Is the stock market going to tank?

Hugh Conway · 08-30-2010, 10:46 PM

Originally Posted by grapedrink

little fish? there probably isn't anyone on here that even qualifies as a minnow. any "traders" here that can claim their equity portfolio beat SPY over the last five years after factoring in transaction costs and taxes?

there are some. they post occasional wheat, not the constant chaff of the junior analysts

**liv2ski** · 08-30-2010, 11:47 PM

Originally Posted by grapedrink

i'm intrigued by the tgr "traders", if active fund managers with endless resources, decades of experience and dozens of full timer staffers dedicated to reading and analyzing data can't beat passive indexing over the long term.. how exactly does some part time tgr day trader do it?

www.compoundstockearnings.com

Not spam, I know quit a few people that make substantial returns using these guys techniques. I for one have been out of the market since May, but many people made lots of $$$ through July. Me, I am not so trusting of the market when the Plunge Protection Team is at work. I will wait for the clear shorting opportunity that is close.

**grapedrink** · 08-31-2010, 05:20 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

www.compoundstockearnings.com

Not spam, I know quit a few people that make substantial returns using these guys techniques. I for one have been out of the market since May, but many people made lots of $$$ through July. Me, I am not so trusting of the market when the Plunge Protection Team is at work. I will wait for the clear shorting opportunity that is close.

im not even going to begin to get into all the things wrong with that website but lets just look at this as simply and logically as possible. if you had a technique that would earn you 100% returns a year, why in the world would you waste a second of your time selling seminars? you'd obviously be a genius because you know how to not only beat the market but completely decimate it. a genius would obviously know there's about a million times more money to be made running a hedge fund than selling workshops online. even a retard would figure that one out pretty quick, just doesn't add up

**liv2ski** · 08-31-2010, 08:46 AM

Originally Posted by grapedrink

im not even going to begin to get into all the things wrong with that website but lets just look at this as simply and logically as possible. if you had a technique that would earn you 100% returns a year, why in the world would you waste a second of your time selling seminars? you'd obviously be a genius because you know how to not only beat the market but completely decimate it. a genius would obviously know there's about a million times more money to be made running a hedge fund than selling workshops online. even a retard would figure that one out pretty quick, just doesn't add up

Not 100% returns, but 3-6% monthly on the money you sell a covered call on, assuming your called out. There are times a prudent investor will not be anywhere close to 100% invested, so that will lower your returns at times. They do have techniques for generating returns in a downward market, but I honestly haven't put in the time to learn them.

Regarding your other comments, not everyone wants to be a hedge fund mgr. The guys that started that business are already very comfortable and do make plenty of money on the monthly subscriptions to the services they offer (tech analysis). I think they are very happy to be the big fish in their pond, knowing they offer a valid service to investors who are tired of getting bent over by wall street and their broker.
But whatever, everyone needs to find their own path to financial security.

**Benny Profane** · 08-31-2010, 04:01 PM

**Moeghoul** · 09-24-2010, 07:10 AM

1300 gold, 21+ silver, and a 2nd attempt at 11,000 on the dow. Commodities are in full bull mode. Giddy up.

**4matic** · 09-24-2010, 09:54 AM

Originally Posted by Moeghoul

1300 gold, 21+ silver, and a 2nd attempt at 11,000 on the dow. Commodities are in full bull mode. Giddy up.

Financials are the key. JPM above $40 and we'll be up 250 plus today.

Gold struggling with the dollar getting ripped is odd right here.

**Moeghoul** · 09-24-2010, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Financials are the key. JPM above $40 and we'll be up 250 plus today.

Gold struggling with the dollar getting ripped is odd right here.

Gold precedes the move. 1300 is a century mark, so I'm not surprised to see selling here by traders. I was dumping miners into the rally. USDX took a nosedive thru 81 support after the fed meeting. Jap intervention = FAIL.

**4matic** · 09-24-2010, 12:48 PM

Originally Posted by Moeghoul

Gold precedes the move. 1300 is a century mark, so I'm not surprised to see selling here by traders. I was dumping miners into the rally. USDX took a nosedive thru 81 support after the fed meeting. Jap intervention = FAIL.

Interevention only works, and it will work, if all the G20 participate like the Plaza Accord of 1985.

**Moeghoul** · 09-24-2010, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Interevention only works, and it will work, if all the G20 participate like the Plaza Accord of 1985.

the landscape has changed a bit in the past 15 years. Under the current political climate and financial problems, foreign CB's net sellers of US debt, talk about an SDR monetary unit, etc, I'd be amazed if the G20 could agree on anything.

