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We’re seeing in some [locations], but not all, rapid declines after hitting a peak, and we expect that the epidemic will have largely swept through the world now by the end of March – a little bit longer than previously thought because the Omicron wave in China seems to be not yet taking off, and that is such a large population that it does affect the global epidemic.
Our forecasts remain fundamentally the same. As the Omicron wave sweeps through the world, maybe a bit delayed in China, we will come through the Omicron wave sometime in April with a large fraction of the world (50% or more) that have been infected with Omicron, with the highest levels of population immunity that we’ve observed, and, barring a new variant, we should have a period of relatively low transmission for weeks or months. In the Northern Hemisphere, that might well extend through the summer and into the fall.