Is the stock market going to tank?

**Benny Profane** · 07-16-2009, 06:33 PM

Originally Posted by woodstocksez

I don't think most "analysis" here or in the media even comes close to being meaningful.

Oh, it is for the liars and scoundrels on all levels that play the public like a seasoned poker player in a Reno casino. It's an insider's game, especially today. The only way for you to profit is to know what the results are ahead of time for a fee, or guess well. As far as the latter, the house always wins in the end.

**woodstocksez** · 07-16-2009, 06:50 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Oh, it is for the liars and scoundrels on all levels that play the public like a seasoned poker player in a Reno casino. It's an insider's game, especially today. The only way for you to profit is to know what the results are ahead of time for a fee, or guess well. As far as the latter, the house always wins in the end.

In the past, I haven't been inclined to be overly cynical or pessimistic about financial markets: people have always cheated, but I assumed the system mostly operated with an acceptable level of integrity. I don't think that any more. I expect I'm far from alone in my changed view.

**4matic** · 07-16-2009, 07:13 PM

Originally Posted by Moeghoul

Nice call on the technicals, 4matic.

Thanks. Really. Even a blind squirel finds a nut now and then! I rode it through the Google earnings hoping for a breakaway gap (never a wise idea). We'll see now.. My time frame is shorter now and we need to see breadth ratios get better even if the market moves sideways/down. A bullish surprise from GE or some help from the Nikkei would also be nice. The Dow components need to to confirm also. Expiration tomorrow..

**Cyber Cop** · 07-16-2009, 07:21 PM

Speak a de Engrish.

**ICEHOCEY77** · 07-16-2009, 08:50 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Oh, it is for the liars and scoundrels on all levels that play the public like a seasoned poker player in a Reno casino. It's an insider's game, especially today. The only way for you to profit is to know what the results are ahead of time for a fee, or guess well. As far as the latter, the house always wins in the end.

that's why the charts never lie.

**Brock Landers** · 07-17-2009, 07:54 AM

Originally Posted by woodstocksez

improvement in corporate results is a leading indicator of a stock market upturn

More specifically, investment grade bond spreads are the tangible evidence of this arbitrary "improvement" term

**4matic** · 07-17-2009, 09:00 AM

Questionable results from GOOG, GE, and BAC yet the market shows decent resiliance...it's early but impressive nonetheless.

**Moeghoul** · 07-20-2009, 05:53 AM

USDX broke support overnite. under 79. Gold's up another $16.

**liv2ski** · 07-20-2009, 09:05 AM

Guys, any good reads on technical analysis I can understand, that won't put me to sleep 10 minutes into reading it out there?
Thanks

**4matic** · 07-20-2009, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Guys, any good reads on technical analysis I can understand, that won't put me to sleep 10 minutes into reading it out there?
Thanks

You mean reference books? No, all dull as a butter knife..

My take is TS is art as much as science and you have to keep it simple. Experience is the best teacher.

The reference bible is John Murphy:

[ame="http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Financial-Markets-Comprehensive/dp/0735200661"]Amazon.com: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance): John J. Murphy: Books[/ame]

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...phy_s_ten_laws

My favorite market book of all time which has a lot of technical analysis references is The New Market Wizards. I've read it three times. Get the hardback:

[ame="http://www.amazon.com/New-Market-Wizards-Conversations-Americas/dp/0887306675"]Amazon.com: The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders: Jack D. Schwager: Books[/ame]

**powpig** · 07-20-2009, 06:51 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Guys, any good reads on technical analysis I can understand, that won't put me to sleep 10 minutes into reading it out there?
Thanks

Check out McHugh's Technical Indicator Index They give a free 30 day subscription, no cc up front required.
http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com

This past weekend's report is required reading.

**ICEHOCEY77** · 07-20-2009, 10:58 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Guys, any good reads on technical analysis I can understand, that won't put me to sleep 10 minutes into reading it out there?
Thanks

I'd start with reminiscence of a stock operator, see if this is something you really can get interested in....then if you want to learn the basics of TA (Support/Resistance) take a look at this thread and save every picture the main guy posts, then everyday go back through the collections of pictures until it clicks one day.

