Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[Danno]

Chalk this up to limited experience with big upslopes, but how far west do these conditions generally extend? Does the hose turn off at the divide or gradually trend off past it? Berthoud vs Loveland? Trying to lay down a rough plan of attack for the weekend...

There is no "rule of thumb" for big upslopes, each one is different.

[Blurred]

Well, like most TGR threads, I'm even more confused than when I asked the question.....so this thing will favor Loveland over Vail perhaps?

[Rontele]

Well, like most TGR threads, I'm even more confused than when I asked the question.....so this thing will favor Loveland over Vail perhaps?

Definitely will favor Loveland over Vail.

[smitchell333]

Definitely will favor Loveland over Vail.

You may have guaranteed that it doesn't with that prediction.

I'm hoping for rain down in Denver Metro.

[pappag]

From CAIC:

The NAM shows the precipitation shutting down in the south around dawn on Thursday, with showers lingering in the Northern Mountains throughout the day. On the other hand, the GFS keeps some moisture above the Northern San Juan and the Central Mountains through the day Thursday. Both models indicate that wrap around energy / moisture moves into the Eastern Slope of the Divide after dark on Thursday, with a good potential for significant precipitation along the east slope of the Sawatch, Front Range, Sangre de Cristo, and adjacent plains. There is some potential for the easterly flow to bring moisture back to the Central Mountains during the day on Friday. The storm lingers along the New Mexico border through Saturday night, enough to keep the weather unsettled into Sunday.

[karpiel]

HA! Right when I have to go to the airport, yet again.

[uglymoney]

HA! Right when I have to go to the airport, yet again.

Same thing here. I can't predict the weather but if this thing does impact the adjacent plains I can say with a margin of error of +- 2% there is a 98% chance that Untied will be pre-cancelling my 8:08 pm Friday night landing.

:

[PowTrees]

Speaking of that famous march? 2003 upslope. My father and brothers plane turned around mid air, DIA closed, and zillions were stranded. Some friendly peeps riding the lift on a powder day at Vail were all stoked with the news that tommorrow Dillon Dam road would open from Frisco to Silverthorne allowing access to Keystone and A-Basin from the Western Slope only. I was pretty excited to know that and planned to escape work the next day I-70 was closed around Georgetown from a massive avy for a few days. I don't remember the snow at A-Basin being fluffy that day, but definitely deep. I remember watching the helicopter Bomb the Professor and Widowmaker across the street from A-Basin (names?) and that sticky deep snow just wouldn't slide.

I've never been at A-Basin or Breckenridge to wait in line for the lifts to open. I'd doubt it's anywhere near as exciting as the Vista Bahn I'd feel so strange, but would be cool, exciting, and different to be in Summit County/A-Basin for a Big Powder Day. Never was able to catch a powder day back in the day (when I lived in Fort Fun instead of near Vail)

I bet the "Beavers?" or whatever it's called leaving from a gate above Pali somewhere? sidecountry of A-Basin would ski well with some freshies... How's the snow at A-Basin right now?? (I saw that the East Wall and possibly chutes above have been open recently??)

[Blurred]

Anyone that skis a-basin on the reg knows they don't open JACK SHIT on a pow day.....and I'm not even being sarcastic. Skiing sucked there yesterday btw.

[nick > jesus]

I really doubt this will will rival the storm of '03.

I would still be pretty excited about 36 inches, however it would be no where close to the 96" that fell at my house from the '03 storm

[PowTrees]

I'm wondering if Monarch, Telluride, Silverton, or Crested Butte will get the most snow wednesday tonight through Thursday?? Might not be actually snowing, but the radar looks much better down there than here in Eagle Vail where it's partly cloudy with some wind.

All I want to know is do you hear the sound of clashing skis, boards, and poles when Pali opens? (like at the Vista Bahn on a powder day after lots of sunny weather) Are men suddenly transformed like raging werewolves into hormone riddled boys ready to fight?

[boulderbrian]

Damn this is exciting. So do you guys think breck or vail will be better?

