I have a feeling this is going to be really bad. The Tampa Bay area is likely to get pummeled.
Printable View
I have a feeling this is going to be really bad. The Tampa Bay area is likely to get pummeled.
Is warthog in Tampa Bay? Stay safe, mang.
Sigh.Quote:
DeSantis reportedly refused to talk to the vice president about hurricane relief in his state less than a week after Hurricane Helene pummeled the area and while another powerful storm, Hurricane Milton, will likely make landfall later this week. “Kamala was trying to reach out, and we didn’t answer,” a DeSantis aide told NBC News
Attachment 501615
Scary as shit:
Dropped 91mb in 24 hours. 4th strongest in the Atlantic Basin, cloud tops at 60,000’. Sustained winds of 180 with gusts to 225.
While the intensity is forecast to drop before landfall, I think the surge is going to be way higher than forecast. This storm is essentially pushing the gulf into the west coast for 3+ days. That’s 3 days of continuous amplification of storm surge.
My mom lives on a canal in Port Charlotte in a “red” evacuation zone. She evacuated with her husband to Ft Lauderdale. I really hope they will have a home to return to.
Wow, hope so.Quote:
Originally Posted by spanky
Orlando, iirc? Probably fine, maybe some post-storm bullshit and sadness with such proximity to the crushed western bays.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2FUNKY
Agreed. Bad vibes on this one. 15 foot storm surge funneled right up Tampa's ass.Quote:
Originally Posted by The AD
red on this map is 9ft+ ...
Attachment 501652
9 ft+ above ground! Not above sea level.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norseman
yep
yo warthog, hope you are getting the hell outta there
Just spent 5 days in Orlando, got home Monday night. Saw this one coming and changed our flights to leave 2 days earlier. What amazed me was how many locals were totally unaware or nonchalant about the storm. The track had it going straight through there. Yes I know it’s inland but still. Scary. Vibes to all affected, stay safe.
Yeah, my in-law side of the family (MIL, and her bros.) have places spread between Englewood and the general area around the Rotunda. The UIL that is in Englewood is right on the inland waterway and his likely fucked. My MIL is in a house on an inland canal system that was built up just high enough to stay above the storm surge from Ian in 2022. The water surface level in the canal is something like 4-5' ASL. If the 9+' of surge does go through there, they may have a lot of cleanup. Milton's forecast certainly looks like it may be worse than Ian for my MIL as her place will be near the eye wall quadrant that will be pushing water onshore. We convinced them all to head to SE (miami-ish) FL to at least get themselves out of the bullseye.Quote:
Originally Posted by spanky
Good to hear they evacuated. My aunt and uncle in Venice (zone c) left for the east coast. Another aunt lives in Osprey (zone a) and is staying. She’s on the second level in a concrete building, but is literally spitting distance to the boats in the marina.
This was the surge at mom’s for Helene…
Attachment 501671
Attachment 501672
Checking in from Jax. House was already a disaster with floors removed to slab, and 2 ft of wall removed throughout. Hoping to return to that level of disaster, and not more. Electrical, cabinets, furniture, etc were spared on the first round. Left my Jeep on the 2nd story offsite parking garage at the airport, snuggled close to the elevators and covered.
https://photos.smugmug.com/Auto/Jeep...MG_1372-4K.jpg
Wife's car already has a claim on it, so we left it. Company car was towed away already. Drove the Bronco and rental Silverado (total lifesaver) to Jax with 2 full tanks and 15 gallons extra in the back of the pickup. Hoping for the best, but wishing it wouldn't hit anything. Happy Halloween kids.
Attachment 501676
Just kidding. Good luck out there.
That’s devastating to read warthog. I’m very sorry for the upended world you are going through.
John Morales, wx guru, is predicting that it’s not going to be a cake walk for those in the general Orlando area…
Yeah I mean the last one went what 300-400 miles inland up hills?
What happens to an oil platform when it’s hit with 200 mph winds?
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
Orography is what fucked North Carolina during Helene. At least there are no mountains to contend with in Orlando. They'll get rain and wind, but I can't imagine it will be anything like Asheville.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rideski
that, and the fact that shit was flooded before the hurricane even got here.Quote:
Originally Posted by The AD
Back to category 5 with 165mph winds. 905mb. A lot of models have shifted it a little south, with Sarasota area now getting the eye at landfall.
