Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

Then the grass might not seem so green over there.

Life gets grimy in the details. You just see it more when you understand the language/culture.

But, by all means, get yourself some rosetta stone and move along...

I've spent a total of four months there over five visits recently. It's not perfect, but, it's ok. They like us, btw, and I like them.

[Ted Striker]

Or get horny and head to the titty bar.

Complementary Covid-19 test with every basket of wings!

[Rideski]

[altasnob]

New report from rock star epidemiologists Osterholm, Lipsitch, and others. Some key points include "the length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population" (assuming no vaccine before then). "60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic." They describe three possible scenarios of peaks and valleys, with scenario 2 being worst case scenario and the one we should prepare for. Just like a good joint, we are hoping for the "slow burn" scenario 3.

They cite Herd immunity – estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries, which has an interesting table of countries and "minimum proportion (%) of total population required to recover from COVID-19 to confer immunity." US is 69.6% but other countries are higher (Spain 80.7%) and lower (Canada 56.5%, S Korea 30.1%).

[Benny Profane]

New report from rock star epidemiologists Osterholm, Lipsitch, and others. Some key points include "the length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population" (assuming no vaccine before then). "60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic." They describe three possible scenarios of peaks and valleys, with scenario 2 being worst case scenario and the one we should prepare for. Just like a good joint, we are hoping for the "slow burn."

They cite Herd immunity – estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries, which has an interesting table of countries and "minimum proportion (%) of total population required to recover from COVID-19 to confer immunity." US is 69.6% but other countries are higher (Spain 80.7%) and lower (Canada 56.5%, Korea 30.1%).

Just saw him on CNN. They only believe only 5-10% infected so far. Ugh. Long way to go. His simple math in a conservative estimate says 800,000 dead in USA

[The SnowShow]

New report from rock star epidemiologists Osterholm, Lipsitch, and others. Some key points include "the length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population" (assuming no vaccine before then). "60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic." They describe three possible scenarios of peaks and valleys, with scenario 2 being worst case scenario and the one we should prepare for. Just like a good joint, we are hoping for the "slow burn" scenario 3.

They cite Herd immunity – estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries, which has an interesting table of countries and "minimum proportion (%) of total population required to recover from COVID-19 to confer immunity." US is 69.6% but other countries are higher (Spain 80.7%) and lower (Canada 56.5%, S Korea 30.1%).

Hopefully we will be able to lessen the blow of the fall wave with preemptive and continued social distancing, coming from a place where we weren’t already having huge events like concerts, sports and packed public transportation/restaurants?

[toast2266]

New report from rock star epidemiologists Osterholm, Lipsitch, and others. Some key points include "the length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population" (assuming no vaccine before then). "60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic." They describe three possible scenarios of peaks and valleys, with scenario 2 being worst case scenario and the one we should prepare for. Just like a good joint, we are hoping for the "slow burn" scenario 3.

They cite Herd immunity – estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries, which has an interesting table of countries and "minimum proportion (%) of total population required to recover from COVID-19 to confer immunity." US is 69.6% but other countries are higher (Spain 80.7%) and lower (Canada 56.5%, S Korea 30.1%).

What are the circumstances that would lead to the fall wave being worse (scenario 2)? If society locks down as happened this spring, why would the fall wave proceed substantially differently than the wave we're in the midst of right now?

I guess maybe more unrest and societal inclination to ignore lockdown orders? Colder weather? (Although I thought the rona didn't care too much about heat?)

[bodywhomper]

Update: my little family (wife, 9 month old, myself) are about 14-16 days out. Respiratory coughs, headaches, body aches, high fevers for all 3 of us. I took baby girl in to the respiratory clinic, they would not test her or me because 1) it sucks to test babies, 2) we're low risk, 3) tests suck - not very accurate, 4) it doesn't matter.

Now we're looking to put her back into daycare next week, as we get back to more typical work schedules. We had postponed her 9-month checkup until we were in the clear. We all still have persistent coughs but mostly feeling great. Her appointment is Monday, we have requested antibody tests. I've spoken with 2 different nurses and finally the doctor called me directly. He says the antibody test is crap. It was rushed through, tests positive for 5 alternative flus as well as covid-19, the test is highly inaccurate, and, even if our results were correct, there's no proof the antibodies stick around. So I guess nobody knows nothing.

