2008-2009 Colorado Snowpack Observations

[pechelman]

id be pretty certain its tracked out by now
if not by the patrol guy I told then some other skier that knows the area and how to get to where I was...not that its a secret or anything, but it does take a few trips back there to understand the terrain. its a little confusing.

with regard to the caic
all I can say is that they have limited resources
this is a very busy time as you can imagine and id like to think theyre doing the best that they can.

[MakersTeleMark]

yea.
i know.
its a killer graphic

Dig those turns before you set off the avi.

MiCol:

I too was surprised the snowmachine burial didn't get more attention, as it was way more than a close call and could have served as a good media heads up for that community, but I also know of plenty of other slides that don't get reported. You can't rely only on CAIC for your safety assessment. They are, to me, just the start of my analysis, and actually, I use them more for news and weather than anything else. You are a Friend of the CAIC, aren't you?

[Micol]

Dig those turns before you set off the avi.

MiCol:

I too was surprised the snowmachine burial didn't get more attention, as it was way more than a close call and could have served as a good media heads up for that community, but I also know of plenty of other slides that don't get reported. You can't rely only on CAIC for your safety assessment. They are, to me, just the start of my analysis, and actually, I use them more for news and weather than anything else. You are a Friend of the CAIC, aren't you?

agreed

i believe they provide a valuable service

[~mikey b]

hey y'all - listen up

I just wanted to give you a head's up about what my boys saw at Vail Pass today - I was off, and at the doc with a sick kid, but I got a call late in the day...

yesterday I was out at with some folks from DOW who were listening and looking for kitties

At Ptarmigan Pass visibility was very shitty - very few folks out sledding and skiing. I got a report that there was a slide into the creek on the Queen Bee/BBQ hybrid route at the very bottom that could've hung someone up in the terrain trap, but it seems to have just filled in the creek nicely for us.

I was also out Lime Creek Road beyond Bowman's Cutoff. There were several natural slides that had buried the road in the first steep bit beyond Bowman's, so my group turned around Several old ski, snowboard and snowmobile tracks in the area. Many more paths beyond where we turned around on Lime Creek Road.

Got a third-hand report today of a snowboarder triggered slide on North Ptarmigan. Anyone want to fess up? Sounds like it went big - top to bottom. No burials or injuries reported. Shrine Bowl slid as well - likely natural.

Of note are some slides that buried the Turkey Creek Road below Shrine Pass on the way to Red Cliff (in the area of the old log cabin). Nobody I have talked to has ever seen slides in this area.

I am one who will always adamantly say that there are always safe places to play in the snow, even during times of HIGH avalanche danger. Well, we "only" have CONSIDERABLE danger right now, and the snowpack is as funky, complicated and scary as I have ever experienced. I am going to be very selective and very careful about where I ski and snowmobilewhile the current conditions are present.

If you haven't lately, take a look at the CAIC forecast.

[~mikey b]

CAIC has raised the forecast from CONSIDERABLE to HIGH in the last couple of hours.

[lemon boy]

thanks for the info/update.

that was a different rating than when I just checked too

[MakersTeleMark]

Predictable. Winds picked up significantly this morning/now. Be safe folks, don't ski stupid shit.

[MakersTeleMark]

I was also out Lime Creek Road beyond Bowman's Cutoff. There were several natural slides that had buried the road in the first steep bit beyond Bowman's, so my group turned around Several old ski, snowboard and snowmobile tracks in the area. Many more paths beyond where we turned around on Lime Creek Road.

Got a third-hand report today of a snowboarder triggered slide on North Ptarmigan. Anyone want to fess up? Sounds like it went big - top to bottom. No burials or injuries reported. Shrine Bowl slid as well - likely natural.

Of note are some slides that buried the Turkey Creek Road below Shrine Pass on the way to Red Cliff (in the area of the old log cabin). Nobody I have talked to has ever seen slides in this area.

I am one who will always adamantly say that there are always safe places to play in the snow, even during times of HIGH avalanche danger. Well, we "only" have CONSIDERABLE danger right now, and the snowpack is as funky, complicated and scary as I have ever experienced. I am going to be very selective and very careful about where I ski and snowmobilewhile the current conditions are present.