I leave the islands during hurricane season to avoid these storms, but here I am in Lakeland, FL with the gf trying to help her family. I already did my turn surviving Irma, so really not wanting to go through this again. Supposed to be at the Annapolis Boat Show this weekend, but I expect I'll be helping with cleanup now.
How many folks will call it quits on FL as a place to live after this season?
I'd still be ok with Key West (or even Marathon) but nothing north of there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
Good luck JTQuote:
Originally Posted by skiHOG
Latest model run has Tampa Bay to the north of the storm…Quote:
Originally Posted by skiHOG
Attachment 501696
Some for sure (I think my in-laws may be among them) but it will be negligible. The US went a decade plus without a major named hurricane making landfall from 05-16 and plenty of people moved to Florida during that stretch thinking it would be the new normal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
My guess is you’d need a more sustained period of major storms hammering the state before you see any meaningful population shift. If anything I think insurers leaving the state will do more to accelerate that than any storm itself but that’s just my opinion.
^^^ agree. But I keep hearing this may be the 1-2 punch of storms that sends insurers packing?
I was watching CBS evening news earlier tonight and the weather guy was making the point the worst of the storm would be north of the eye.Quote:
Originally Posted by spanky
I guess perhaps "how much north" is the question.
Since Tampa appears to be missing the brunt and worst case scenario I think the insurance market survives but barely. Rates probably go up significantly from already the highest in the country.Quote:
Originally Posted by The SnowShow
Can anyone explain the reasoning behind this? I would have thought the worst would be south of the eye based on the rotation and it making landfall on a west facing coast.Quote:
Originally Posted by fomofo
Waffle House Hurricane Index:
https://apnews.com/article/waffle-ho...b50035a0da7819
After seeing how much new construction was taking place in the Port Charlotte area after Ian, I doubt people are going to stop moving to the area. So many northern boomers that want warm weather and seem to have money to burn.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
It's why hockey exists in Florida.Quote:
Originally Posted by From_the_NEK
Tornadoes reported on the ground. Huge outbreak ahead of landfall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fomofo
Oops, he said more rain and freshwater flooding north, more storm surge south.Quote:
Originally Posted by east or bust
This is what was broadcast last night...
Attachment 501717
"Worst" depends on what metric you're discussing.
In the case of milton, winds look strongest on the N side of the storm. And its windfield is larger. And likely more total rain due to larger storm size on northern half.
But in case of surge, S side of the storm is far worse. The winds will be onshore for those on the south side of the storm which increase surge level and wind driven waves. North side of the storm will have offshore winds which will reduce surge height (compared to what it would be with direct hit or s side of storm).
If i live well outside of the surge but close to the coast, I'd rather be on the S. side of this storm. If I live in a surge area, I'd much rather be north of wherever the eye makes landfall.
I am not a forecaster; but lived in Ft. Myers a long time and have immediate family living in Cedar Key and Gainesville area.
I've got a house about 50 miles inland to the southeast of Tampa. I usually base my nervousness on how my neighbors react and for the first time since we've been there my neighbors are freaking out. In 2022 when Ian went directly over the top of us, no one really seemed to be too nervous, but now a bunch of our friends have gotten out of dodge. This one seems different. Nothing I can do here in Utah, but it's going to be a long night getting updates.
Okeechobee County has two tornadoes on the ground in close proximity. Heading towards Yeehaw Junction.
Alligator Alley also has a tornado warning issued. Poor gators!
Lake Okeechobee has water spouts currently, that may become tornadoes.
You know is bad when seasoned meteorologists say this outbreak is prolific, historic and are shocked.
Say what you will about Waffle House but if information is king then they rule the roost. My wife, who is a retired reinsurance arbitrator/litigator in NYC and currently manages a newsletter for AIRROC, was on a conference call today and the Waffle House Index came up. Nobody was making jokes about Waffle House. This is a real thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by BmillsSkier
Oh it is absolutely a real thing. As Stealurface pointed out with Helene, he knew it was bad when the Waffle Houses in NC were shutting down.Quote:
Originally Posted by halliday
These yellow and brown boxes are more than just purveyors of scattered, smothered and covered potatoes to drunks and tweakers at 4am, they're a community gathering site offering refuge when there is none at home - even more so in rural areas. A valuable thing to have if your life has been washed away by a storm.