thanks for the info/update.
that was a different rating than when I just checked too :(
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thanks for the info/update.
that was a different rating than when I just checked too :(
Predictable. Winds picked up significantly this morning/now. Be safe folks, don't ski stupid shit.
I've kicked off some stuff onto LC Rd. in the past, and there are two very obvious slide paths that come down into the ruins right uphill from the cliff bands. Good anchored trees before that though, although there is a major terrain trap gully you want to avoid. Line choice is pretty critical there, and not too many people venture out there enough to know where they are and where they are headed.Quote:
Originally Posted by telemike
Thanks for the report. That Ptarmigan slide sounds scary. Same path that ran earlier this week?
yep - same path, and it went pretty big I guess
lot's of complicated terrain, and things seem to be fracturing mid-slope in many areas , so once you are committed...
thanks for the update, mike. things are going from bad to worse.
now if I can only get the fack out of the office.....
A few shots from Helitraxs work on Tuesday. Ophir area.
Point em.Quote:
Originally Posted by telemike
ski fast
take chances
Huck yer bacon!
Didn't know about this one, #3?
Quote:
Associated Press
Vail, CO Colrado
January 11, 2008
CommentComments Print Friendly Print Email Email
CREEDE, Colorado — Authorities in Alamosa County said a man reported his sister was missing after they were hit by an avalanche Thursday near 14,345-foot-high Blanca Peak, about 140 miles south of Denver.
Ground crews were searching for the woman Friday but a helicopter was forced back because of high winds, Alamosa County sheriff's spokeswoman Carol Orton said.
The brother was taken to a hospital but the extent of his injuries wasn't immediately known. He had to hike out to get within mobile-phone range to alert authorities, Orton said.
No names had been released.
Actually just read that news story myself about a blanca slide...anyone have any better info?
-L
just second hand (or twentieth hand) info. It may have been in the hourglass??
http://www.14ers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=11226
http://www.slvdweller.com/
sometimes I do not understand the CAIC....
They dropped the hazard rating from HIGH to CONSIDERABLE yesterday afternoon, and the danger rose trend shows nothing of the day's HIGH rating.
I feel like I'm missing something here.
Noticed that tooQuote:
Originally Posted by telemike
Anyway I was on Berthoud today, on North West and West slopes (Hells Half Acre), The was a consistent 4-5" loose top layer then a 1-1.5 meter layer of consolidated snow. The consolidated layer was sliding to the ground with as few as 4 wrist taps and up to 5+ elbow taps. We also did a rutschblock test, that took considerable force to get the section to slide, I'm 220ish.
6"-18" of new depending on aspect.
Good powder skiing.
Danger is present primarily in the possibility of deep slab slides with the basal layers mostly all to shit. For the most part below treeline the new snow was not a problem as the winds had not yet been so bad as to really slab things out.
Definite variability with someplaces at treeline seeming to have a deeper and more solid pack underneath, but others totally inverted with crap underlying the wind slabs forming. Several large naturals noted on above treeline east/northeast/southeast aspects, seeminly in the new snow and stepping down into older layers at times.
We kept the terrain to low angle and only a bit steeper well below treeline.
Saw a number of others going bold. Even hitting lift gully/rush chute with a wind drift on top almost identical to the same spot above the cliffs btwn Rush and Nitro where a deep slab released Thursday. Why take the risk for a line I've skied dozens of times and is at most 30 turns?
Smitchell,Quote:
Originally Posted by smitchell333
We were up there at the top of lift gully, and while I would agree if you hit the right spot it would probably go, its not quite the same as the slab between nitro and rush, because that area doesn't really have a compression zone (just cliffs), so it would be more prone to sliding. I definitely wouldn't want to center punch lift gulley (we ended up heading back skiers right to the plunge), just thinking out loud.
Thoughts??
edit:
here is a pic of the area.
http://www.forrestthorniley.com/imag...rorushslab.jpg
There may be some effect above or not above cliffs and there may be some ski compression in LG, but that is the almost identical aspect, elevation, steepness, and wind loading feature to the one that slid. If it has the same collapsing/sliding layer I'd say it could go easily. The gully is prone to sliding and as an active avalanche path I'd avoid it in times of any serious question of the danger.
Skiing more towards the pass into the trees as many people do certainly does reduce the danger, although some of that is slide terrain as well.
Terrain management for me means when its sketchy try to stay off as much slide terrain as possible for those times of high danger.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HikeforTurns
Big arctic cold front should be slamming into the State, Tuesday into Wednesday. With a new, prolonged period of exceptionally cold temps (highs below zero), i'd expect that facet factory to be at full bore.
Based on smitchell's observations, I think things are going to go from bad to worse.
Thanks for the continued observations, all!