If you haven't lately, take a look at the CAIC forecast.

I've kicked off some stuff onto LC Rd. in the past, and there are two very obvious slide paths that come down into the ruins right uphill from the cliff bands. Good anchored trees before that though, although there is a major terrain trap gully you want to avoid. Line choice is pretty critical there, and not too many people venture out there enough to know where they are and where they are headed.

Thanks for the report. That Ptarmigan slide sounds scary. Same path that ran earlier this week?

[~mikey b]

yep - same path, and it went pretty big I guess

lot's of complicated terrain, and things seem to be fracturing mid-slope in many areas , so once you are committed...

[Rontele]

thanks for the update, mike. things are going from bad to worse.

[~mikey b]

now if I can only get the fack out of the office.....

[FrankZappa]

A few shots from Helitraxs work on Tuesday. Ophir area.

[MakersTeleMark]

so once you are committed...

Point em.

[~mikey b]

ski fast
take chances

[MakersTeleMark]

Huck yer bacon!

[MakersTeleMark]

Didn't know about this one, #3?

Associated Press
Vail, CO Colrado
January 11, 2008

CommentComments Print Friendly Print Email Email

CREEDE, Colorado — Authorities in Alamosa County said a man reported his sister was missing after they were hit by an avalanche Thursday near 14,345-foot-high Blanca Peak, about 140 miles south of Denver.

Ground crews were searching for the woman Friday but a helicopter was forced back because of high winds, Alamosa County sheriff's spokeswoman Carol Orton said.

The brother was taken to a hospital but the extent of his injuries wasn't immediately known. He had to hike out to get within mobile-phone range to alert authorities, Orton said.

No names had been released.

[Trackster366]

Actually just read that news story myself about a blanca slide...anyone have any better info?

-L

[HikeforTurns]

just second hand (or twentieth hand) info. It may have been in the hourglass??

http://www.14ers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=11226

http://www.slvdweller.com/

[~mikey b]

sometimes I do not understand the CAIC....

They dropped the hazard rating from HIGH to CONSIDERABLE yesterday afternoon, and the danger rose trend shows nothing of the day's HIGH rating.

I feel like I'm missing something here.

[CG]

sometimes I do not understand the CAIC....

They dropped the hazard rating from HIGH to CONSIDERABLE yesterday afternoon, and the danger rose trend shows nothing of the day's HIGH rating.

I feel like I'm missing something here.

Noticed that too

Anyway I was on Berthoud today, on North West and West slopes (Hells Half Acre), The was a consistent 4-5" loose top layer then a 1-1.5 meter layer of consolidated snow. The consolidated layer was sliding to the ground with as few as 4 wrist taps and up to 5+ elbow taps. We also did a rutschblock test, that took considerable force to get the section to slide, I'm 220ish.

[smitchell333]

6"-18" of new depending on aspect.

Good powder skiing.

Danger is present primarily in the possibility of deep slab slides with the basal layers mostly all to shit. For the most part below treeline the new snow was not a problem as the winds had not yet been so bad as to really slab things out.
Definite variability with someplaces at treeline seeming to have a deeper and more solid pack underneath, but others totally inverted with crap underlying the wind slabs forming. Several large naturals noted on above treeline east/northeast/southeast aspects, seeminly in the new snow and stepping down into older layers at times.

We kept the terrain to low angle and only a bit steeper well below treeline.

Saw a number of others going bold. Even hitting lift gully/rush chute with a wind drift on top almost identical to the same spot above the cliffs btwn Rush and Nitro where a deep slab released Thursday. Why take the risk for a line I've skied dozens of times and is at most 30 turns?

[HikeforTurns]

6"-18" of new depending on aspect.

Good powder skiing....

Saw a number of others going bold. Even hitting lift gully/rush chute with a wind drift on top almost identical to the same spot above the cliffs btwn Rush and Nitro where a deep slab released Thursday. Why take the risk for a line I've skied dozens of times and is at most 30 turns?

