Profane]

I agree, now is not the time to buy a house for the collective population. You should have bought one end of 2008 and on through 2009 when the government was handing out free money or basically a tax free loan for your down payment. (FHA) With that said, i would have to ask that if you had the money now for a 20% and can still lock in at 5% interest, why would you wait. Rates are heading north, not south. Housing prices cant drop that much more on the newer built houses. (2000 and beyond). Or do you have some data you can show me that houses sell for less then they cost to build? I'll also have to question that you suggest everyone keep paying rent, aka, paying someones house payment is a better option than buying one? Im all ears. Im not happy my housing value is dropping, but i am happy that at least i am putting some money away into a longterm savings account. my house isnt going to be worth nothing when im done. Id hope i could sell it for something. It will be more money than if i rented the rest of my life wont it?

Benny, job loss should be out of conversation. That can happen to anyone who bought a house 10 years ago or now.

EDIT: just caught the end of your post, owning for 10+. well thats the plan im on and everyone in the collective bay area should be on. Im on 15 year plan.

You're not getting it. If you lose your job today, and you're underwater on the mortgage,as 30% of mortgage holders are, you have to sell the palace at a loss in order to move beyond commuting distance for a new gig. Many economists think this is a doom loop like scenario contributing to UE. This is why the famously mobile and wired young workforce (if they have a job) are avoiding home "ownership" for now.

[4matic]

what do you guys think the price/sqft for New Construction is in the Bozeman area at this time? We may look to build....cheap lot and build what we want...

With the price of lumber and copper? My bet is many houses sell for less than replacement costs at this point.

[skiballs]

Every material supplier I have, has sent out price increase notices of 5% to 10%.
Don't forget building new is not just the land and house.
There are these things called permits, impact fees, taxes ( you start paying tax on the land the day you buy it) and the interest on construction loans is running 7%+ , if you can even get it.

[WICS]

Top page, bitches

[grrrr]

"Buy now, or you'll be priced out forever!!!"

Local news reporting home prices have fallen to below 2005 levels.

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011...lues-drop.html

[liv2ski]

With the price of lumber and copper? My bet is many houses sell for less than replacement costs at this point.

I wouldn't build new, due to current building costs. There is stuff in many parts of the country that can be had for below building/replacement costs and your getting the land for free. I know this doesn't answer your direct question, but I would look for a re sale and scratch the building idea. Just my 2 cents.

[cramer]

You're not getting it. If you lose your job today, and you're underwater on the mortgage,as 30% of mortgage holders are, you have to sell the palace at a loss in order to move beyond commuting distance for a new gig. Many economists think this is a doom loop like scenario contributing to UE. This is why the famously mobile and wired young workforce (if they have a job) are avoiding home "ownership" for now.

If i lost my job, id rent my house out and move into a 1 br apartment in the worst part of town if i had to. Monthly payments on houses are the same if not cheaper than paying rent right now. And thats bundling your taxes into your monthly. Who are the famous mobile and wired young adults you speak of that are avoiding home ownership? Every last one of my friends that didnt own a house, all bought them in the last 2 years. I just had a sister in law close on one 2 weeks ago. Everyone else i know lost their house because they were stupid and bought in 2004-2007 and got in way over their heads. Houses arent selling or being built right now because everyone that could get a loan, got a house when the getting was good.

I think you are the one who isnt getting it. You couldnt be any more off when you say wired young adults arent buying. Actually, they all did already.

[bucbanzai]

SW FL

Over 5M....good

1M to 5M...slow

500K _ 1M....really slow
500K - 1M condo.....30 sales a month when it used to be 300.

250K - 500K.....prices down 30% in two years, still too high. Sales down 50%.


But Hey, the Realtors are talking about what a great time it is to buy.

BTW rideit, anything priced over 1M is also quoted in Euro...

Wow, I went looking for this post in this thread and it is almost exactly 3 years old.

With the hudge caveat that ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL....


The lead article in todays paper is that median condo prices in Sarasota were down to $120,000. That is 13% in a year. At their peak in December 2006 median condo prices were $305,400. For you non-math guys that is a 61% drop. The foreclosures just keep on coming. Lots of cash sales as that is about the only way to buy anything these days.

Locally, prices have returned to 2000 levels. Ouch.

If you bought around here in 2008 you are down 25%.

It's hard to really put in a bottom when there are still so many bank foreclosures. Also, as was stated earlier Bank foreclosures =/= houses for sale. Banks are specifically trying to 'hold off' on selling as to not drive the market lower.

However, what I see in my commercial market is that Banks are ready to capitulate. Which means they are saying Fuck It, we need to move on. If we wait another year to unload this stuff off our books we wont get bonuses for another year. So lets dump it and then start moving forward. This could be an inflection point. DISCLAIMER: I am not making predictions because ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL, but after 5 years I think we are at the bottom.



PS I sure fucking hope so. I have tied knots in the end of my rope three times and am hanging on by my fingernails.

[Benny Profane]

Florida is proof that the boomers are totally fucked. You would think, since they are now turning 65 at the rate of 10000 a day, they'd be flooding into that state to snap up the awesome bargains, but, it isn't happening. They have no cash, and will work up north 'til the end paying off the HELOC. They certainly can't sell the house.
I read a theory recently that they already bought down there in the boom with said HELOC as they planned to live there, and now may be regretting. it. Sounds plausible.