Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

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Originally Posted by Viva

Wanna bet? They may not engage in the activities you outlined above, but they are capable of chemical communication on the basis of population density. There's a lot about these fuckers that we don't understand. Do a web search on "quorum sensing".

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Seriously? Wow.

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Originally Posted by Tips^Up

The clinic refused to test us when we were showing symptoms. Our primary care physician is strongly suggesting the anti-body test is worthless.

I've warned my wife that putting our baby back into daycare is the end of our social distancing. There's no way to socially distance from a baby and handing her off to a caregiver (that also watches other kiddos) exposes us to all those kids' and their parents, as well as exposes the babysitter (woman in her late 60's? no idea if there's any pre-existing conditions, but she seems to need the business) to our interactions. The doc I spoke to today said we can't hole up forever and since we're a couple weeks from first symptoms, we're probably good...

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Your primary doc either only has access to bad tests or is mis-informed. There are now multiple tests with quite good Sensitivity and Specificity- eg the Abbott assay is being run at UW Med center with 99.6% specificity and 100% sensitivity among 14 days+ post symptom onset. Fortunately, the FDA is clamping down on the Ab tests finally and demanding some data to back them up.

Saying "the antibody test is worthless" is like saying "Ford makes crap cars. Therefore, all cars are crap."

Wifey got AB test yesterday.
Negative. She’s sad. I am too
We were both sick AF in feb.

But it’s cool
It means ppe and distancing are actually working.
Ymmv

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Originally Posted by Skidog

Is this directly related to easing restrictions or just more testing though?

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Way too early for it to be the result of easing restrictions. Just shows they (and other states) have gone off half cocked.

Inslee extends Washington stay at home order until May 31. We are currently in Phase 1

Attachment 327074

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Originally Posted by KQ

Inslee extends Washington stay at home order until May 31. We are currently in Phase 1

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Holeeeeee fuk.

That’s messed up.

Civil disobedience.
Another month before you get to phase 2?
Maybe phase 2. Or maybe another week of lockdown. Fuck that. It’s not warranted.

If you can go to the supermarket with ppe and distancing, Can’t you go to any retail store with distancing and ppe.

The Karen’s are in control. Bend Overgon.

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Originally Posted by Tips^Up

The clinic refused to test us when we were showing symptoms. Our primary care physician is strongly suggesting the anti-body test is worthless.

I've warned my wife that putting our baby back into daycare is the end of our social distancing. There's no way to socially distance from a baby and handing her off to a caregiver (that also watches other kiddos) exposes us to all those kids' and their parents, as well as exposes the babysitter (woman in her late 60's? no idea if there's any pre-existing conditions, but she seems to need the business) to our interactions. The doc I spoke to today said we can't hole up forever and since we're a couple weeks from first symptoms, we're probably good...

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Sorry to hear of your misfortune, glad you seem to be on the mend.
With standard colds and flus, the non contagious clock ticks from when you start feeling well, not when you got sick as far as I can tell. Seems like that means 14 days from now for this horrible bug.

Notice: I do not have a license to practice in Colorado and this is not to be construed as lethal advice :)

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Originally Posted by Core Shot

Another month before you get to phase 2?

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Minimum of three weeks, apparently. Inslee says three weeks minimum between phases to make sure numbers are still going down. Makes sense to me. If you're going to bother going through all this effort there's no reason to fuck it up by moving too soon.

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Originally Posted by The AD

Way too early for it to be the result of easing restrictions. Just shows they (and other states) have gone off half cocked.

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Yeah so if tied to more tests it's more data at least. ??

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TGR Forums mobile app

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Originally Posted by Core Shot

Holeeeeee fuk.

That’s messed up.

Civil disobedience.
Another month before you get to phase 2?
Maybe phase 2. Or maybe another week of lockdown. Fuck that. It’s not warranted.

If you can go to the supermarket with ppe and distancing, Can’t you go to any retail store with distancing and ppe.

The Karen’s are in control. Bend Overgon.

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Well at least there is a phase two past the collect underpants of phase I.

Working in a particular quadrant, can't say I'm missing Amazon out on extended WFH.

Edit: looked like things had almost quieted down completely locally and then 800+ new infections in state today. I'm expecting the virus to take the weekend off again.

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Originally Posted by Skidog

Yeah so if tied to more tests it's more data at least. ??

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But what if it's not tied to more tests and just that the real numbers aren't trending down yet? Maybe I'm wrong, but I have a feeling GA is going to regret moving too soon.

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Originally Posted by DBdude

the lying was at the local level... china is a complicated place and things are not as cut and dried as just saying you can't take china on their word. you always have to go to the opposition and dissident press based in Taiwan

that said, they have by at least a factor of ten under counted the dead in Whuhan. the 4500 does not bear scrutiny

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I have a good Taiwanese friend who alerted me to Chine 25 years ago. So I might be biased. But saying you need the Taiwanese press to find the trust is not that different than saying trust nothing coming from China. No?

Exits in and out of Gallup NM are blocked off. Unless you have a Gallup address, you’re not getting in.

25,000 city population; 1096 cases in the county. Number of cases in the state 3056.

