2008-2009 Colorado Snowpack Observations

**FrankZappa** · 11-30-2007, 10:42 AM

For the record, lets see how these charts from the fire weather snow forecasts do for the big November ender.

All from this point forecaster at fire weather

12/3 Post storm update. It looks to me like these guys did a pretty decent job overall on forecast amounts - especially in the 24 hor outlook portion of a 48 hour graph. They have tons of weather sites not only in Colo but nationally. Also note that a few sites (like the Aspen area one) are not in the same place that the areas may be measuring their snow - but I think in general the numbers come in.

Monarch
No report, but CAMs look like maybe 2"-6" at midday 12/1
No report, but CAMs look like maybe Add'l 6" at midday 12/2
12/3/07: We received 10 inches of snow over the weekend

Butte
Crested Butte 6:30a 12/01 = 9"
Crested Butte 6:52a 12/02 = 21" - 30" past 48 hrs = total by 12/3

Silverton
Dec 01 AM: 24 inches new snow;
Silverton Mountain 12/02 36 inches past 24 hours;
12/03; 48 inches past 48 hours;

T-ride
Telluride 8:37a 12/01 = 10"
Telluride 5:46a 12/02 = 12" 24 inches past 48 hrs
12/3 23 inches past 72 hrs

and a kinda clusterfuckt Wolf Creek
Wolf Creek 9:00a 12/01 = 28"
Wolf Creek 8:35a 12/02 = 12" 43 inches past 48 hrs
12/3 48 inches past 72 hrs

Aspen
Aspen Mountain 5:30a 12/01 = 5"
Aspen Mountain 5:53a 12/02 = 21" 26 inches past 48 hrs

Snowmass 5:28a 12/01 = 11"
Snowmass 5:56a 12/02 = 18" 29 inches past 48 hrs
12/3 29 inches past 3 days

Berthod
Anybody get any beta on Berthoud?

Mid Vail
Vail 6:00a 12/01 = 4"
Vail 5:30a 12/02 = 11" 15 inches past 48 hrs
12/3 15 inches past 72 hrs

Tunnel
Loveland Ski Area 5a csr 12/01 = 2"
Loveland Ski Area 6a csr 12/02 = 10" 12 inches past 48 hrs
12/3 12 inches past 72 hrs

Reported snowfalls from http://www.rsn.com/snow/welcome.html?page=state&name=CO

**GBB** · 11-30-2007, 11:51 AM

FZ where are you getting those charts from?

**FrankZappa** · 11-30-2007, 12:04 PM

Originally Posted by givebackbloom

FZ where are you getting those charts from?

Originally Posted by FrankZappa

...

All from this point forecaster at fire weather

Use the linked. Select a dot you want. Scroll down thru various charts.

**couloirman** · 11-30-2007, 12:05 PM

WTF is up with that wolf creek graph? negative total snowfall?

**FrankZappa** · 11-30-2007, 12:08 PM

Originally Posted by couloirman

WTF is up with that wolf creek graph? negative total snowfall?

Here was my take on it

Originally Posted by FrankZappa

I dig it when the weather charts go thru the roof... to the point that they can't handle it... where the guys making them just get overwhelmed to the point where they just.........throw up their arms, and say "Awww fuck it! you get the idea."

**couloirman** · 11-30-2007, 12:16 PM

Originally Posted by FrankZappa

Here was my take on it

good guess, i accept your answer...

**Hacksaw** · 11-30-2007, 10:41 PM

Originally Posted by FrankZappa

Which common old friend do you speak

The man....

Tim S.

**montanaskier** · 11-30-2007, 11:00 PM

This storm blows!

**Avalanche_Observer** · 11-30-2007, 11:55 PM

Given the snowfall totals expected, this comes as no surprise - if those totals begin to be realized (2-3 feet) an avalanche warning is probably a given sometime over the weekend along with a natural avalance cycle.

The past couple of NAM and GFS runs bring the snow to an end in the mountains by mid-afternoon on Sunday. If you decide to venture out, choose your routes carefully and look out on those aspects that were previously wind loaded and/or covered in cohesionless sugar snow!

COZ012-018-019-060-066-068-011400-

AVALANCHE WATCH
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
259 PM MST FRI NOV 30 2007

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.

...AVALANCHE WATCH BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN...ELK...WEST ELK...SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ISSUED DUE TO THE THREAT
OF AVALANCHE ACTIVITY...

THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER IS ISSUING AN AVALANCHE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SAN JUANS...ELK AND WEST ELK MOUNTAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN SAWATCH RANGE.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS.

THE THREAT OF NATURAL AVALANCHES AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.

BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THESE REGIONS. TRAVEL IN OR BELOW AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED IN THESE AREAS. SAFE BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL WILL REQUIRE ADVANCED AVALANCHE SKILLS.

THIS WATCH IS VALID THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS STATEMENT IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TO PERSONS USING THE BACKCOUNTRY OUTSIDE DEVELOPED SKI AREA BOUNDARIES. WHEN NECESSARY SKI AREAS USE AVALANCHE CONTROL METHODS WITHIN THEIR BOUNDARIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL AVALANCHE INFORMATION...CALL...970-482-0457 IN FORT
COLLINS...719-520-0020 IN COLORADO SPRINGS...970-668-0600 IN SUMMIT
COUNTY...719-395-4994 IN BUENA VISTA...970-247-8187 IN DURANGO...
303-275-5360 IN DENVER. OR VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
AVALANCHE.STATE.CO.US

MELLICK
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
2007-08 WATCH 1

$$

**montanaskier** · 12-01-2007, 06:02 AM

nasty ice layer considering it has rained at 8100 feet for several hours now.