[ame="http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331"]james16 Chart Thread @ Forex Factory[/ame]

...

Tomorrow will be an interesting day, we should hit 8875 ( high of the recent bull rally) no problem, good thing in it's favor is breaking the 200 moving average today. I'd like to see us hit 9000 and show up a daily reversal bar. Bearish divergence is set up, but the momentum of this recent move up makes me weary. We'll see how it breaks...

**4matic** · 07-21-2009, 10:02 AM

Originally Posted by ICEHOCEY77

Tomorrow will be an interesting day, we should hit 8875 ( high of the recent bull rally) no problem, good thing in it's favor is breaking the 200 moving average today. I'd like to see us hit 9000 and show up a daily reversal bar. Bearish divergence is set up, but the momentum of this recent move up makes me weary. We'll see how it breaks...

Agree except with regards to the importance relative to the entire rally.

The Nikkei kicked in last night; closed right on its high. The political changes there may finally support a sustainable rally. Europe strong.

Apple earnings are the 800lb. gorilla today.

technically we are at a slight crossroad. We did take out the previous recovery high on the SP today by a few cents. A failure here is too easy for the bears but possible. A pullback to SP00 930 is normal and healthy.

IF Apple earnings (or something else) trigger a gap above todays high then we have a breakaway gap after an island gap. This would be one of the most reliable indicators of an extension rally. Also, a move up from here puts us in position to attempt a test of the breakdown at 1050-1100 SP00

Also, a move higher will attract sideline money and short covering.

The range is 870-950 SP00:

Breakaway Gap - Breakaway Gap Stock

The breakaway gap is a significant development and has strong implications in the direction of the gap for the stock. Breakaway gaps occur when prices jump outside of a recent trading range or consolidation area. This may happen when a stock opens well above any high made recently or well below any low made recently, as a result of sudden extreme optimism or pessimism. Breakaway gaps are not filled quickly, and leave a blank space on the stock chart. Breakaway gaps often occur as resolutions to common chart patterns, as traders identify a pattern and rush to be the first into the trade. Identifying breakaway gaps properly can lead to very reliable trading signals, particularly when they occur on high volume

http://www.thestockbandit.com/Breakaway-gap.htm

**gtdrew** · 07-23-2009, 08:09 AM

does not compute.

S&P solidly above 960 and the DOW with the potential to crack 9000 today. I am flat and confused.

**Tippster** · 07-23-2009, 08:22 AM

Consider it cracked.

**4matic** · 07-23-2009, 08:48 AM

Originally Posted by gtdrew

does not compute.
.

That's why it is going higher. No one believes it. Busy trade today. Busiest in a while.

FWIW: I sold 1/2 my longs yesterday and I slept well

Still 1/2 long looking for QQQQ $40, 1050 SP00

**liv2ski** · 08-17-2009, 02:36 PM

The Shanghai index fell 5.8% today, its seventh loss in the last nine sessions. It has fallen 17% since Aug. 4. That's a correction. A few more down days, and the index will be down 20%, the popular definition of a bear market.
The Bear Market is coming and that is the tip of the iceberg once this shit hits the fan: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...ming-fast.aspx
Good luck on Health care reform when Social Security is ready to go down for the count. What the fuck are the politicians thinking? We are so far in debt we are a year or two from junk bond status. No country will buy our debt in the near future, rates will be out of sight, economy in the tank. Fuck dudes, I think the USA is going down.

**4matic** · 08-20-2009, 11:42 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

The Shanghai index fell 5.8% today, its seventh loss in the last nine sessions. It has fallen 17% since Aug. 4. That's a correction. A few more down days, and the index will be down 20%, the popular definition of a bear market.
The Bear Market is coming and that is the tip of the iceberg once this shit hits the fan: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...ming-fast.aspx
Good luck on Health care reform when Social Security is ready to go down for the count. What the fuck are the politicians thinking? We are so far in debt we are a year or two from junk bond status. No country will buy our debt in the near future, rates will be out of sight, economy in the tank. Fuck dudes, I think the USA is going down.

From that article:

"As I've already noted, there is no money in the Social Security Trust Fund -- just IOUs from the government to itself."

