Wasatch Conditions 09-10

[ski_adk]

And while I'm not a huge believer in analog weather forecasting, I think this bears some considertion. The analog precip patters for the 8-14 day period based on current and forecasted condtions:

I've been watching a few models and that's been the theme this whole year -- long term forecasts suggest there's big event just over the horizon, but in reality, that's where they stay. As days go by, the storms weaken or split, leaving the Wasatch with just a few inches instead of a few feet. Tust this past Friday, this next storm (coming Wed. - Thurs) looked like an epic blockbuster but now, the storm looks weaker and weaker with each model run. I remember this was the theme in '07 too.

[skiski]

I've been watching a few models and that's been the theme this whole year -- long term forecasts suggest there's big event just over the horizon, but in reality, that's where they stay. As days go by, the storms weaken or split, leaving the Wasatch with just a few inches instead of a few feet. Tust this past Friday, this next storm (coming Wed. - Thurs) looked like an epic blockbuster but now, the storm looks weaker and weaker with each model run. I remember this was the theme in '07 too.

I think it's different this time. The previously forecasted "next big storms" would shift from model run to model run, always staying 10 days out. Also, those did not look to be a pattern change, the high was still anchored to our region, it was just going to step aside for a blockbuster. This time it looks like the general ridge of high pressure will actually leave the building. Plus the models have generally shown this happening around Wed the 20th (plus or minus a day).

Maybe I'm just being an optimist though. I'm a trained ditch digger and a cobbler by profession, so I really don't know shit about weather.

[ectreeskier11]

someone want to enlighten me as to what the blue means?

[skiski]

someone want to enlighten me as to what the blue means?

blue=awesome

[ectreeskier11]

that's what i thought. bout fuckin time, the new big park at pc is fun and all but i can't handle that more than once every couple weeks. i just hope whatever may be coming abides to my ski schedule. carry on with normal wasatch conditions programming.

[Professor]

You can all thank me when winter starts in the next few weeks. Mother nature just wanted me to finish my basement before she opened the floodgates. She knew if it was snowing, it would NEVER get done........ I am just sorry I didnt have time to finish it sooner.

[Skidog]

that's what i thought. bout fuckin time, the new big park at pc is fun and all but i can't handle that more than once every couple weeks. i just hope whatever may be coming abides to my ski schedule. carry on with normal wasatch conditions programming.

Ummm if you're skiing in resort, Alta/Bird skied VERY well this weekend...Wasatch back needs more snow, so does the front, but really its skiing well at those2 resorts.

Anyway

[skifishbum]

No, but I'll leave you with this.

Whats that bro smilin bout? Hippie Hut V.2.0?
Fuckers call me for the next brap out of the pen.
I'm with Prof remodeling as much as I can till it dumps again.

[Headier]

Ummm if you're skiing in resort, Alta/Bird skied VERY well this weekend...Wasatch back needs more snow, so does the front, but really its skiing well at those2 resorts.

Anyway

totally agree. Spent the day Friday at Alta and found plenty or reasonably soft to ski all day. As a bonus, castle somethin or other just opened that day - some nice turns to be found in there.

I need to get out in the BC one these days, though. I'm fully equipped and experienced in anyone wants to go...

[Steepdeepnlong]

You can all thank me when winter starts in the next few weeks. Mother nature just wanted me to finish my basement before she opened the floodgates. She knew if it was snowing, it would NEVER get done........ I am just sorry I didnt have time to finish it sooner.

Shoulda done that shit in the summer.

[lionelhutz]

SkiADK:
I know that the models have showed several storms in the d7-10 range that never materialized. Nothing new there. What's important to note is that this is a pattern change involving not merely 1 storm. The PNA will move negative int his time frame as the NAO moves positive. This indicates a change in the blocking pattern over the CONUS which would support a western trough. I'm not trying pin the change in conditions on 1 storm but rather on the overall pattern change.

