Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

Up over 40% in my IRA YTD...and I just put everything in the fixed/stable acct today. Im not real confident in anything really, right now. What are the options in your employer's IRA plan?

Nice. Did you trade it or move from cash to equity at some point?

An up close today would follow the recent pattern of one day corrections and based on the consensus here there still is no belief in the rally so we may have more than a bit further to go. I show some support at SP00 880.

[Brock Landers]

Nice. Did you trade it or move from cash to equity at some point?

An up close today would follow the recent pattern of one day corrections and based on the consensus here there still is no belief in the rally so we may have more than a bit further to go. I show some support at SP00 880.

Kept it in the cash/stable value account since last September until early March, where half went into my company's stock. Moved the other half into the SP500 index tracker and into the emerging markets portfolio mid march.

I just feel like IM better off locking in what Ive made- I feel like the market correction on a large scale has really happened. The lows came very hard very fast last Oct/Nov and again early this year, I feel like March and April corrected that but theres too much uncertainty to stay so exposed. I get 2 transfers/reallocations per month so if things look a little better during the month I can hop back in.

It kind of goes against all the long term investing ideals- buy and hold/long term investing/put it in the mkt and dont think about it, but there are some real opportunities to save a lot of money or buy at real low prices, with such volatility, i think its a bit foolish to just leave your money in a shitty market. Or to leave it out of the game while you can invest at ridiculous lows in an irrational market.

[John Smoke]

Stock market JONG here with 0 $ invested but what do you experts think of this chart?
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif

[bean]

Up over 40% in my IRA YTD...and I just put everything in the fixed/stable acct today. Im not real confident in anything really, right now. What are the options in your employer's IRA plan?

This specific account is 100% self-directed.

[Moeghoul]

If we clear SP00 950 with any momentum the gap at 1100 is in play. 950 is significant but the moentum of this move is impressive. Eight out of that last nine weeks have been higher for SP00. NAS is up nine weeks straight. INDU is the week leg and it may lead the way higher from here with the temporary rotation out of tech. I'd probobly be a seller above 1050 SP00.

History? On the weekly chart you have an acceleration out of a reverse head and shoulders with a gap at 50% retracement of the whole move at 1100.

Good luck with your shorts..

http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart...artUi.minutes=

Mr. Market is getting out his ugly stick, precious metals are getting ready to break out even higher.

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shorts are working fine.

[Brock Landers]

This specific account is 100% self-directed.

For a 401k the whole point is long term investing- not day trading.

That said, I would just leave it in a fixed or stable value fund for right now. I pulled everything out yesterday, the numbers coming back are not looking good. No sense in leaving it out there just to get crushed. But dont get back in too late, getting in a little early is better than too late.

Market has been open 10 minutes and is already down almost 2% (SP500).

[Moeghoul]

http://vodpod.com/watch/1096052-satu...?pod=misstrade

Pretty funny Macgruber skit about daytrading.

[bean]

Actually it's a RIRA but agreed, I'm not looking to day trade with this. Any suggestions on anything specific for stable value that won't get chewed up by BS fees and inflation?

[4matic]

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shorts are working fine.

Nice work! What's your timeframe? I'd buy a test of 800 SP for long term.

[Moeghoul]

Nice work! What's your timeframe? I'd buy a test of 800 SP for long term.

Only thing I'm adding long is gold and silver shares. Added back more PAAS at 19 this AM. Keep an eye on the USDX, dollar looks like it's ready to fall thru
.82 on its way back to .72 and lower.

[Brock Landers]

Actually it's a RIRA but agreed, I'm not looking to day trade with this. Any suggestions on anything specific for stable value that won't get chewed up by BS fees and inflation?

No idea. I just use my employer's stable value fund paying fixed rate over the year (or for however long Im in). Not sure if all companies have this and youre using self-directed so youre on your own. I guess google it, shouldnt have a ton of fees for just a fixed account. Could also put it into short term govt bond fund.

Anything safe, short term. CD may be longer than youre looking/less flexibility.

[Moeghoul]

Nice work! What's your timeframe? I'd buy a test of 800 SP for long term.

We'll prolly retest the lows. My outlook is we chop sideways and lower into June, then we hit an inflection to retest lows.

That's my time frame. Rallies are for selling. I'm 90% precious metal related shares, not really interested in any other sectors except utilities and energy at this point. Gold's been capped at 930, I'm looking for a breakout shortly, if not today.

[Brock Landers]

decoupling will continue again i think, gold is going to shoot through the roof, oil i think is going to stay steady for now.

Bean, if you put it in something like inflation-protected bonds, I think that would set you up well for whenever this inflation kicks in. Gold fund for now would do well too. Check out the Van Eck hard assets fund. Not exactly safe, short term, liquid...but I think a quarter or half in that, half in stable value will work out

[SkiCougar]

Only thing I'm adding long is gold and silver shares. Added back more PAAS at 19 this AM. Keep an eye on the USDX, dollar looks like it's ready to fall thru
.82 on its way back to .72 and lower.

I wouldnt be buying silver if i were anybody. yes, silver has a chance for a breakout, but there is too much silver for it to be a real hedge against a bad economy like gold. i'd go with the gld and maybe platinum if you want to do that.

for the overall market, expect a restest of the bottom to be starting soon or already started. the rally that started in march is one of the longest on record, expect a pullback. too soon to tell if we go to lower lows, but we still have to go thru a commercial real estate grinder like were doing with residential.

i have a hunch that another rally will start when the stimulus money really starts flying off the shelves, but besides that; i'm not expecting higher highs until fall.