Rontele-
I could be off the reservation here, and I might be misunderstanding you but…
We have a lot of snow right now and at least around the pass I don't see the facet layer (at bottom) growing significantly during the coming cold snap. Now, getting a surface hoar layer I could see. On the E side of the pass the snowpack is 150-250cms in a lot of places. :fm:
=====================================
Did two big pits on Sat both below (but not a lot below) treeline on the E. side of Berthoud, the first (due W facing) was ~170cms, with a relatively shallow DH layer (25cms), quite a bit of consolidated old snow.
Shovel shear produced 2 Q2 blocks and then 1 Q3 through the consolidated snow into the facets.
Shovel tap, new snow failed at 2 from the elbow. Destruction testing took out the whole column at 3 from shoulder.
ECT - no failure (eg: new snow failed at 2 from elbow, but no prop.), destruction testing never propagated even with ridiculous wailing from the shoulder and the shovel intruding into the column.
Rblock - new snow failed with the first little downweighting, destruction testing got subsequent layers to go at 3 jumps and to the ground at 7 jumps
E side, WNW ~230cms (wind loaded) same shallow DH layer (25cms).
Shovel shear produced a couple of Q2 blocks and again Q3 to the facets, was able to pull a couple of ENORMOUS columns out of the thing ~3' tall, the ECT test I was able to pull out as a huge piece weighing 80+ #s and probably 4' tall (pulled out to make room for the rblock)
Shovel tap, new snow failed at 2 from the elbow, destruction testing took out another huge column at 2 from shoulder
ECT - no failure (eg: new snow failed at 2 from elbow, but no prop.) destruction testing never propagated even with ridiculous wailing from the shoulder and the shovel intruding into the column.
Rblock - new snow failed again with the first little downweighting, destruction testing got a second failure at the first jump (1.5' deeper), 4th jump another 1.5' deeper still, 8th jump to the facets.
Lots and lots of new snow this last week, pretty damn stealth way to rack up what I'd guess to be 35" or more in some spots.
On the not-a-pit side of things, the skiing has been deeep and most of the new snow has been softer than slabbier outside of ridgelines and open spots. I've thrown a couple of hard ski cuts on little tiny things that haven't budged and a whole pile of uptrack cheese wedges have not moved. No whoomphing but in more exposed areas I've had some shooting cracks (not particularily long though).
=======================================
I'm trying to sort out how I feel about the ECT results from above w/r/t the Rblock results.
Also pretty amazing to see how much snow the wind has moved back into the zone that ripped above the W. Side cliffs.
You're likely not off the reservation, its probably me. I agree that surface hoar is going to be a hudge problem in the upcoming days with WFO Boulder saying that we could experience some of the coldest temps in FORTY YEARs.
I always thought that large temperature gradients in the snowpack added facet growth, but I could be way off base...
Woolbury commented to me that in Floral Park the other day he dug a pit to the ground and saw TWO feet of facets at the bottom of the pack. :eek:
i hesitate to comment here because i really have very little experience in comparison to the other posters here, but it seems like the reservation is somewhere in between both sides and on both sides at the same time.
We've got a super variable snowpack and snowdepth with our crazy wind event from not so long ago. We've got deep and we've got shallow.
It would seem to stand that the deep pockets already have the 2ft'ish depth hoar fromo the ground from early season snow that was left around when that one cold snap came through a couple weeks ago. I also wouldnt think DH development would change that much in these deeper pockets as whats done is done and the deeper pack helps to insulate against this new colder weather. I havent gotten out there and measured snow pack temperature profiles, so I really dont know. Maybe we'll get some hoar and facet development in the middle layers of the pack?
On the thinner spots on the western half of the compass, id think that we might see a similar scenario to what happend to the deep pockets just a couple weeks ago. Possibilities of full depth hoar.
in a nutshell, super variable sketchy colorado snow pack.
beware and dig.
1 deep pit from yesterday for what little it is worth as a single data point...
below treeline, just below 11K NE facing, very open trees ~30deg, ~2mi N of two elk pass
250-220 F
220-165 4F
165-135 1F
135-95 P
95-40 P-K-P
40-0 1F-P (medium sized facets with some cohesion)
2xSCT H5 Q2 @ 135
Good thoughts, Phil. I agree with your sentiments.
Variability has been bothering me since the begining of the season.
summit, which box of cereal do I need to buy to have the right decoder ring to understand that ;)
I can probably get behind what both of you are saying, I have only been travelling to and skiing things that are out and out deep lately.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
A little more analysis from the previous fatality. Some scary quotes in there.
Quote:
The three men — a skier and two snowboarders — carried beacons, shovels and probes. Two of them had taken avalanche safety classes, Toepfer said.
“They knew the avalanche rating,” said Don Dressler of the Forest Service. “They had the equipment. They followed the one-at-a-time rules.”
The men did tests — so-called “ski cuts” and “stomp” tests — at the top of the chute to assess its safety, Toepfer said.
