Real Estate Crash thread

**grrrr** · 08-05-2009, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by meatdrink9

Just bought a new place today. 2 bed, 1 bath 1200 sq ft. for $34,000.

Holy crap. Where do you live, Detroit?

**mock vomit** · 08-14-2009, 02:30 PM

Just a quick comment on the view from my position...

-See number of seller price reductions on homes/condos for sale in areas I'm watching (as a potential buyer for next year) increasing.

-My main loan officer contact is telling me he's already feeling a slow down in pre-approvals/loan applications.

-Market Value Analysis updates for my existing listings showing decent number of closings in the last month compared to recent activity, but almost no pendings or actives with offers in the pipeline now.

So, who knows how broad this is out in the rest of the country... but this is what I think the above means??? I peg the rash of price drops as seller's realizing they've missed the main sales period so far this year, and dropping price fearful of having to hold property thru next spring. Loan officer also said every single pre-approval he's done in the last couple weeks were buyers who had to sell their current home first. So I wonder if many of those who were going to use the first time buyer credit have already pulled that trigger by now? And with things not selling and buyers not bridging... more things just not selling. MVA in a few specific sub parts of market show hard data backing up my "gut feelings" on this...

Any other real estate-ish connected Mags seeing/feeling the same thing? As a individual Dirt Pimp always unsure if it's just MY stuff/area doing this. If true could be the start of a ride back downward for this fall and winter market (more than just a typical seasonal drop)... would hate to deal with a double dip market. Ugh.

**Toadman** · 08-14-2009, 02:39 PM

Just bought a new place today. 2 bed, 1 bath 1200 sq ft. for $34,000

Originally Posted by grrrr

Holy crap. Where do you live, Detroit?

That's way overpriced for Detroit.

**4matic** · 08-14-2009, 02:50 PM

House next door to me sold for $350k on the first day listed. $30k over ask.

**grrrr** · 08-14-2009, 04:03 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

That's way overpriced for Detroit.

I was being a bit facetious...but in my neighborhood $34,000 buys you 1/10 of an acre that's too steep to build on, doesn't perc and has a swamp view.

And I'm not kidding.

**liv2ski** · 08-14-2009, 04:25 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

House next door to me sold for $350k on the first day listed. $30k over ask.

And like San Diego, $350k is likely the low side for a SFD in a decent area. The low priced stuff has been bought up. Now it is trying to sell the next tier up that is more challenging and in my neighborhood of million dollar homes, it is "Price Reduction" city. Homes will sell, but it takes forever and likely some significant lowering of price to get er done. I hear/read that the real estate market is firming up and just laugh. Prices never go straight up or down. The low end bounce we are seeing now, is likely the calm before the next shit storm down. With the way our guberment is drowning us in debt, I am very bearish on all US assets. Anyone remember what happened in Argentina from 1990-2002?

**Benny Profane** · 08-21-2009, 06:53 PM

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/...TgyMTExWj.html

"A survey conducted in June of 1,500 real-estate agents sponsored by the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance found that 36% of all sales involve "nondistressed" properties.

Of the nondistressed sales, only 31% were what the survey described as "unforced or optional." The rest were sales by homeowners in some kind of financial or personal crisis.

"Think about that for a minute," John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors wrote this week. "Two-thirds of home sales are either foreclosures or banks taking a loss on the mortgage." And only a third of the remaining one-third -- roughly 10% of overall sales -- comes from "something we could call a normal selling process.""

**P_McPoser** · 08-21-2009, 09:43 PM

Happy to be buying now that my shit finally sold

**iceman** · 08-21-2009, 09:44 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Of the nondistressed sales, only 31% were what the survey described as "unforced or optional." The rest were sales by homeowners in some kind of financial or personal crisis.

There two houses for sale on my street. The people died. They would fall in this category of "some kind of...crisis". So fucking what?

**mock vomit** · 08-22-2009, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by P_McPoser

Happy to be buying now that my shit finally sold

Congrats!!!

**montanaskier** · 08-22-2009, 04:07 PM

contract on my place now as well...2 years later. Taking a bath but will at least be done. The buyer is from Canada and is currently renting waiting for here credit score to show up which will reduce her points quite a bit. Fingers crossed.

**powder11** · 08-22-2009, 05:07 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

There two houses for sale on my street. The people died. They would fall in this category of "some kind of...crisis". So fucking what?

having sold RE for awhile, I can honestly say pretty much every seller is in some sort of "crisis" mode to sell.

**mock vomit** · 08-22-2009, 05:20 PM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

contract on my place now as well...2 years later. Taking a bath but will at least be done. The buyer is from Canada and is currently renting waiting for here credit score to show up which will reduce her points quite a bit. Fingers crossed.

Also Congrats!!!

