Is the stock market going to tank?

[mud]

Today marks the 1 year anniversary of the recent bottom in the Stock market.
Back on March 9th, 2009 the Dow was at 6,517, and has risen 62% since then.

[4matic]

Lots of consternation about "low volume". It's a concern but it reminds me of the two years after 87 crash. Volume was absymal and the market creeped up for those two years eventually making new highs. 1150 SP00 is a pivot point. A move through there would trigger short covering and trend follow buying. The combination of low vix number (under 18), FTSE making a new high, stable currency and interest, and small cap stocks outperforming are all bullish factors.

The 9% correction we just had was exactly the same as the last 9% correction in July with an 18 day duration; exactly the same..

Market climbs a wall of worry.

[4matic]

Lots of consternation about "low volume". It's a concern but it reminds me of the two years after 87 crash. Volume was absymal and the market creeped up for those two years eventually making new highs. 1150 SP00 is a pivot point. A move through there would trigger short covering and trend follow buying. The combination of low vix number (under 18), FTSE making a new high, stable currency and interest, and small cap stocks outperforming are all bullish factors.

The 9% correction we just had was exactly the same as the last 9% correction in July with an 18 day duration; exactly the same..

Market climbs a wall of worry.

/\ Damn I'm good..

Momentum and volume starting to kick in on the upside with low volatility numbers. Time to be a little more cautious. Sell in May and go Away might be good advice this year.. 1250-1300 still very possible. This is seasonally a strong period with IRA contributions and quarterly rebalancing. Plus, money managers are being forced to chase performance.

[liv2ski]

CT, quoted over here, as I loved this bit of info. As my screener doesn't do the 20/50 averages, can you let us know hear when it crosses?
Thanks dood, your da mang

BOGNONBR is non-borrowed reserves on deposit at the Fed. Basically, it's the banks' equivalent of the money buried in the backyard in a coffee can. If the banks dig up the coffee can, that means they need giant amounts of cash right F****** NOW and it's likely because their balance sheets are having huge holes blown in them. BOGNONBR is the Armageddon indicator.

The 20/50 is just your run of the mill technical indicator.

Here are your results following the various indicators since the peak Oct 08 to now (these are your overall results, not just for this year):
Hanging on through it all: -20%
20/50 cross: +10%
BOGNONBR: +20%

And the best indicator of all, the only time a sitting US president has mentioned the stock market, and the only guy that can print money and funnel it into the market:

March 09: "Obama: buy stocks now!"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19567.html

Obama indicator: +50%

It worked for me. Again, I love bankers/politicos committing massive fraud as long as I get some of it.

BTW, we're getting close to the 20/50 cross again, this time from the other side:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p22402434556

It will be time to get out again soon...

[char]

Confessions of a Wall Street Nihilist

[4matic]

Just before last Friday's decline I was as bullish as I'd been in many years..

Friday changed short term opinion to sell rallies and no new longs. I would prefer sharp downward volatility to 1120-1150 to add new longs and would consider anything below 1100 reasonable risk for the long term. US Dollar assets have attractive risk right now. Also, A good buying opportunity in Asia emerging markets in the next month.

German economy is very strong so a weaker Euro is like pouring gas on a fire for them. If Germany is forced to raise rates to control inflation it will crush the PIIGS.

Gold looks very good but the weakness in Silver is troubling.

[Purveyor of Slack]

Round 2 of liquidity turned to......................dust.

And this after trillions thrown at the credit markets by the central banks.


This is the foundation, this is the system....and it's all just an illusion.

[liv2ski]

Interesting take:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sell-may-and-go-away

"The trend in American equities remains up, but there has been massive churning and distribution in the month of April, and the old adage “sell in May and go away” may prove to be prescient in 2010, unless the dip-buyers come back out in full force. The 200DMA will be an important level to watch– if this is taken out this summer/fall, we expect a resumption of the bear market started in 2007 and the grander-scale bear started in 2000. We would like to reiterate our assertion that the most important indicator to watch, both economically and financially, remains the AUD/USD. A 200DMA breakdown in that important FX cross is extremely bearish for commodities prices going forward, and we expect that selling would also find its way into equity. However, for now, the trend remains up in equity space, and commodities are choppy, though not down trending".

[Johnny Deep]

P.S. I say yes. DJIA will be below 13,000 again sometime this summer.

...or above 11,000. Which ever occurs first.

[Johnny Deep]

This is the foundation, this is the system....and it's all just an illusion.

It's always an illusion. Things are worth what people agree that they are worth. The best we can hope for is fickle.

[Toadman]

Confessions of a Wall Street Nihilist

Holy hell, we are doomed! That Ames guy, if real, is one of what? 300,000 on WS that have this view point. Maybe what's going on in Greece is a prelude to America.

[Moeghoul]

FIRE!!!!!!!!!!

[4matic]

Down 1000!

[coreshot-tourettes]

That was fucking WILD. Dow crashed more than 1000 points and the bounced back. Whoa...

[grapedrink]

what the fuck is going on? vti was down 29% for a few seconds there. what happens if you buy at a retarded price because of a system glitch?

[Moeghoul]

CNBC is fucking hilarious today!

[woodstocksez]

OK, smart guys. What the fuck is going on?

[coreshot-tourettes]

OK, smart guys. What the fuck is going on?

Bankers to Germany: "Bail out the eurozone or we stop the market dead. Now witness the power of this fully armed and operational battle station..."

[Moeghoul]

Panic and prolly some system failure on the exchanges overwhelmed by orders.

[Hong Jong Fuey]

OK, smart guys. What the fuck is going on?

PG dropped 10+ points in less then a minute. Thats billions in market cap gone, in 60 seconds. Stock quickly recovered literally minutes later. Kramer was talking about how the floor specialists machine must have been fucked. Whoever bought made a killing.

[Tippster]

Ghost in the machine, or cyber-attack?

[grapedrink]

everything appears to be back to normal now, im sure someone made a killing

[Hong Jong Fuey]

Ghost in the machine, or cyber-attack?

Spoke to a couple sales guys and traders via im and no one knows what the hell is happening. There is rioting in Greece, 11000 mental barriers, etc but 900 points in less than a few minutes is insane.

[woodstocksez]

Bankers to Germany: "Bail out the eurozone or we stop the market dead. Now witness the power of this fully armed and operational battle station..."

This made me laugh, even though I'm crying inside.

[Moeghoul]

Thing of beauty.......