Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

Damn - 300 pips move in euro in less than 2 hours. Don't see that too often. Now that's a dead cat bounce

Very troubling that equity did not bounce off that. Scary..

[up an down]

Very troubling that equity did not bounce off that. Scary..

the plunge protection team and the know nothing talking heads on cnbc will be busy tomorrow

[4matic]

the plunge protection team and the know nothing talking heads on cnbc will be busy tomorrow

So what's your strategy?

[up an down]

you can afford tin?

[4matic]

you can afford tin?

Heh. Yeah. Beats gold. I just don't believe in the PPT. Program trading for sure but the fed isn't buying stock.

[up an down]

So what's your strategy?

just been long some vanguard funds.. got flat late feb... all $ in money market at the moment.. expecting a further drop., but too cautious/poor to be short, i think swings will be quite large.. more days like the 1,000 point drop and recovery day to come... i've always been a chart reader/trend follower/timer/moldy straw hat type trader.. i make $ ,but i'm sure i'm not in your league

[up an down]

[QUOTE=4matic;2871139] I just don't believe in the PPT. QUOTE] i used to be a skeptic as well , but the mold pattern in my hat tells me i was/might/posssibly/maybe was wrong

[4matic]

just been long some vanguard funds.. got flat late feb... all $ in money market at the moment.. expecting a further drop., but too cautious/poor to be short, i think swings will be quite large.. more days like the 1,000 point drop and recovery day to come... i've always been a chart reader/trend follower/timer/moldy straw hat type trader.. i make $ ,but i'm sure i'm not in your league

Trust me. I don't trade except when there are periods like this. I just love this crap and follow it 24 hours a day and have for 25 years. I work on the data side of the business and many years ago hosted a daily infomercial on the old FNN where I pitched risky investments.

Nikkei opens down 2% at 9823. I like the Nikkei down here..

[up an down]

Nikkei opens down 2% at 9823. I like the Nikkei down here..

sayonara

[liv2ski]

Well, if the market opens way off Friday, you can thank me and all the people that redeemed exchanged their mutual funds tonight out of stock and into money markets. Watch it bounce to the + side after 3 down days Doesn't matter though, I have hated this market for 6 months and it is time for me to be all out and just do more SDS buys here and there if it looks like it is going dooooowwwnnnn.

[Benny Profane]

Why not treasury funds? The CNBC barkers were all saying that was doomsville if and when interest rates rise, but, that ain't happening for a while. The Deflationists just made a statement. USA! USA!

[Benny Profane]

sayonara

http://www.forecast-chart.com/histor...ikkei-225.html


Can you say cally tlade? That's been about it for the last decade. They're next, by the way, or maybe third or fourth in line, and that will make the Greece thing look like child's play. But, you won't see those horribly polite people rioting in the streets. They take their lumps quietly and gracefully.

[liv2ski]

^^^ What was interesting about that chart for me Benny, is how little that index has come back, percentage wise, compared to the Dow/S&P indexes. Obviously the Fed has been pumping up our market, while the Japanese are like "BFD, we have been dealing with this for 10 years, next".
The thing that is good news for Japan, is even though they have a huge deficit to GDP, it is all enternally financed. No IMF or foriegn creditors eventually crushing them like the good ol USA, if we don't get spending under control.

[SKIORFORGETIT]

hold onto your nuts/pussy, we are going for a free fall again

fuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkk

[Brock Landers]

The thing that is good news for Japan, is even though they have a huge deficit to GDP, it is all enternally financed. No IMF or foriegn creditors eventually crushing them like the good ol USA, if we don't get spending under control.

To a degree, thats exactly what is hurting them. They have so much in savings- their investors/retirees/pensions/whatever, that they have no trouble buying their gov'ts debt. This keeps rates low, and noone outside the country wants to invest in Japan when their rates are so low. To encourage foreign investment and pump up their economy, they need those rates to bump up. Its tough for such a developed economy to do it from within.

[liv2ski]

To a degree, thats exactly what is hurting them. They have so much in savings- their investors/retirees/pensions/whatever, that they have no trouble buying their gov'ts debt. This keeps rates low, and noone outside the country wants to invest in Japan when their rates are so low. To encourage foreign investment and pump up their economy, they need those rates to bump up. Its tough for such a developed economy to do it from within.

Pffftt, I rather have Japan's savings problem than the USA's spending/no savings issues. Historically, the way you get fucked, is with high deficits and no savings. Then you are at the mercy of said "Foreign Investors" that demand higher rates and fiscal austerity. Just ask Greece.

[Brock Landers]

Pffftt, I rather have Japan's savings problem than the USA's spending/no savings issues. Historically, the way you get fucked, is with high deficits and no savings. Then you are at the mercy of said "Foreign Investors" that demand higher rates and fiscal austerity. Just ask Greece.

Considering its tied ionto their 20 year tailspin, their savings awesomeness has helped...how? I guess helped them not totally default but at the same time keeping them in a deflationary spiral.

Being at the mercy of foreign investors is only a problem if your country presents zero opportunities for investment. Which means nothing worthy to invest in, or things that may be ok, but that pay nothing (Japanese debt). Having growth opportunities drives this, along with rates. Which is why the US has had a trade defecit for many many years. Foreign investment in things that grow our economy. Not a bad thing at all. As long as foreign investment goes toward actual investment and not consumption youre fine. Even if your net fiscal account is positive (more foreign investment in your country than what your country invests in others).

Greece is different because it cant alter its currency due to it being part of the EU. Their government has no money because...people dont pay taxes. Zero. Its like commonplace to either cheat on taxes or just dont pay. The government spends just as much if not more than others, and they dont collect. Its like Greece is trying to fuck itself over.