In fact, one of those tests triggered a smaller avalanche, about 1 foot deep, that exposed the slope to a substantial amount of weight, Toepfer said.
“Far more weight than you, me, my son, my dog going down the slope at the same time,” Toepfer said.
That was a factor in their decision to ski the chute, Toepfer said.
The men didn’t dig a snow pit to do compaction tests, Toepfer said. The top of the slope was exposed and the men would have been in danger, he said.
Brigham was the last of the three to ride the chute. He was two turns into the chute when it slid.
The avalanche slid on a very small, weak layer about 7 feet deep in the snowpack, Toepfer said. The weak layer was just 1 millimeter thick, he said.
“This layer, if you were out there studying (the snowpack), you’d probably never find it,” Toepfer said.
hudge surface hoar feathers at Ptarmigan Pass today
Here's a pit that we dug a few miles from the summit of Buffalo pass on the western side on a WNW aspect on about a 27 degree pitch. This was on Sunday. The forecast for the Steamboat area was considerable however the pit showed good stability. I also found the area to be much more consistent then summit/vail where there had been massive wind loading.
Here's what my buddy wrote the CAIC regarding information observed from the pit.
--
After studying your reports we decided that our best bet was to head to the boat and investigate this new 3-4 ft. It was truly epic. I have attached a picture of our pit and the failures I observed. I would say most of what you posted was pretty accurate. We dug about 10-11 feet deep to reach the bottom. The poke test didn’t give too many clues but it was apparent that as you moved deeper the snow was much more consolidated than the really light snow on top. About 4 feet into the pack was an apparent hard icey layer that had pine needles in it (this layer did not fail during the testing). About 5 inches above this icey layer and 4 inches about that did fail at level 6. Of note was that the hoar layer in this spot was not as bad as I was expecting. It was about 3 inches in depth and seemed to most resemble this crystal formation: http://www.lpsi.barc.usda.gov/emusnow/comparison/10.jpg a longer hexagonal crystal.
--
http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/4...0150hd7.th.jpg
Which one was this makers?Quote:
Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark
-L
story about Matt Gustafson, who died at EV on Saturday, in the Vail Daily
http://www.vaildaily.com/article/20080115/NEWS/96196623
http://vdimg.sv.publicus.com/apps/pb...xW=550&title=1
Matthew Gustafson, who died Saturday in an avalanche in an East Vail chute, stands at the top of a backcountry run three years ago in the same area.
http://vdimg.sv.publicus.com/apps/pb...xW=550&title=1
Matthew Gustafson sails off a cornice in East Vail. Gustafson, 33, of Vail, died Saturday in an avalanche in the same area.
A memorial service for Matthew Gustafson will be held at Vail Interfaith Chapel, 19 Vail Rd., Thursday at 3 p.m. A reception will follow at Garfinkels.
Tuesday encountered medium and smaller surface hoar ~12 miles WNW of that location... found on most aspects near and below... however I noted that by the end of the day, most aspects below treeline had experienced heating that destroyed or greatly shrank the surface hoar. Unfortunately, sun exposed aspects had developed a very thin sun crust by sunset.Quote:
Originally Posted by telemike
Went out today for the first time in a while. Thought I would share this:
The circled tree is about 50-75 years old. It's roughly 250 feet away from and 75 feet above the Slate River. And at some point during the massive early January storm, the "Climax chutes", as they are known, ripped out and took the tree with it. It's not a great photo, but you get the idea. I guess that's what happens when 4 or 5 feet fall in 3 days.
http://i168.photobucket.com/albums/u...8003circle.jpg
thanks guys.
this discusion has been extremly helpfull to me.
I too, will start posting my observations, in a latter less wasted state. but as a longtimme lurker...I thank you.\
holla at your boy when you see him eatin a hot dog in DA STREET.
CAIC has a good read on a close call in December in the East Vail area
made a few turns today at vail pass
Poking around in the snow all day didnt reveal a whole lot to be honest.
The top 2 layers, one being the new snow and the other the snow before that felt the softest when punching through until you hit consolidated snow all the way i can reach with my pole without bending over. Felt confident in the snow but the forecast i had just heard and the history so far this season still didnt set well.
so we decided to dig a hasty pit to isolate a few columns just to see whats happened with all this new snow
~11,700 ft - near but below treeline
SW Facing slope / 25*
looking at the pit wall and looking for weak layers it just wasnt obvious that there were any. The whole thing , besides the new snow, was 1-4 finger. I was generally shocked to see such well consolidated snow without any prominent weak layers.
Our compression tests revealed 2 weak layers at ~25 and 30cm (if im remembering correctly) The weak layers, which were extremely thin, were sitting between 2 cohesive slabs with Q1 shears. Really not very confidence inspiring given that they failed simultaneously around 8 wrist taps. Id say the only way to really have found these weak layers on examination of the wall was with a credit card or something similar. Doing some quick hand pits on the way up would have definitely revealed them as well.