[ski_adk]

SkiADK:
I know that the models have showed several storms in the d7-10 range that never materialized. Nothing new there. What's important to note is that this is a pattern change involving not merely 1 storm. The PNA will move negative int his time frame as the NAO moves positive. This indicates a change in the blocking pattern over the CONUS which would support a western trough. I'm not trying pin the change in conditions on 1 storm but rather on the overall pattern change.

Gotcha and I think I see what you mean in the GFS. If that holds true, next week we might finally get a classic Wasatch storm cycle.

[lionelhutz]

Yea- I think you get the point. I'm not saying A big storm is coming. Rather my point is that over the last two weeks of jan. the prevailing weather pattern over the CONUS will change. While I don't see any 40+ inch monsters in the wasatch's future, the dry weather should end and a more active pattern should emerge.

[jtran10]

LH = God

Also, White Pine skied very well yesterday. Consolidated snow, no crusts to be found on north aspects, only a slight suncrust on west facing stuff up high. I was very surprised how well it skied to be honest.

[LittleYellowFriend]

To the guys who Bear Grylls'ed it up in Twin Peaks Wilderness in Mill B South on Fri night: THIS SUCKS.


I appreciate simple shelters and snow camping, but this is a sorry job. Felling trees, especially live ones to build a shelter that's too tall to ever hold body heat and then defoliating other trees to keep your ass off the snow is sad. Temps went went down to what? 20 degrees on Fri night? Was that really necessary? Dont worry, I used my sandwich bag to carry out your cigarette butts and I'll use that shitload of p-cord you tied those trunks together with for something useful. "If you dont know a knot, tie a lot..."

Wow... Mr. environmental sensitive. You make it sound like these people clear cut the forest and built condos. They are fucking deadfall and branches dude. Get a life.

[lionelhutz]

jtran:
send me a pm with you # and email. I'll be out in LCC from 1/22 to 1/28 and I'll give you a shout. Maybe we can meet up and get some beers.

[The Gnarwhale]

Wow... Mr. environmental sensitive.

Just call me Woodsy

[MickeysEars]

Is it just me or do the latest models seem to be going the same way again? Tetons certainly don't look as good anymore

[sfotex]

Looking better then it has in the last 2-3 weeks:

[coreyb]

Wow... Mr. environmental sensitive. You make it sound like these people clear cut the forest and built condos. They are fucking deadfall and branches dude. Get a life.

hey lilyellafiend... not sure if you've spent any time in the woods before, but there's a lil saying and it goes something like "leave a lot of trace" or "leave trace bigtime" or maybe it's "leave no trace"... i can't remember, i'm sure you can look it up if you're not too busy starting a paper company

[Wandrin*]

Wow... Mr. environmental sensitive. You make it sound like these people clear cut the forest and built condos. They are fucking deadfall and branches dude. Get a life.

Wow... You are clueless.

[TeleThor]

Yesterday afternoon found good skiing on dry consolidated snow on N and NW aspects in BCC. Similar to jtran, noticed a bit of a suncrust when one got onto W aspects. Ridge tops were getting scoured. Nice afternoon. No instabilities to speak of.

[MickeysEars]

Looking better then it has in the last 2-3 weeks:

I'm of to JH on the 29th Jan for 2 weeks so fingers crossed, just they look right on the edge of it being good, normal or crap ! Utah looks a little better. Fingers crossed as it's costing me a fortune this trip with the family also coming !

[LittleYellowFriend]

hey lilyellafiend... not sure if you've spent any time in the woods before, but there's a lil saying and it goes something like "leave a lot of trace" or "leave trace bigtime" or maybe it's "leave no trace"... i can't remember, i'm sure you can look it up if you're not too busy starting a paper company

So now cub scouts can't make a snow fort to get their merit badge without envirofreaks coming down on them. You retards are getting your pants wadded about a bunch of sticks and snowballs on the ground. Gosh, I thought the polar cap melting and killing us all was a big deal.

[Trackhead]

Shut





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