Is the stock market going to tank?

[liv2ski]

So I am surfing around reading up on Greece and find this comment.

"Greek politicians weren't alone in promising future benefits to voters. The average burden of debt, plus liability for pension and other social-service promises, averages 434% of GDP across the European Union. France, with its relatively generous social benefits, comes in at 549%. The United Kingdom stands at 442% and Germany at 418%. Spain, which has a bigger current deficit but relatively modest promises to its citizens, shows up in Gokhale's calculations at 244%.

And the United States? By these calculations, the debt-plus-promises burden comes to 890% of GDP. Move over Greece. Who's your daddy"?
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...rg.aspx?page=2

Holy fuckin shit

[BSS]

I dunno about all these futures and points and whatnot, but I do know that there's five thousand bucks less in my retirement account today than when I last checked it three weeks ago.

So, yeah. Put me in the "tank" column.

[Benny Profane]

"Greek politicians weren't alone in promising future benefits to voters. The average burden of debt, plus liability for pension and other social-service promises, averages 434% of GDP across the European Union. France, with its relatively generous social benefits, comes in at 549%. The United Kingdom stands at 442% and Germany at 418%. Spain, which has a bigger current deficit but relatively modest promises to its citizens, shows up in Gokhale's calculations at 244%.

You know, when I saw Paris a few years back, i thought, how the fuck do they do this? I come from NYC, with a density that would bother a well respected rodent, and everyone rushing around and acting like they'll rip your head off if you create a problem in their busy lives making money, and I come to a city with nothing taller than a silly but cool tower, and everyone sitting around drinking to all hours and just being awfully relaxed. How do they afford this? They're all living in the sweetest urban park in the world, and it's spotless. Well, awfully clean. How do they pay for it? I haven't bought anything French, and, I doubt many an American or Chinese has in years. What's up? I think I'm finding out now, slowly but surely.

[Hugh Conway]

I haven't bought anything French, and, I doubt many an American or Chinese has in years. What's up? I think I'm finding out now, slowly but surely.

Benny doesn't like Bordeaux or Cognac.

Wait - don't you do photo work? No french connection?

[liv2ski]

You know, when I saw Paris a few years back, i thought, how the fuck do they do this? I come from NYC, with a density that would bother a well respected rodent, and everyone rushing around and acting like they'll rip your head off if you create a problem in their busy lives making money, and I come to a city with nothing taller than a silly but cool tower, and everyone sitting around drinking to all hours and just being awfully relaxed. How do they afford this? They're all living in the sweetest urban park in the world, and it's spotless. Well, awfully clean. How do they pay for it? I haven't bought anything French, and, I doubt many an American or Chinese has in years. What's up? I think I'm finding out now, slowly but surely.

Benny, in Europe and Africa, France sells a boat load of products. Could be as small as some nice cheese or a bottle of wine, the Dynastars I like to ski, clothing/fashion, film, cars, aerospace for both civilian and military applications and bad ass nuclear reactors/fuel rod reprocessing plants and that is, I am sure, the tip of the ice berg. Maybe your kidding around with your comments, but if not, you need to travel more and have an open mind. I have always loved France and have a lot of respect for what the country has to offer. Someday, I too would like to sit around and talk with my friends all day while drinking coffee or wine.

Edit: just saw this in another thread: [nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUQI6hJgEE0"]YouTube- Fort Boyard[/nomedia] Watch 2 minutes and tell me the French don't work for you.

Now back to our regularly schedule crash thread.

[Benny Profane]

Benny, in Europe and Africa, France sells a boat load of products.

Oh sure. A few. But, explain to me the quality of life. The nationally mandated five week vacation. For everyone. Every single fucking working slob. No out of pocket health care for life. The early retirement. The job for life security. The incredibly sexy women prancing off to work late in the morning, high heels, hot dress, hair and nails just so ....... oh, waitaminute, got distracted. Anyway, compare that to the real hubs of capitalism over the last twenty years, like NYC, London, Hong Kong, and Shanghai, where people actually hustle for the profit. Why do they deserve that life?

[Benny Profane]

Wait - don't you do photo work? No french connection?

Sure, but all the ambitious Frogs move to NYC to make a good living.

[liv2ski]

So with tomorrows Non Farm Payrolls number predicted to be a big one:

This Friday the NFP report from the BLS could easily surpass 700,000 people, driven primarily by temporary census hirings and by Birth/Death adjustments. The Census Bureau reported that between the weeks of May 9 and May 15, there were 573,779 employed census workers. In the prior month, for the week ended April 17, there were 156,335 census workers employed, or a differential of 417,444 newly hired census workers between April and May. Keep in mind that in the May NFP report, the benefit from census workers was at 66,000, or 90,335 less than the Census reported number. As a result, due to the BLS' voodoo math and double counting, its is distinctly possible that the Census alone will add up to 507,779 workers (organic hirings of 417k and the plug for the prior period of 90k). Also, recall that the Birth-Death adjustment in April "added" another 188,000 workers. Retaining the same level of statistical adjustment, and the May NFP number will be at 700,000 before even one real full-time person has been added to the economy in the month of May!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/loo...payroll-number

And then on the flip side:

The Chicago PMI employment index dropped like a rock on 5/28/2010 from 57.2 to 49.2. This is a leading indicator of employment which now shows contraction. Only the fools and shills will get excited about Friday's "strong" report.

May be a good time to buy that 3X long (UPRO) going into tomorrow, for the big uptick and then sell before the afternoon "O shit, the books were cooked" sell off.
What do you doods think?