**Avalanche_Observer** · 12-01-2007, 09:42 AM

Where are you in Eagle County, montanaskier?

**FrankZappa** · 12-01-2007, 01:58 PM

Added reported snowfalls to graphs at top this page. Mid day 12/01 from AM area reports to RSN.

For most of the ones I had, that I can cross ref, so far the predicted amounts seem pretty accurate from those guys at Fire weather.

**montanaskier** · 12-01-2007, 05:07 PM

I would not recommend skiing anything with an easterly aspect. Inbounds today I saw at least 4 small slides. The largest one was right below the cliffs on chair 4. It was probably 12" deep and 50 or 60 feet long, appeared to be remotely triggered and straight wind loading. Be careful.

**Avalanche_Observer** · 12-01-2007, 09:06 PM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

Inbounds today I saw at least 4 small slides. The largest one was right below the cliffs on chair 4. It was probably 12" deep and 50 or 60 feet long, appeared to be remotely triggered and straight wind loading.

"the cliffs on chair 4" was probably supposed to give me a clue on which ski area this was...but where was this?

**montanaskier** · 12-01-2007, 11:17 PM

Vail..........

**Rontele** · 12-02-2007, 09:41 AM

Skinned up from Vail Pass towards Uneva Pass and Uneva Peak. Started out kind of greenhousy, warm, eventually turning over into power nukage with lots of wind. Where there was a shallow snowpack, there was whoomping and cracking, but the propogations did not run far. Ski cuts didn't get anything to run either.

The bad news was that there were few turns to be made because there wasn't a huge base up there. This is especially evident above treeline, where the snow is scoured and the base is very very thin. Below treeline, on shallower slopes, there is a good pack, the other good news is that after the pack settles a bit, this was some great base building snow. Quite thick and consolidated. The wind however is going to create some sensitive slabs, especially where the snow is sitting above the old faceted pack.

Have your wits about you and stick to lower angle slopes (which will ski better with a thinner pack).

Edit to add some weather analysis: looks like the Renegade start to December will continue this week. After ridging Monday and Tuesday, the westerlies look to punch inland with what the GFS has been advertising as a strong shortwave for Wed./ Thurs favoring the northern and central mountains. The GFS then reloads the trough with another deepening system to the southwest for the weekend. Moisture looks good too!

**montanaskier** · 12-02-2007, 02:29 PM

Skied at Vail today again and again it was tits. They dropped the rope and chair 11 today and it was knee and thigh deep everywhere. I once again saw a small slab slide below chair 4. Anything east facing and 30 degrees or more saw lots of cracks. A HUGE slab break below chair 11 near the cliffs. Probably 18-22" deep and probably 50-75 feet across. Be careful until this gets a chance to set up a bit.

**lemon boy** · 12-02-2007, 05:19 PM

did a little, tiny, teensy bit of hiking at the pass today. Went over to "just look at" lift gully. Had a probably ~45'x30' slab crack but not move below and just above me (I was not in a position where I could possibly have gone anywhere) but even below me where it was steep enough to move it didn't. 20mins later two people skied it (stayed right of bush jump) and set of 2-3 little soft slabs including one that was triggered relatively remotely. tender. shallow. I'm really out of shape.

windy

**Rontele** · 12-02-2007, 05:58 PM

LB, coverage looks good on the Pass! Those are similar conditions to what we saw yesterday.

**~mikey b** · 12-02-2007, 06:12 PM

about 2' of new at Vail Pass today - no skiing, but great riding

had a second-hand report of a snowmobile triggered slide on Shrine Bowl that was 300' wide and 2-3' deep - went to the ground at the top. Report was that the rider was uninjured, but his sled is still buried last I heard...

**Rontele** · 12-02-2007, 06:35 PM

Mike,

Sorry we didn't see you yesterday. Had a nice talk with Trevor (?). It creeped him out that I knew you from the internetz, but he seemed real nice.

I believe that you guys got that much considering how hard it snowed while we were out.

**pechelman** · 12-02-2007, 09:37 PM

also at vail today

my friend was there when the fracture happend right under the top of 11
if you looked more closely, cracks shot out from there about 50-75 ft into the wood skiers left.

cracking EVERYWHERE
seriously.

**montanaskier** · 12-02-2007, 10:54 PM

Originally Posted by pechelman

also at vail today

my friend was there when the fracture happend right under the top of 11
if you looked more closely, cracks shot out from there about 50-75 ft into the wood skiers left.

cracking EVERYWHERE
seriously.

we saw cracks in lots of places, places that hadn't broke yet but the cracks were obvious.

**pechelman** · 12-02-2007, 10:59 PM

so let me ask a snowpack question here rather than a worthless observation that "cracking everywhere."

how does this cracking bode for the snowpack after this new cracking snow settles and then is eventually loaded again with new snow?

**montanaskier** · 12-03-2007, 07:46 AM

I'm a newb avie jong, but my guess on our pack so far is that this storm was really good for the pack. It was mostly wet and heavy. The issue was with all the wind loading. Once this layer has time to setup, I expect it to bond pretty well with what was on the ground. I do think that pretty close to the ground is a really weak rotten layer that will probably persist most of the season.....