If you consider US Treasury Bonds an "IOU"? Government has always had a printing press so to dumb down Treasury Bonds as an IUO is playing the fear card.

Fact is, SS might be on stronger footing than anyone expected but not for a good reason.. Older Americans will have to work longer because they don't have enough money to retire, therefore, tax receipts will remain above expectations from that demographic.

**LeeLau** · 08-20-2009, 12:03 PM

I like Candlestick Charting myself for TA. This is a decent primer [ame="http://www.amazon.ca/Japanese-Candle-Stick-Charting-Steve/dp/0735201811"]Japanese Candle Stick Charting: Amazon.ca: Steve Nison: Books[/ame]

but I use TA only for entry/exit points and strictly as a backup for fundamentals. As always YMMV

**SkiCougar** · 08-20-2009, 12:26 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

What the fuck are the politicians thinking? We are so far in debt we are a year or two from junk bond status. No country will buy our debt in the near future, rates will be out of sight, economy in the tank. Fuck dudes, I think the USA is going down.

Now, this is no where near true. Many european countries and japan carry debtloads that swamp the US as related to thier GDP.

YEs, more debt is going to slow any recovery to a crawl; but the US isnt about to fall off the cliff.

Although, if they dont change debt levels, tax rates, etc, etc, China will pass the US up in 10 to 20 years. we'll see. the US is going to have to decide if it wants to stay capitalist or go european socialist and let China go on by.

**4matic** · 08-20-2009, 12:34 PM

Originally Posted by SkiCougar

the US is going to have to decide if it wants to stay capitalist or go european socialist and let China go on by.

I predict China will have to meet rising social demands from its new founded middle class. My Chinese g/f maintains PRIVATE health insurance in China that she pays for. China will face the same pressures that US capitalism faced and still faces. It will take civil war or political revolution to address the demands of the proletariat in China in decades to come.

**iceman** · 08-20-2009, 12:41 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Fuck dudes, I think the USA is going down.

Panic much?

Try this one:

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!

**liv2ski** · 08-20-2009, 06:45 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

Panic much?

Try this one:

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!

Funny, I won't be dying as I have a Canukistan passport and nothing would make me happier than bugging out to BC

I just want to sell all my US based assets prior to the meltdown and getting my wife to sign off on selling the real estate is a tough sell. So fuck it, we will see what happens over the next 10 years, but I think the odds are stacked against the USA returning to it's hay days.
On a separate but more immediate note, the market has been treading water for awhile here and it is not uncommon for the stock market to tank in October, so it will be interesting to see what happens between now and years end.

**Toadman** · 08-21-2009, 09:00 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

I predict China will have to meet rising social demands from its new founded middle class. My Chinese g/f maintains PRIVATE health insurance in China that she pays for. China will face the same pressures that US capitalism faced and still faces. It will take civil war or political revolution to address the demands of the proletariat in China in decades to come.

I think it was Frontline that did a very indepth story about China after Tianamen square. How the Chinese people entered into an unwritten deal with the devil (Chinese gov't) - One party rule for economic capitalism. The downside is that there are a lot of people getting hosed by the capitalist. Poor working conditions, as in lots of people dying or committing suicide because the work conditions are so bad. If you aren't on the money side of things, you get 3 squares, a cot and a few dollars a day. (Sadly, our company used to mfg in Shenzen province, and that's pretty much the way things were at the plant. Eat, sleep, and work at the plant.) The avg spend for health care is just a few dollars a month per capita. They would rather have people dying, than try to deal with the over population. China is going to have some very serious socio-economic problems in a decade. You could very easily see another Tianamen incident that doesn't stop there but spreads.

**Benny Profane** · 08-21-2009, 09:44 AM

I saw that Frontline, and, what sticks with me is the thing at the end when they showed the iconic picture of that fellow standing in front of the tank with his shopping bags dangling to a few bright and privileged students from a university in Shanghai (I think), and they had no clue what they were looking at. Possibly the most famous piece of photojournalism in the last 25 years, and they had never seen it. I can't see how a country can take the reigns of 21st century world capitalism with that level of mind control going on, but, I may be wrong.