[4matic]

May be a good time to buy that 3X long (UPRO) going into tomorrow, for the big uptick and then sell before the afternoon "O shit, the books were cooked" sell off.
What do you doods think?

I've been adding long risk for a few weeks. I will not add this week. Way too many cross-currents and mixed signals:

Negatives:

1. SP failing at 200 day MA
2. Euro failing to hold gains.
3. Oil leak getting worse
4. North Korea heating up again.
5. Need to consolidate gain today and not have a selloff late.

Positives
1. Weak Euro. DAXI over 6000. This is good and bad therefore listed on both sides
2. Nikkei up 3.2% last night.
3. Interest rates low
4. Dollar steady.
5. A/D line turing positive.
6. A chance that we close over the 200 day..
7. Gas prices down.
8. High hedge fund cash.

etc. etc..

[Brock Landers]

I wouldnt worry about North Korea. Its not exactly a secret they hate S Korea. Anything heats up China shuts down their oil supply with two middle fingers extended.

These late selloffs though are a fucking killer. That NFP is probably mostly baked in anyway, with much of it census work I dont think its a huge deal unfortunately

[liv2ski]

Nice take 4matic. You echo much of what I have read, but more. I appreciate that.

[liv2ski]

"So much for that 700,000 expectation. At 431k, less 411k census, and 31k from temporary help services, it sure doesn't look good even without the 215k birth-death adjustment which only conspiracy theorists look at according to Mr. Liesman. 431k minus 411k minus 31k minus 215k = -226k. Nuf said. In other news, those unemployed longer than 27 weeks hits a new record at 46%. Nothing conspiratorial about that number".
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/non...djustment-215k

Fucking Ouch. Glad I missed this trade.
ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO)
127.37down -$14.23 -10.05%

[Toadman]

I think we may start to see the slow steady grind down in the markets. Can't see GDP being anything other than flat for 3rd and 4th qtrs. Sure, 2009 was a very bad year, so the yr over yr numbers will look better but nothing to hang your hat on. Euro is going down to parity with USD, which will be great for my Ski trip to Europe in 2011 . All those austerity programs will lead to recession in EU zone. Trickle down will hit the U.S.

And just reading the Real Estate Crash thread leads me to believe the HELOC problem in CA, and probably places like AZ, FL and maybe a few other hot bed RE markets will bring any economic expansion to a halt.

But right now the company I work for is as busy as we have ever been in the last 10 years.

[Benny Profane]

There ain't no money no more.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2073...equences-of-m3

[up an down]

There ain't no money no more.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2073...equences-of-m3

goldman will give the treasury a loan

[Downbound Train]

I moved 50% of my 401k to money market 2 days ago. So far I'm a genius. Toadman is right. Double dip on the way. 2nd dip worse than the first?
IF one thinks the market will hit 7000 before it sees 11,000, what would you do with the 401k. Keep it in cash? Gold? Ultra short funds?

[Benny Profane]

Roubini is dancing around tonight, singing, "how do you like me now, mofos"?

[Brock Landers]

Roubini is dancing around tonight, singing, "how do you like me now, mofos"?

roubini doesnt like short term market calls though right? he's just a macroeconomist and doesnt play the market? or he only makes calls when the market goes down.

Downbound- if you think the market is going to go to 7000, see what you can get into in terms of international bonds. Sovereigns. And cash. I dont know if you have the option of shorting in your 401k...I only have mutual fund options.

Templeton Global Bond is fantastic. PIMCO TR of course but they are a little more benchmark aware which isnt exactly great. US Dollars would be a solid and safe play though, if the market goes to 7000. If it does go to 7000 though, once it gets down there, load up on risk/EM, and hit the wave back up.

[Benny Profane]

I'll repeat for the last time. Roubini does not make market calls. He called the financial crisis, and he has called this continuing deflation. Get used to it. It is far from over. Spain is next, Japan is all played out, and even kindly old Buffett is predicting a sovereign debt crisis in America by warning about a muni and state debt crash soon.
When France descends into a morass of daily national strikes in a few years, that will be the end of the Euro. Then it's our turn.

That said, for your 401k, I'd do US treasury funds. That's the safety call for a year or maybe two.

[Missing Sock]

Templeton Global Bond is fantastic.

Seconded.

Most people are paying 2/20 for what these guys provide.

[Stu Gotz]

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...jugular/57696/

[up an down]

i hope somebody here is short...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eur...ckage-jeopardy

[Toadman]

^^^^^^^

Those folks back in Feb. who shorted the Euro are looking pretty good right now.

Europe saying enough to record deficits, and in essence potentially putting the end to the avalanche of endless bailouts and the Bernanke Uber-Put. At least such is the case until tomorrow when Europe's bureaucrats wake up and see a EURUSD at a level that rounds down to 1.10. The reason: Der Spiegel reports that Germany's high court is considering blocking Germany's participation in the European rescue package, a development which if it were to come to pass, would send the euro plunging to parity not with the dollar but with zero.

If Deutschland does block participation, then world markets will take a 10% hit. It'll be Lehman Bros. and then some all over again. Rebalanced my 401 (k) last week. Sadly my plan doesn't have a lot of options for a market decline. (T Rowe Price). Pretty much a few bond funds, one being federal gov't T bills. The other is a Money Market fund, which is basically earning Fed Window rates. But better that than losing 20%-30% of my balance.

[up an down]

Fraud when it goes up and legit when it goes down. That argument is just silly.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gfi...t-ups#comments

[liv2ski]

^^^^ I wish everyone understood what is going on and demanded jail time for the offenders, as this game is definitely rigged.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gfi...t-ups#comments