[Blurred]

All I want to know is do you hear the sound of clashing skis, boards, and poles when Pali opens? (like at the Vista Bahn on a powder day after lots of sunny weather) Are men suddenly transformed like raging werewolves into hormone riddled boys ready to fight?

No. All of those douchebags moved to Utah and Tahoe.

Colorado people don't need to scramble to ski in-bounds. Those in the know usually arrive late and ski untracked sidecountry all day.

Leave the rat race mentality at work.

[Blurred]

Damn this is exciting. So do you guys think breck or vail will be better?

Stay home and jerk it to the Golden Girls.

[PowTrees]

Anybody that skis the Vista Bahn first chair on the "reg" would enjoy my story (and probably has some similar stories). I'm not advocating anything but waiting in line nice and mellow with a starbucks like a good Vail Yuppie. But I dare your sorry young hungover ass to beat me to the lift in the morning. You'll be counting sheep and I'll be getting face shots. That doesn't mean I won't be out in the sidecountry next. Getting a ton more vertical pow total that day.

[Blurred]

Anybody that skis the Vista Bahn first chair on the "reg" would enjoy my story (and probably has some similar stories). I'm not advocating anything but waiting in line nice and mellow with a starbucks like a good Vail Yuppie. But I dare your sorry young hungover ass to beat me to the lift in the morning. You'll be counting sheep and I'll be getting face shots. That doesn't mean I won't be out in the sidecountry next. Getting a ton more vertical pow total that day.

Another clueless first year idiot.

So you're the idiot trying to get first chair on the VB?

You can have it. Knowledge surpassed effort many moons ago.

[karpiel]

Damn this is exciting. So do you guys think breck or vail will be better?

I'm thinking the Sol Vista chutes will be the money.

[fish]

sorry ass losers, i skin up 2 elk creek and get 1st on skyline. CHEA!

[A2thaK]

I've got no clue when it comes to weather forecasting-but I do know that noaa and weather can be WAY off when it comes to weather in the microclimates of the mountains.

So that being said-front range or down south for WC and Silverton this weekend?

[montanaskier]

so i hear it is suppose to snow? I'm in Montana and Wyoming and it has snowed on me the entire time. I have appointments tomorrow but am gonna cancel and head my ass back to the high country before chaos ensues. Big EAST winds, deep moisture....this is gonna be big i think. CAW CAW CAW

edit to add that west of the divide looks not very deep.

[PowTron]

Come on MCL, heal FAST!!! I need one more big day, bum knee or not

[gratzo]

I think the front range is the play, or at least along and east of the divide, likely around I-70 and north for the deepest snow Friday and Saturday. Models have been fairly consistent in showing this. Areas west of the divide could get 6-12" (except more down in the San Juans) Wed night through Thursday midday, then it looks to dry out Thursday afternoon and evening. More "showery" snow might return to the western central and northern mountains Friday and Saturday in the storm's "reach-around", providing another 4-8".

Meanwhile, the front range will be clobbered. As some other posters noted, the entire atmosphere from the surface all the way up to 40,000 ft will be flowing east-to-west Thursday night through Saturday night for areas east of the divide. All of this moist air hitting the mountains means lots of snow for sure...1-3 feet looks pretty good with some places getting a bit more. The snow will be very heavy and wet, with 3-4 inches of liquid.

Take a look at the attached images from two different snowfal models. Take your pick...either way, looks like the best snow is along and east of the divide. However, unlike previous storms, I think areas along the divide (Abasin, Winter Park) will do pretty well since the entire atmosphere is being lifted and thrown at them!

This storm is VERY slow moving, which is also why there will be so much snow (and rain on the eastern plains).

EDIT: The snowfall images only go through noon on Saturday, and there could be another 6-12 hours of snowfall for areas east of the divide after that.

EDIT2: Friday especially will be windy from the east along the divide.

JOEL
www.coloradopowderforecast.com

[pappag]

Hmmmmm ... according to the graphical data here, RMNP looks to be hit the hardest ... like 24" total hard.

[FiveLarge]

like 24" total hard.

that's what she said

[montanaskier]

east of the divide is the play without question. Echo Mtn is gonna be dope yo.