We didnt dig deeper than about 4 ft which was all consolidated. Surprised not to see facets even if we only dug 4ft.
overall, not at all confidence inspiring on the snowpack.
on a sidenote
was that you telemike that I was talking to?
i had the white helmet, red jacket, goatee, and 183bros. (had my gf and my buddy with me)
figured youd have said something being i had those skis.
yep - that were me - should have asked about the Bro's
Your assessment is about what I've been seeing too. There are facets down on the ground - a whole bunch of them. I've not been having glaringly spooky test results, but it seems like every day or two we see something new slide in some random place or other.
I too, have very little confidence in the snowpack, and am making conservative terrain choices.
I was out Corral Creek to Uneva Pass today. Very good turns.
oh, yeah....almost forgot.....
AVALANCHE WATCH
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
807 AM MST SUN JAN 27 2008
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.
...AVALANCHE WATCH BULLETIN FOR THE SAN JUANS...GRAND MESA...WEST
ELK...ELK...AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO...
THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN AVALANCHE
WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO.
HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
NEW SNOW AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY LOAD SLOPES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WATCH MEANS THAT NATURAL AVALANCHES AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES
COULD BECOME LIKELY.
BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS IN THESE REGIONS. TRAVEL IN OR BELOW AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THESE AREAS. SAFE BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL WILL REQUIRE
ADVANCED AVALANCHE SKILLS.
THIS WATCH IS VALID THROUGH 8 AM MONDAY MORNING.
THIS STATEMENT IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TO PERSONS USING THE
BACKCOUNTRY OUTSIDE DEVELOPED SKI AREA BOUNDARIES. WHEN NECESSARY
SKI AREAS USE AVALANCHE CONTROL METHODS WITHIN THEIR BOUNDARIES.
FOR ADDITIONAL AVALANCHE INFORMATION...CALL...970-482-0457 IN FORT
COLLINS...719-520-0020 IN COLORADO SPRINGS...970-668-0600 IN SUMMIT
COUNTY...719-395-4994 IN BUENA VISTA...970-247-8187 IN
DURANGO...970-920-1664 IN ASPEN...303-275-5360 IN DENVER. OR VISIT
OUR WEB PAGE AT AVALANCHE.STATE.CO.US
LOGAN
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
2007-08 WATCH 8
Sat. I had some slide activity in the hourglass at BP. On my way down to the entrance I kicked off a 5-10' pocket 4-6 inches deep and nothing else moved so I proceded to the entrance where I got a view of all the hazards (from the top as I had already scoped it from below). decided I was comfortable and dropped in, about 3 turns in it ripped with me in the middle of it all. Luckily only the fresh soft wind slab pulled out 6" deep 15-30' wide.
I str8 lined for the choke as soon as I saw everything get blocky and funneled in with all the snow just trying to stay on my feet and get through the chock with out any hang ups. Got through and out of the way as fast as I could and I was in the clear. At the choke the snow was like white water as it constricted the flow and things seemingly slowed down a bit. At that point the moving snow around me was mid thigh to waist deep, and as I was spit out the other side the snow went a diffrent way than I did.
http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w...rglassslab.jpg
The aspect was mostly N NE facing and below tree line, pretty steep too(im guessing 40+ish?).
Today we went to tea cup bowl and on the first run we had a soft slab pull out. It was of no suprise as there has been alot of activity on SE facing aspects, there was even signs of natural released small soft wind slab just to the side of the aspect we were planning to be on. Knowing the danger we discussed what might happen if it does rip. We were clear about staying away from "strainers and cheese graters" and having a clean run out just in case. Just as expected it slid and just as planned my buddy had a clean run out. Once the slide stopped we spoke as I could not see him but apparently he was not buried much. His legs were burried about 2 feet deep or less and his pack seemed to give his torso floatation. he came to a stop near the front of the toe.
He was free and moving 3 minutes or less after it stopped.
He had an avy lung and beacon so if he was fully burried the chances of survival were still pretty acceptable to us as I was in my snow shoes not too far away with my shovel and probe out and ready.
The slab ripped 6"-1' on avarage at the crown is our estimate, and I would guess it propogated around 100' wide and had a track of about 100-250'. It was the fresh soft windslab that pulled out and I don't think it stepped down. It also did not run out into the flats but stoped on the lower angle hill above it.
http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w...ox/teacup3.jpg
http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w...ox/teacup4.jpg
http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w...acupslide2.jpg
http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w...acupslide3.jpg
Yep. Stronger gradients = weaker snowpack.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
The colder it is outside and the shallower the snowpack is, the stronger the temperature gradient is from 0C at the base down to -whatever at the surface.