**H0G** · 08-23-2009, 09:53 PM

Friend of mine has 10 or so listings in Denver from $150k - $850k. The lower priced homes had multiple showings. One in Aurora had 20 showings in two weeks. He said everything has dried up in the last few weeks as far a showings go.

**liv2ski** · 08-24-2009, 12:12 PM

Here is the graph I like to show people on the upcoming resets on Option and Alt A ARMs. 2010 and 2011 will be a shit show of those loans going under and pricing going down.
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/ph.../original.aspx

Read the article here: http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...new-stage.aspx

**P_McPoser** · 08-24-2009, 05:25 PM

Originally Posted by P_McPoser

Happy to be buying now that my shit finally sold

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd the Buyer got laid off today. So I get terminate my contract to buy as well! So much for the bottom!

**liv2ski** · 08-24-2009, 05:35 PM

Originally Posted by P_McPoser

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd the Buyer got laid off today. So I get terminate my contract to buy as well! So much for the bottom!

Shit, that sucks. But for the buyer, I am glad he lost the job before he closed escrow or he would have been the next short sale/foreclosure in your area.

**P_McPoser** · 08-24-2009, 05:40 PM

Yeah, although I don't see how someone could be so out of touch with their job security that they get laid off 4 days after putting an offer on a house...

**mock vomit** · 08-24-2009, 07:21 PM

Originally Posted by P_McPoser

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd the Buyer got laid off today. So I get terminate my contract to buy as well! So much for the bottom!

And now... FACK! +++Vibes+++

**skier666** · 08-24-2009, 08:37 PM

Anyone ever do a deal where the buyer in a condo building purchases the next door unit, to blow out a common wall to create one big unit? My next door neighbor put their place up for sale and they need to move quickly, so we may be able to get a great deal on the place. We love the building, but I'm already stressing about 1) the HOA, 2) Financing, 3) City of SF, 4) etc, 5) etc......

Just throwing it out there...

**mock vomit** · 08-24-2009, 09:10 PM

Originally Posted by skier666

Anyone ever do a deal where the buyer in a condo building purchases the next door unit, to blow out a common wall to create one big unit? My next door neighbor put their place up for sale and they need to move quickly, so we may be able to get a great deal on the place. We love the building, but I'm already stressing about 1) the HOA, 2) Financing, 3) City of SF, 4) etc, 5) etc......

Just throwing it out there...

My main concern would be if the building has a normal type/size range, and the new unit you would create would be larger than most every other unit in the building. Hard to sell a more expensive unit in a lesser expensive building from my past experience.

Also could kinda fall under the category of diminishing returns I suppose? A significant portion of the value of land or structures is in the intrinsic value of each buildable lot or divisible unit. Said another way, two @ 1 acre lots will almost always sell for more than one @ 2 acre lot. Think it might be true in the case of a condo like this too???

Also, all the condo fees will likely double.

On the permits/construction... never done it, but if I were the unit owners above and below I'd expect the city and condo assn to make you plate every change you make in gold so my unit isn't harmed.

**Stu Gotz** · 08-25-2009, 08:05 AM

Originally Posted by skier666

Anyone ever do a deal where the buyer in a condo building purchases the next door unit, to blow out a common wall to create one big unit? My next door neighbor put their place up for sale and they need to move quickly, so we may be able to get a great deal on the place. We love the building, but I'm already stressing about 1) the HOA, 2) Financing, 3) City of SF, 4) etc, 5) etc......

Just throwing it out there...

That's pretty much the norm in NYC, so I can't believe SF is any different. Best way to get a two bedroom is buy the apartment next door. As Tim says, there may be issues with selling, (big apartment, HOA fees will be high), but the only issue that I think you would face would be to keep wet over wet when you make your architectural changes.

**ass-to-mouth** · 08-25-2009, 08:12 AM

Just found out the house I grew up in is in foreclosure. Mom sold it in 2003 for $1.35 million. Buyer financed 100%. Re-financed in 2004 for an additional $225K. They had been trying to short sell since last summer. No takers. Family moved out last month, and the home is set to be auctioned off 9/14. This is in Marin County.

**Shredhead** · 08-25-2009, 08:37 AM

Originally Posted by skier666

Anyone ever do a deal where the buyer in a condo building purchases the next door unit, to blow out a common wall to create one big unit? My next door neighbor put their place up for sale and they need to move quickly, so we may be able to get a great deal on the place. We love the building, but I'm already stressing about 1) the HOA, 2) Financing, 3) City of SF, 4) etc, 5) etc......

Just throwing it out there...

We have two small 2br/2bath, ski in/out units on Aspen Mountain. People tell me we should do this all the time. But one guy did and his large unit isn't worth
what our two are? Plus for us, two is much more flexible.