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavi...llup-lockdown/

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Originally Posted by Lvovsky

Exits in and out of Gallup NM are blocked off. Unless you have a Gallup address, you’re not getting in.

25,000 city population; 1096 cases in the county. Number of cases in the state 3056.

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavi...llup-lockdown/

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But if you can't go to Gallup, how are you going to get your kicks on Route 66?

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Originally Posted by iceman

Charts like that are pretty useless if you ask me. Sure we have a lot more cases than every country on that chart but with the exception of China we also have a lot more people. The numbers look more reasonable when you look at cases per million population and deaths per million population: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (scroll down to the numbers)

I'm not saying we're doing well by any means but graphic representations, especially on a logarithmic scale, can be somewhat misleading.

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This, the graphs are just propaganda. Classic "There are liars, damned liars and there are statistics."

By selectively choosing how data is displayed one can show just about any conclusion.

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Originally Posted by bodywhomper

i've had viral bronchitis that mimics what you've described (and other moderate respiratory infection symptoms). about 12 years ago.

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So, you are saying COVID-19 has been around for 12 years?


;)

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Originally Posted by Deebased

half a percent fatality rate that's primarily 65+ isn't going to prompt the walking dead but broken food supply chains sure as hell will.

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Like the Tyson plant and the pork factory in SD. Yeah. Ducking exactly.

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Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

But if you can't go to Gallup, how are you going to get your kicks on Route 66?

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Pass through ok. No stopping for gas, food, or hotels.

Not a lot of places to get kicks open anyway.

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Originally Posted by greg

Well I was trying to give a simple example why looking at population/infected is not a meaningful indicator in a pandemie. Do you agree? Of course the petridish is a simplification to make a point. I didn’t say we were all living in petridishes.

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It's a gross over simplification. Your analogy might be slightly accurate if there was only one point of infection and nothing moved. Think of it more like sneezing over a few dozen petri dishes. You can't compare the one petri dish of the US with the 28 dishes of the eurozone. Again, it is all about how you tabulate and display the data. A better comparison is the US vs western Europe (but still not very accurate.)

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Originally Posted by Lvovsky

Pass through ok. No stopping for gas, food, or hotels.

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Sounds more like the premise for a Twilight Zone episode than real life.

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Originally Posted by toast2266

What are the circumstances that would lead to the fall wave being worse (scenario 2)? If society locks down as happened this spring, why would the fall wave proceed substantially differently than the wave we're in the midst of right now?

I guess maybe more unrest and societal inclination to ignore lockdown orders? Colder weather? (Although I thought the rona didn't care too much about heat?)

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Two main reasons, first the fall will start with a lot more people being infected then we started with this winter. Two, people will not social distance as well in the fall (and they did/are doing a pretty shitty job of it now) because many will feel it don't work the first time. Smaller bumps further down the road may reflect more immunity in the population. The overall immunity level in fall won't be that much better then it is now.

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Originally Posted by greg

Well yeah, that is not true. If you drop a bacteria on the breeding ground of a petridish the culture will grow just as fast no matter how big the petridish is. Only the point in time when the bacteria doesn’t find any more material to breed on (herd immunity) will differ depending on the size of the dish. But most likely none of the countries you are looking at have reached that point.

Let’s say you have a virus or bacteria that infects 1 person per day. And you have two communities, one with 10 people and one of 100 people. Starting out with one infected person, the community with 10 people will have 50% of its population infected after 5 days, the population with 100 people only 5%. Does that mean the community of 100 people has taken more appropriate measures to stop the desease? It doesn’t.

What makes a difference in the example of the petridish is if you have bacteria dropped in one place at the beginning or in two places. The petridish with two points of outbreak will have twice the growth rate compared to the petridish with only one point of outbreak. That is why testing, tracing and tracking is so important. Social distancing is just the Stone Age method that you have to solely rely on if you don’t know what is going on.

That is also why a second outbreak could be more desastrous than the first outbreak if you didn’t use the time of distancing to figure out what is going on. Thanks to the distancing the virus has slowed its spreading, but it’s still spreading. So if you just stop the distancing without knowing who is infected, it could start to grow from many more points which effectively could result in a much higher growth rate.

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But seriously, wtf are you talking about? Certainly not my post that you quoted.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/01/84916...despite-orders

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The data, provided to NPR by a mobile phone location data company called SafeGraph, is based on the locations of approximately 18 million mobile phones across the country. NPR's analysis determined the percentage of cellphones that did not leave their "home" location daily in every U.S. county.

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Originally Posted by iceman

But seriously, wtf are you talking about? Certainly not my post that you quoted.

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His example may be flawed, but I get the point he's trying to make. The total population of a country probably isn't all that relevant. The virus is going to spread how it's going to spread based on R0.

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Originally Posted by Viva

You mean that there's more to it than all the folks currently infected are producing antibodies targeting the spike protein, and folks who have recovered did so because they produced antibodies against the spike protein?

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Scientists aren't going to say that people who have antibodies after recovering are immune from reinfection until it's been proven, no matter how likely it seems. If there's one thing we know about medicine and about biology in general is that just because something should be true doesn't mean that it is. When Fauci says it's so, then it's so, and the stock market will go up 1000 points.