The doc said we're basically all doomed to get it eventually, until a vaccine comes out (which, based on the test for covid, and the antibody test...my confidence levels for being an early vaccine adopter are very low), just hope when it hits you, you're in good health and your local hospital has vacancy.

Short story long, we're fucked and nobody knows anything about this.

Glad you all are feeling better. Unclear to me, did your wife get tested and test positive?

If you all had it, how do you know that you are still not actively shedding virus through respiration or coughing? How about spreading through fecal (thinking about toddler at a day care)? I remember fecal shedding was observed from the fancy lab in nebraska, which was part of the argument used for the USOC to pull the plug on participation in the Olympics. i'm not sure if the poop shedding is still a thing or a concern.... W/o that info, the whole get the kid back to day care sounds like it could go badly for many others.... but maybe i'm missing something or my reading comprehension is low...

[Benny Profane]

What are the circumstances that would lead to the fall wave being worse (scenario 2)? If society locks down as happened this spring, why would the fall wave proceed substantially differently than the wave we're in the midst of right now?

I guess maybe more unrest and societal inclination to ignore lockdown orders? Colder weather? (Although I thought the rona didn't care too much about heat?)

He doesn't know. Just working on past history of virus pandemics. It's one scenario. Maybe not.

[TG]

I'm a little confused with the discussion of herd immunity. As far as I understand it, nobody is sure that immunity exists for those that have been infected. Yet these discussions of numbers/population percentages required to reach herd immunity seem to assume that immunity is a given.

Have I missed some big news about immunity being demonstrated and a valid assumption?

[Skidog]

I'm in the industry not in the technical sense that you are but I do have a handle on security, privacy, basic DBA, and did work on some of the hardware end back when differential GPS was a thing. I would agree with the statement "if you have a mobile it's already too late and you're already signed up"

Yeah you have 100% "signed up" for the capability to be tracked. Now being tracked by govt is a much different subject. Currently, by legal standards, a warrant would be technically required to access that information.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TGR Forums mobile app

[Bunion 2020]

I'm a little confused with the discussion of herd immunity. As far as I understand it, nobody is sure that immunity exists for those that have been infected. Yet these discussions of numbers/population percentages required to reach herd immunity seem to assume that immunity is a given.

Have I missed some big news about immunity being demonstrated and a valid assumption?

Only that Influenza does offer some herd immunity. And yet again, this ain't the flu.

[Skidog]

Well I was trying to give a simple example why looking at population/infected is not a meaningful indicator in a pandemie. Do you agree? Of course the petridish is a simplification to make a point. I didn’t say we were all living in petridishes.

Unless you're one of those poor people trapped on a cruise ship.

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[mall walker]

Yeah you have 100% "signed up" for the capability to be tracked. Now being tracked by govt is a much different subject. Currently, by legal standards, a warrant would be technically required to access that information.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TGR Forums mobile app

yeah, it’s a big difference imo. you can make the argument in favor, but if you’re arguing for GPS, just know it won’t even solve the problem...

[Bunion 2020]

And to add. Like to admit it or not I suspect that in the future after the initial 18-24 month burn there will be an Influenza season with a different or a few different strains around the world and a Covid season much the same. This shit is now into humans it won't leave, ever.

[The SnowShow]

Georgia: 1,000 new COVID cases in the last 24 hours.

[DougW]

I'm a little confused with the discussion of herd immunity. As far as I understand it, nobody is sure that immunity exists for those that have been infected. Yet these discussions of numbers/population percentages required to reach herd immunity seem to assume that immunity is a given.

Have I missed some big news about immunity being demonstrated and a valid assumption?