[Moeghoul]

I wouldnt be buying silver if i were anybody. yes, silver has a chance for a breakout, but there is too much silver for it to be a real hedge against a bad economy like gold. i'd go with the gld and maybe platinum if you want to do that.

for the overall market, expect a restest of the bottom to be starting soon or already started. the rally that started in march is one of the longest on record, expect a pullback. too soon to tell if we go to lower lows, but we still have to go thru a commercial real estate grinder like were doing with residential.

i have a hunch that another rally will start when the stimulus money really starts flying off the shelves, but besides that; i'm not expecting higher highs until fall.

Silver will get pulled higher with gold, the ratio will tighten as retailers start flocking to the "cheaper priced metal"

Here's some good bathroom literature to enjoy. Recent monthly US Treasury statement. Pretty ugly.

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0409.pdf

[mcsquared]

Moeghoul- Are you buying physical gold and silver or GLD and SLV or something else entirely? trying to wrap my head around using paper not backed by anything ($) to buy paper (shares of SLV, etc) that is supposedly backed by something but could be backed by nothing just like the $.

[Moeghoul]

I bought all my physical around 450/oz. Only trading paper now. Miners, GDX, GLD, some out of the money calls on a few miners. I like the miners for another round of consolidation in the industry with shares this cheap right now. Great day to catch a dip in them today. Lotsa critics about the GLD, SLV and similar ETF's whether or not they really have the goods or are loaded with gold/silver derivatives. Since there's no audit requirements for GLD, I guess we'll never know.

[SkiCougar]

Silver will get pulled higher with gold, the ratio will tighten as retailers start flocking to the "cheaper priced metal"

Here's some good bathroom literature to enjoy. Recent monthly US Treasury statement. Pretty ugly.

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0409.pdf

well, i guess we can agree to disagree, but in aug of 08, slv broke w/ gld and started following the mkt. its back with gld now, but i'm not convinced it'll rise at the same rate gld will ever again, theres too much silver out there.

and real gold is a little safer, but the gld is safe if your trying the hedge a down mkt. unless youre going to hold real gold for years, its really not worth buying. all those that bought gold in feb were probably wishing they could have sold it back in 5 minutes on etrade in march.

[Moeghoul]

well, i guess we can agree to disagree, but in aug of 08, slv broke w/ gld and started following the mkt. its back with gld now, but i'm not convinced it'll rise at the same rate gld will ever again, theres too much silver out there.

and real gold is a little safer, but the gld is safe if your trying the hedge a down mkt. unless youre going to hold real gold for years, its really not worth buying. all those that bought gold in feb were probably wishing they could have sold it back in 5 minutes on etrade in march.

Silver got a beating due to the unwinding of silver derivatives JPM inherited from BS as well as their own humongous silver short derivatives position. Take a look at the OCC quarterly reports for 2008.

[Benny Profane]

Retail sales down 4% today. If we're a 70% consumer economy, that's not good. Or, look at it this way. In the pre crash days, we were all spending 6% more than what we made in America. Now, we're "saving" at least 4%, probably going to ten. So, how can the economy "recover" quickly with that 10-15% drop in spending? All the credit card companies are shutting down lines left and right, and 20% of houses are underwater, with that line rising daily. All the exotic mortgages of the late bubble are resetting this summer, and 100% of them are underwater. Many big time. That's another wave of foreclosures.


This was an interesting read today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/bu...al/13ship.html



http://www.vesseltracker.com/en/Port...eport/Map.html

I believe China and Brazil will take off soon, but, when you read that, wow. A lot of shipping ain't happening. I think I believe Marc Faber and Rodgers when they tell me to throw my money at commodities, especially food, but there may be a rolling 20-30% gain in the equity markets for 2 or 3 years, like in the depression. That's easy money, especially when you can get out quick with a few clicks on your computer.

[bean]

Talked to a guy about renting an existing home to buy something else, and they're only counting rental income if you have 30% equity (almost no one these days) or have 2 years of rental history. Sales will slow further as the only people buying are first-time buyers, and it's essentially impossible for anyone to move up - can't sell, can't use rental income for buying something else, can't say "fuck it" to the old, far underwater house and still get a loan to buy a new place. Gonna be a looooonnng, slow recovery.

[H0G]

Sales will slow further as the only people buying are first-time buyers, and it's essentially impossible for anyone to move up - can't sell, can't use rental income for buying something else, can't say "fuck it" to the old, far underwater house and still get a loan to buy a new place. Gonna be a looooonnng, slow recovery.

Actually properties are selling here in Denver IF they are turn key for non first time home buyers and ft home buyers. People are moving up, but they put 20% or more into the house they are selling. So they are breaking even, but they are also getting a deal on their purchase.

The big money players are snatching up properties left and right. Things are moving here in Denver. Even new homes sales are moving. That's my late night pov from the trenches anyways.

[Hugh Conway]

I'll introduce the Baseball Talk bubble sign here

When economic talk is indistinguishable from Baseball babble, i.e entirely content free and only filling space, the bubble hasn't burst.

[Moeghoul]

Gold's been capped at 930, I'm looking for a breakout shortly, if not today.

933.......giggity........

[Moeghoul]

Covered all my shorts. Biggest gainer was FAS from 11.80, out at 8.80.