Edit: Central banks are slow learners, but they're catching on. Hint: start dumping yer gold when it leaks out that the bank of Japan is buying gold.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39376353

**Moeghoul** · 09-29-2010, 03:56 PM

1310 is resistance. I got plenty of dough for a pullback into the 1260-1280 zone. USD is tumbling thru support levels.....almost daily. Mr. market is grunting hard to get to 11,000.

**Lizhnik** · 09-29-2010, 04:43 PM

Moeghoul, I appreciate your posts, but is there any way I could get you to change that avatar? Shit bugs me out every time I see it.

**sidewall** · 09-29-2010, 05:17 PM

did anyone seen this guy that predicts the Dow to hit 1000?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2273...y-not-possible

**4matic** · 09-29-2010, 05:27 PM

Originally Posted by sidewall

did anyone seen this guy that predicts the Dow to hit 1000?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2273...y-not-possible

I interviewed Precther on FNN in 1986 when he was a super bull calling for 3600 on the DJI. Who'd have thought?

I saw him yesterday on CNBC. 1000 is just a number to indicate how bearish he is. Until a cycle or something else changes that is the target. It is not a real prediction as such other things can change on the way down.

**boltonoutlaw** · 09-29-2010, 06:02 PM

Originally Posted by Moeghoul

the landscape has changed a bit in the past 15 years.

Lurking this thread, so thanks for the insights, but will point out to you number-crunchers that 1985 was 25 years ago...

**Moeghoul** · 09-29-2010, 07:20 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

I interviewed Precther on FNN in 1986 when he was a super bull calling for 3600 on the DJI. Who'd have thought?

I saw him yesterday on CNBC. 1000 is just a number to indicate how bearish he is. Until a cycle or something else changes that is the target. It is not a real prediction as such other things can change on the way down.

Prechter's been out to lunch for 9 years on the the gold and commodity run.

**Moeghoul** · 09-30-2010, 07:46 AM

Originally Posted by Lizhnik

Moeghoul, I appreciate your posts, but is there any way I could get you to change that avatar? Shit bugs me out every time I see it.

You're from Moscow, you should recognize her. It's the same babushka that sells you yer beets and potatoes at the veggie stand. ANd she stays. Try squinting.

**Moeghoul** · 09-30-2010, 08:18 AM

He's on the phone with the market makers, "Higher, bitches, higher!"

**Moeghoul** · 09-30-2010, 10:13 AM

Originally Posted by Lizhnik

Moeghoul, I appreciate your posts, but is there any way I could get you to change that avatar? Shit bugs me out every time I see it.

Ok, I retired her for the time being, but here's a parting shot for ya.

**Lizhnik** · 09-30-2010, 02:53 PM

Thanks man, she's seriously nastier than any babushka I've ever seen.

**Moeghoul** · 10-01-2010, 08:22 AM

Originally Posted by Moeghoul

He's on the phone with the market makers, "Higher, bitches, higher!"

POG......another new high ..1321...Stoke.

Push Mr. Market, Push!!!!! you can DOOOOOO it!!!!!!

**wcf3** · 10-01-2010, 04:29 PM

Originally Posted by grapedrink

little fish? there probably isn't anyone on here that even qualifies as a minnow. any "traders" here that can claim their equity portfolio beat SPY over the last five years after factoring in transaction costs and taxes?

Well, I don't suppose you'd count people who just had their money in a savings or money market account as 'traders', but they would have beaten the SPY.

Originally Posted by liv2ski

www.compoundstockearnings.com

Not spam, I know quit a few people that make substantial returns using these guys techniques. I for one have been out of the market since May, but many people made lots of $$$ through July. Me, I am not so trusting of the market when the Plunge Protection Team is at work. I will wait for the clear shorting opportunity that is close.

The technique these guys use is just using covered calls. (Selling a call on a stock position while buying the same amount of the stock required to 'cover' the call). A covered call has the same sort of payout profile as being short a put on the same instrument (limited gain if stock price goes up or only slightly down, possible loss of the entire nominal value of the stock value minus option premium if the stock price goes to zero).

The only difference is that the 'investor' puts up all the money that they could lose by buying the stock position while a put seller may sell his put on margin. Essentially, this technique has the same risk profile as any other sort of strategy that involves 'selling insurance':

Eat like a bird, shit like an elephant...