I think as certain amount of immunity has and can be assumed but its complicated. I don't think any one wants to go with there no immunity after infection as that really means there is a high probability that there is no possibility of an effective vaccine. There is evidence that a small % of infected don't get antibodies, a larger % that get antibodies but such a low level that they may only have limited immunity.
https://elemental.medium.com/can-you...e-185e4d05d614

"another recent preprint paper from China revealed that out of 175 people who recovered from Covid-19, 10 never developed antibodies. What’s more, 30% of people in the study had very low antibody levels, raising questions about whether they would actually be immune to the virus if they encountered it again."

[Core Shot]

Wow
Six pages while I was finishing the workday
And hanging with friends for a distance cocktail
And then making dinner for the fam.

And you all have decided what, exactly?

[Viva]

Plus the bacteria aren't sentient. They don't get bored, decide to go climbing, fall, and get airlifted to the local hospital.

Wanna bet? They may not engage in the activities you outlined above, but they are capable of chemical communication on the basis of population density. There's a lot about these fuckers that we don't understand. Do a web search on "quorum sensing".

[Skidog]

Georgia: 1,000 new COVID cases in the last 24 hours.

Is this directly related to easing restrictions or just more testing though?

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[Skidog]

Wow
Six pages while I was finishing the workday
And hanging with friends for a distance cocktail
And then making dinner for the fam.

And you all have decided what, exactly?

I suck at combining post replies so I am surely part of the 6 page problem...adhd gets a hold and o rapid respond. My apologies to all. Really not trying to pad post count. I mean I'm king of the tilt.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TGR Forums mobile app

[Tips^Up]

Glad you all are feeling better. Unclear to me, did your wife get tested and test positive?

If you all had it, how do you know that you are still not actively shedding virus through respiration or coughing? How about spreading through fecal (thinking about toddler at a day care)? I remember fecal shedding was observed from the fancy lab in nebraska, which was part of the argument used for the USOC to pull the plug on participation in the Olympics. i'm not sure if the poop shedding is still a thing or a concern.... W/o that info, the whole get the kid back to day care sounds like it could go badly for many others.... but maybe i'm missing something or my reading comprehension is low...

The clinic refused to test us when we were showing symptoms. Our primary care physician is strongly suggesting the anti-body test is worthless.

I've warned my wife that putting our baby back into daycare is the end of our social distancing. There's no way to socially distance from a baby and handing her off to a caregiver (that also watches other kiddos) exposes us to all those kids' and their parents, as well as exposes the babysitter (woman in her late 60's? no idea if there's any pre-existing conditions, but she seems to need the business) to our interactions. The doc I spoke to today said we can't hole up forever and since we're a couple weeks from first symptoms, we're probably good...

[Benny Profane]

Wow
Six pages while I was finishing the workday
And hanging with friends for a distance cocktail
And then making dinner for the fam.

And you all have decided what, exactly?

We've decided to transfer you to the Atlanta branch. Flight Monday morning. Good luck!

[KQ]

Update: my little family (wife, 9 month old, myself) are about 14-16 days out. Respiratory coughs, headaches, body aches, high fevers for all 3 of us. I took baby girl in to the respiratory clinic, they would not test her or me because 1) it sucks to test babies, 2) we're low risk, 3) tests suck - not very accurate, 4) it doesn't matter.

Now we're looking to put her back into daycare next week, as we get back to more typical work schedules. We had postponed her 9-month checkup until we were in the clear. We all still have persistent coughs but mostly feeling great. Her appointment is Monday, we have requested antibody tests. I've spoken with 2 different nurses and finally the doctor called me directly. He says the antibody test is crap. It was rushed through, tests positive for 5 alternative flus as well as covid-19, the test is highly inaccurate, and, even if our results were correct, there's no proof the antibodies stick around. So I guess nobody knows nothing.

The doc said we're basically all doomed to get it eventually, until a vaccine comes out (which, based on the test for covid, and the antibody test...my confidence levels for being an early vaccine adopter are very low), just hope when it hits you, you're in good health and your local hospital has vacancy.

Short story long, we're fucked and nobody knows anything about this.

Well that's depressing. Glad you feel better but overall the narrative is depressing.

[Core Shot]

We've decided to transfer you to the Atlanta branch. Flight Monday morning. Good luck!

Benny, best post yet. Cheers mate!