Is the stock market going to tank?

[liv2ski]

(As an aside, I don't understand what you were doing if you were waiting for a rally like this to get out, since it only added a few percent to your 25% return - not enough to absorb the risk of waiting for it, I wouldn't think.)

How do you know the market isn't undervalued apart from the consumer confidence numbers? Maybe the Wilshire 5000 should really be at 11,000 (or more) right now, given the current state of the economy and the best guess(es) as to the future, and what you term a sucker rally has the market still well short of where it should be. Have you done that analysis? I doubt it. (I have no idea if the Wilshire 5000 at 9300 is too high, too low, or just right.) There may be (teams of) analysts out there doing it, but I doubt that includes anyone posting in this thread.

I wasn't waiting for the rally to get me a few % points more, rather I thought it was a good time to bale on speculating in the market as a whole. Rather than trying to guess which way the market is going and placing my bet accordingly after these financial genius give me their through analysis, I figured it would be way more profitable to sell the sheep covered calls from here on out. Even doing that, one needs to be mindful of the overall market trend, as a pull back in values complicates the game plan.

[ICEHOCEY77]

WTF is going on today. Part of the market is screaming deflation trade (oil equities down, gold down, equities in general down, dollar up) but another part of the market is screaming inflation (debt land with treasuries gapping lower and HY moving higher).

Anyone care to interpret?

This June dow futures 4 hour chart isn't as big as I wanted it to be but work with me. The blue box is from May 4 until today. Top of the box coincides with the 8500 level, a very strong strength/resistance area. Bottom of the box is the 8200 level. You can see how price is trading within the range and anytime we get near or on these major areas price shoots back in the other direction. This is usually what markets do. We'll probably drop back to 8200 in the next day or two then bounce back toward the 8500 level.

[Stu Gotz]

Buffet vs. Einhorn

Pass the popcorn.

http://www.businessinsider.com/david...-moodys-2009-5

[4matic]

This June dow futures 4 hour chart isn't as big as I wanted it to be but work with me. The blue box is from May 4 until today. Top of the box coincides with the 8500 level, a very strong strength/resistance area. Bottom of the box is the 8200 level. You can see how price is trading within the range and anytime we get near or on these major areas price shoots back in the other direction. This is usually what markets do. We'll probably drop back to 8200 in the next day or two then bounce back toward the 8500 level.

]

Damn good analysis. Could have made money on that today..

[Brock Landers]

einhorn is right McGraw Hill should be worried too, S&P is next

[Benny Profane]

Buffet vs. Einhorn

Pass the popcorn.

http://www.businessinsider.com/david...-moodys-2009-5

Maybe he knows something we don't - that the government will get into the rating biz, and only the government, as they should.

[Brock Landers]

Govt doesnt even have to get in. After what happened with the ratings of CDOs, etc noone takes the ratings agencies seriously anymore. Firms can do their own analysis rather than trust the crap dished out by Moodys if need be, and if they dont need to find spread opportunities, they can use a specific spread level to gauge risk. Beats seeing "AAA" on an Alt-A bond.

[bean]

[ICEHOCEY77]

If only everyone would act that way to Dennis Neale we'd be better off for it.

[Benny Profane]

Neale is the kinda dude that thought it was really cool to be the water boy in high school, but still got beat up and wedgied a lot, and walked away with a smile at the end, thinking he was in with the big boys. I thought CNBC was scraping bottom a few months ago, but, lo and behold, they gave him a prime time slot. I've heard some incredibly stupid and ignorant things said on his show, but, I can't listen much after the first few weeks.

[4matic]

Big equity move up worldwide. DAX is up 4% and breaking above resistance. Nikkei has already broken out. US heading for death match at 950 SP00. It looks good for now with momentum picking up. I'm sticking with 1050-1100 as a target on this move. As long as bonds don't collapse we'll be ok.

[grapedrink]

well gm is up nearly 300% from its low this morning

[ass-to-mouth]

And oil keeps climbing, climbing, climbing. I love it.

[Moeghoul]

S/P 500 held above 870'ish EOMonth. 950 and higher is looking better. Bulls on parade!!!!!!

[Benny Profane]

well gm is up nearly 300% from its low this morning

Perfect argument for staying out of this market.

[Brock Landers]

Youre right stay out. Wouldnt want to miss out on anything

[Benny Profane]

Like the next correction.

[Hugh Conway]

Youre right stay out. Wouldnt want to miss out on anything

gotta love the frat finance mentality

[Brock Landers]

Yup, the frat finance mentality. Buy low and sell high...you need a tattoo and initiation to be able to do that. Alternative is to buy high and sell whenever, Im assuming thats what youre doing?

Be greedy when people are fearful, be fearful when people are greedy

[mcsquared]

-Remember the golden rule, he who has the gold makes the rules.
-Buy Coats in August and umbrellas in February.
-I can't afford to waste my time making money.

Wait this isn't the arrogant platitude thread?

[Stu Gotz]

I guess getting rich isn't even in the cards anymore.


Staying Rich in the New Normal - Bill Gross of PIMCO

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Feature...rmal+Gross.htm

[Benny Profane]

I guess getting rich isn't even in the cards anymore.


Staying Rich in the New Normal - Bill Gross of PIMCO

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Feature...rmal+Gross.htm

"I remember as a child my parents telling me, perhaps resentfully, that only a doctor, airline pilot, or a car dealer could afford to join a country club. My how things have changed."


I remember that time.

[4matic]

I'll send you a postcard from gold 1200/oz before you send me a postcard from 1100 S/P. Yesterday was a classic knockdown at the open, but gold made back most of that loss overnite. Lotsa big money has/is rolling in for the next move higher.

I'll be taking the lead in this race early next week..

[Moeghoul]

Might be, I gotta take a look at the econ calendar for next week.

[Moeghoul]

I'll be taking the lead in this race early next week..

Early ended yesterday.