[liv2ski]

"This Is An Uber Bear Early Warning Alert...Major Risk Asset Sell Off Will See S&P Into 800s"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob...-800s#comments

"Dear All - its seems to me that:

A - Risk markets can stabilise/rally a tad this week, perhaps a little into the week after, but overall there is a decent chance of a VERY SERIOUS risk asset sell-off late May/early June into late June/early Jul....I am talking ANOTHER 10%/10%+ off S&P from here....

OR

B - After more weakness into late May/early Jun, we can then see some stability over JUNE, before a MAJOR 10%/15% PUKE begins in/into Jul

Sorry I can't be more precise, but net net it seems clear to me that the key risk here is of major risk asset sell off, with (eventually) S&P into the 800s, iTraxx Crossover up at 750/750+, a 5/10 big figure EURO Puke vs the USD, a broad USD rally, and 10yr USTs down at mid/low 2% levels. Whether we see a small bounce next week before the big selloff, or whether we see another week of weakness, followed by a month of 'strength' and then the big puke is not I think particularly crucial - the overall trend is the key. And in this respect, whilst following either of the above routes would then lead to a brief multi-month period of consolidation, the overall trend for the rest of 2010 will be weaker with respect to growth & risk assets/markets, and higher with respect to volatility. Key levels are (S&P cash) 1180 to the upside (and then 1220) and, to the downside, the 1020/1040 area. If we close below 1020 S&P, it would be very negative, implying that a mid-to-high 800s S&P is right around the corner..."

I pretty much agree with this guys observations, but only time will tell.

[Benny Profane]

Pffftt, I rather have Japan's savings problem than the USA's spending/no savings issues. Historically, the way you get fucked, is with high deficits and no savings. Then you are at the mercy of said "Foreign Investors" that demand higher rates and fiscal austerity. Just ask Greece.

Japan's problem, more than anything mentioned, is demographics. They have no young people of their own growing up to support the massive boomer bulge (yes, they have one, too, and it's much bigger, in a relative way), and, since they are so "homogenous" or, racist, they have no other citizens in the pipeline like we do to take up the slack. I heard today, that, by 2020, their GDP will drop by 20% simply because it will be a nation of sacrificing for the common good retirees. They actually grudgingly accept the cutbacks in pensions, even private pensions, instead of rioting and burning banks. Now, that's teamwork. Thank God they don't have a military with a nuke arsenal.

[Brock Landers]

Japan's problem, more than anything mentioned, is demographics. They have no young people of their own growing up to support the massive boomer bulge (yes, they have one, too, and it's much bigger, in a relative way), and, since they are so "homogenous" or, racist, they have no other citizens in the pipeline like we do to take up the slack. I heard today, that, by 2020, their GDP will drop by 20% simply because it will be a nation of sacrificing for the common good retirees. They actually grudgingly accept the cutbacks in pensions, even private pensions, instead of rioting and burning banks. Now, that's teamwork. Thank God they don't have a military with a nuke arsenal.

Exactly, the demographics lead to a huge amount of savings being invested in their government's debt. This keeps rates low (many buyers means low "prices" to the government) and keeps foreign investment out of the country. So the government borrows and borrows from its citizens, funding anything but economic growth (no foreign investment).

If they could take some of this savings (problem) and put it toward some consumption, enticing businesses to grow, maybe theyd have something. Too much savings is deflationary, almost worse that the US's problem of too little savings and too much borrowing.

[4matic]

US markets are pretty quiet this morning all considered. I'm taking some heat but I'm not nervous...yet. That's probobly a bad sign. If we stay down today I'll buy some stock. Although the February (1044) low is the magic number right now and it has been broken. I'm looking at Deutsche Bank (DB) and the QQQQ for individual issues and just any broad based fund on further weakness. Good luck.

[liv2ski]

US markets are pretty quiet this morning all considered. I'm taking some heat but I'm not nervous...yet. That's probobly a bad sign. If we stay down today I'll buy some stock. Although the February (1044) low is the magic number right now and it has been broken. I'm looking at Deutsche Bank (DB) and the QQQQ for individual issues and just any broad based fund on further weakness. Good luck.

DOW down 360. It will be interesting to see if/when the FEDS Plunge Protection Team intervenes via GS. Looking for huge volume late in the day on the S&P 500 index.

Edit: and then 15 minutes later I see this post. Guess the PPT wasn't waiting today.

"The S&P just took out 2010 intraday lows set in February. The response was an immediate bounce and a jump in volume as the "counterintuitive" bid steps in to prevent a massive rout, even as the NYSE is still broken. Have fun trading this busted mess".

And then when I need a good laugh on down days: [nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAKsMnAM8vk&feature=related"]YouTube- Poof it's gone![/nomedia]

[4matic]

DOW down 360. It will be interesting to see if/when the FEDS Plunge Protection Team intervenes via GS. Looking for huge volume late in the day on the S&P 500 index.

Actually down 292 at the low of the day. About 100 points lower than the low last Thursday.

[liv2ski]

Actually down 292 at the low of the day. About 100 points lower than the low last Thursday.

Ya, it is odd that MSN had the down 360 on the website big as day when I posted that. Maybe they were a little ahead of themselves. Love how the PPT defended the S&P 1040 support another day. This game is rigged for sure.

More good news for Lees GS July trade: http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/pro...25&id=11541943

[4matic]

Ya, it is odd that MSN had the down 360 on the website big as day when I posted that. Maybe they were a little ahead of themselves. Love how the PPT defended the S&P 1040 support another day. This game is rigged for sure.

More good news for Lees GS July trade: http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/pro...25&id=11541943

Fraud when it goes up and legit when it goes down. That argument is just silly.