Smitchell,

We were up there at the top of lift gully, and while I would agree if you hit the right spot it would probably go, its not quite the same as the slab between nitro and rush, because that area doesn't really have a compression zone (just cliffs), so it would be more prone to sliding. I definitely wouldn't want to center punch lift gulley (we ended up heading back skiers right to the plunge), just thinking out loud.

Thoughts??


edit:

here is a pic of the area.

[smitchell333]

There may be some effect above or not above cliffs and there may be some ski compression in LG, but that is the almost identical aspect, elevation, steepness, and wind loading feature to the one that slid. If it has the same collapsing/sliding layer I'd say it could go easily. The gully is prone to sliding and as an active avalanche path I'd avoid it in times of any serious question of the danger.

Skiing more towards the pass into the trees as many people do certainly does reduce the danger, although some of that is slide terrain as well.

Terrain management for me means when its sketchy try to stay off as much slide terrain as possible for those times of high danger.

Smitchell,

We were up there at the top of lift gully, and while I would agree if you hit the right spot it would probably go, its not quite the same as the slab between nitro and rush, because that area doesn't really have a compression zone (just cliffs), so it would be more prone to sliding. I definitely wouldn't want to center punch lift gulley (we ended up heading back skiers right to the plunge), just thinking out loud.

Thoughts??


edit:

here is a pic of the area.

[Rontele]

Big arctic cold front should be slamming into the State, Tuesday into Wednesday. With a new, prolonged period of exceptionally cold temps (highs below zero), i'd expect that facet factory to be at full bore.

Based on smitchell's observations, I think things are going to go from bad to worse.

Thanks for the continued observations, all!

[lemon boy]

Rontele-

I could be off the reservation here, and I might be misunderstanding you but…

We have a lot of snow right now and at least around the pass I don't see the facet layer (at bottom) growing significantly during the coming cold snap. Now, getting a surface hoar layer I could see. On the E side of the pass the snowpack is 150-250cms in a lot of places.

=====================================
Did two big pits on Sat both below (but not a lot below) treeline on the E. side of Berthoud, the first (due W facing) was ~170cms, with a relatively shallow DH layer (25cms), quite a bit of consolidated old snow.

Shovel shear produced 2 Q2 blocks and then 1 Q3 through the consolidated snow into the facets.

Shovel tap, new snow failed at 2 from the elbow. Destruction testing took out the whole column at 3 from shoulder.

ECT - no failure (eg: new snow failed at 2 from elbow, but no prop.), destruction testing never propagated even with ridiculous wailing from the shoulder and the shovel intruding into the column.

Rblock - new snow failed with the first little downweighting, destruction testing got subsequent layers to go at 3 jumps and to the ground at 7 jumps

E side, WNW ~230cms (wind loaded) same shallow DH layer (25cms).

Shovel shear produced a couple of Q2 blocks and again Q3 to the facets, was able to pull a couple of ENORMOUS columns out of the thing ~3' tall, the ECT test I was able to pull out as a huge piece weighing 80+ #s and probably 4' tall (pulled out to make room for the rblock)

Shovel tap, new snow failed at 2 from the elbow, destruction testing took out another huge column at 2 from shoulder

ECT - no failure (eg: new snow failed at 2 from elbow, but no prop.) destruction testing never propagated even with ridiculous wailing from the shoulder and the shovel intruding into the column.

Rblock - new snow failed again with the first little downweighting, destruction testing got a second failure at the first jump (1.5' deeper), 4th jump another 1.5' deeper still, 8th jump to the facets.

Lots and lots of new snow this last week, pretty damn stealth way to rack up what I'd guess to be 35" or more in some spots.

On the not-a-pit side of things, the skiing has been deeep and most of the new snow has been softer than slabbier outside of ridgelines and open spots. I've thrown a couple of hard ski cuts on little tiny things that haven't budged and a whole pile of uptrack cheese wedges have not moved. No whoomphing but in more exposed areas I've had some shooting cracks (not particularily long though).

=======================================

I'm trying to sort out how I feel about the ECT results from above w/r/t the Rblock results.

Also pretty amazing to see how much snow the wind has moved back into the zone that ripped above the W. Side cliffs.