due to the increasing avi risk i 3 pinned at the bird today - felt safer in the flock - after decades of tele turns i still suck so i did laps on chichadee and dick bass to big emma - except for the 70 mph winds it was a fine day
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due to the increasing avi risk i 3 pinned at the bird today - felt safer in the flock - after decades of tele turns i still suck so i did laps on chichadee and dick bass to big emma - except for the 70 mph winds it was a fine day
Good stuff on some LCC south-facing aspects this morning. That storm came in heavy and did a great job filling stuff in. Very consolidated base covered with a layer of soft pow in sheltered areas was very fun riding. The wind definitely did a number last night and raked the west-facing aspects. Stayed away from any east-facing steep stuff - tons of wind loading. No instabilities noted where we were (played it super safe though...)
It's going to be a beautiful day up there. Alta's looking downright wintery.
Skied a mellow east facing shot at 9500' this morning, same obs as tradygirl. Consolidated base with a couple inches of pow on top, fast and smooooove.
que the Jaws theme music:
http://perpetualweekend.com/wordpres...acificWeds.gif
Gotdamm that's purdy!
To quote winston wolfQuote:
Originally Posted by The Gnarwhale
"Lets not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet."
The event in question will come in the form of a diggin pacific trough that will sharpen off the california coast and swing inland. First on a SW flow precip will overspread the region on sunday night. Then as the trough moves inland a moist and somewhat unstable environment will prevail for roughly the next 48-60 hours. However the amout of embedded lift, upper level divergence and instablity will vary and isn't quite clear right now. So you have to temper excitement just a touch. From this far out I'd say a general 1-2 foot snowfall is reasonable for the Central and Northern Wasatch.
Edit: I will embed the Jaws theme closer to the date per lionelhutz's instructions.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Gnarwhale
I like that we have our own personal TGR weather man. What channel can we find you on lionel?
Quote:
Originally Posted by lionelhutz
"Your sending the Wolf?"
Jesus. Lionel did I step on your toes and not know it?Quote:
Originally Posted by lionelhutz
From the degree-holding meterologists at the UAC today:
Sheesh.Quote:
Major storm system on tap for the weekend through next week. First wave arrives Saturday, coming in warm and windy, benefitting the Ogden and Provo and Park City mountains. Winds expected to be 40mph with strong gusts...Frontal passage at this time looks to be Saturday night as the Cottonwoods catch-up. Next waves arrive later Sunday and on through Wednesday-plus. Multiple feet of snow expected with this large scale Pacific trough.
http://www.canpages.ca/blog/wp-conte...ionel-hutz.gif
Disagreement among professionals is ok as long as no one gets killed.
i take noaa over wolf:
"Increasingly strong but mild southwest flow will be over the area through Friday. A broad trough will develop over the western U.S. this weekend with a series of storms rotating through the trough beginning Saturday. At this time it looks like we will see a 5 day long storm cycle from Saturday through Wednesday with potential for significant snowfall. Forecast confidence is higher than average for this event."
^^hopefully this storm pans out. Stuck to skiing mostly mellow stuff in upper LCC today. CT 16 Q2 below graupel 8'' down on a NE slope at apx.9800'.
kind of a newb when it comes to this stuff but trying to learn more, at what point in a CT would it generally be considered safe to ski?Quote:
Originally Posted by tyfalk
There are many others on here who could better answer this question than myself. There are more factors that would play into understanding if a slope is safe or not other than just that one test. But the depth of the failure, quality of fracture, pitch of the slope and a number of other things would make me feel one way or another on the results of a CT.Quote:
Originally Posted by dfinn
No! I was just saying I think the some of the hype was a little premature as the system has been shown on some models to cut off a little too far off the cali coast. Maybe I should have been more clear.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Gnarwhale
I have degrees.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Gnarwhale
Regardless:
As we move into the weekend a large pacific trough will deepen as it swings down out off the coast of the California. As it deepens and swings into california and the west it will bring with it upper level divergence and an unstable moist airmass. Overall the system will first bring precip on a south west flow, then as the trough moves through region it will bring precip enhanced by a western flow. Precip will begin on sunday and last through at the least tuesday.
Adding all this up I'd suspect upper cottonwoods storm totals to reach 2-3 feet with more possible if the western flow remains steady and the vertical motion matches up.
-- TrackHead's right (See Below)--
Maybe I'm not up to speed, but I doubt most readers of this thread are going to look at all those crazy rainbow depictions of flow, or whatever they are.
In the end, who gives a shit what the weather might do, doesn't mean shit until you wake up in the morning anyway.
ah, the mysteries of snow.........so much still unknown............Quote:
Originally Posted by dfinn
for newb's and seasoned vets, a general overview of snow, wind, terrain, aspects, angles, and how everything affects, well, everything else is a long hands on learning process. read the local avi report every day whether yer going out or not and learn the speak, the warnings, the accident reports/pictures, and danger ratings. read a book, take a course and take frequent walks out into white world and take it all in.
another thing that is so important for snow know is getting out and spending time in other regions with different weather and snowpack makeup/stackup. someone may know/recognize a ton about the ways of a wasatch snowpack, but may not have a clue of how, say a maritime snowpack works. if shit hits the fan in the wasatch for someone that only knows that snowpack and they see something foreign from some strange weather event that basically throws them a curveball when assessing, it could cause some serious issues in deciding whether it's safe to go or better to no.
read, listen, learn, and go often. keep it simple and less than scientific to start, at least.
rog
This^^^Quote:
Originally Posted by Trackhead
I used to pour over those maps and charts to figure out every minute detail of the upcoming storm. Over the years I've come to realize that all of the weather hype in the world is unimportant, if it snows it snows. Now I'm more concerned about what the storm did. What were the winds and where, what direction. Storm totals, water content, winds before the precip, temp change before, during. Stuff like that.
You'll never get a hard and fast number for stuff like that. This is not science, it's voodoo magic.Quote:
Originally Posted by dfinn
In reality that's all that matters.Quote:
Originally Posted by zion zig zag
that^^^^^^^^Quote:
Originally Posted by zion zig zag
and then the fucking thing becomes a splitter. better to just sleep on it.
Just to add to the hype, from today's 3p discussion:
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM GFS SHOW A SATURATED UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THROUGH 470 MB WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND STRONG FLOW FOR
OROGRAPHICS. THIS POTENT SITUATION CONTINUES FOR DAYS. IF TODAY`S 12Z
RUNS PROVE CORRECT...5 DAY STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD BE VERY LARGE...MANY FEET...BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
Report from the 'roy.
Shredding the gnar corduroy on the 44mm wide, edgeless fruit boot skis. Got some weird looks from the brah's at Alta skating up the groomers, then hacking my way down. Good way to build the lungs and the skilz for the phat skeez.
http://i795.photobucket.com/albums/y...g?t=1290056604
^^^ Nice!
so is alta allowing uphill now?Quote:
Originally Posted by Trackhead
Well, they allowed me, but they probably felt sorry for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Slaag Master
The vertical motion is really off the charts from like the 21st to the 22nd. That's very very good.Quote:
Originally Posted by pointedem
50 would be a good solid number, with a Q3++Quote:
Originally Posted by dfinn
Seriously, take an avy course.
Just HAD to X-post this...
http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7661505/
So, who is this at BD?:FIREdevil
Actually, some of us do! It might make the difference between waking up in LCC rather than ORD.Quote:
Originally Posted by Trackhead
I use the weather forecast to see if I need to call the morning report at 5am and call in sick.
Vacation next week
I use it to determine if it's worth driving 7 hours for a couple days of skiing before we open here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Deep
I just looked at the latest model guidance and it looks like a ton of atmospheric instability overnight from the 21 to 22 and then again from the 22-23. Should co-incide with spikes in the precip rate. Temps will really support dentritic growth in the second period so you should see some super fuckin flakes in the latter half of the storm. The first half might have some less then puffy snow given the winds and full temp profile
So i think what you're saying is its going to come in a little warm (which I had heard/seen) and as the next few days pass and the cold starts coming in with each passing storm phase the snow will get lighter....sounds perfect...some base material to cover up whatever might be left to cover and then the snow we want to see...Utah BLOWER!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by lionelhutz
Thanks. cant wait.
I will be at Alta on Saturday. Don't usually make is down to the cottonwoods much the last few years. Does anyone want to meed up for some runs?
11.17.10
http://www.zachclantonphotography.co...1-for-web1.jpg
http://www.zachclantonphotography.co...-5-for-web.jpg
All the wind and graupel didn't seem effect upper northeast through northwest aspects. The dense snow made for fast and carvable conditions and no instabilities were noted with ski cuts. Rime and wind crusts were observed on the ridgelines.
Full TR @ http://www.zachclantonphotography.com/blog
West faces were jacked today
http://perpetualweekend.com/wordpres...0/IMG_9131.jpg
Ty and I checked out a +200' wide hard slab that probably went on Tues. SSE facing, 2-6' deep and ran on sun-crusted October snow. Sled tracks above the crown made us wonder if it was remotely triggered or a natural.
http://perpetualweekend.com/wordpres...0/IMG_9136.jpg
It slid to the ground where the Oct snow ended. The debris looked scary.
http://perpetualweekend.com/wordpres...0/IMG_9163.jpg
Sheltered NE facing was still skiing alright. Solar aspects were getting damp by noon and everything else is a mess of rime, windboard, and sastrugi.
Also, the Alta slideshow is tonight. http://altaarts.org/events/welcometowinter2010 BYOB.
Damn bro those BE pics from 11/7 fkna rock.Quote:
Originally Posted by ZachClanton
Headed up silly fork like gnarw said a mix of about every funkified wind jacked snow surface imaginable, good turns on creamy pow sheltered trees of davenport.
Other than a few weak collapses no real instabilities noted or observed