Awesome. Now we can build on the killer base we have with this 4" storm that's coming. If we're lucky. Maybe next week we'll get 6".
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Awesome. Now we can build on the killer base we have with this 4" storm that's coming. If we're lucky. Maybe next week we'll get 6".
Ditto, I'm leaving the mountains mid-day Tuesday, returning the following Tuesday...snow is forecasted to fall Tuesday night through the next Monday.:fuckyou:Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
I too will be out of town from Wednesday morning through Saturday morning, so I expect lots of snow that will be crusted out by the time I return.
Godspeed.
And about local news sensationalizing snow storms, maybe if we had more shootings and maybe if the Broncos were undefeated, they wouldn't have time to fill up airtime with 100% inaccurate predictions about a storm that is more than a week away (real predictions shouldn't even occur until 36 hours before the storm is scheduled to hit). Then again, as I've come to do my own research and forecasting for surfing, maybe more people should incorporate that with skiing and leave the hype off the board completely.
This storm is a definate no go. 3-6 inches looks to be the most likely, but I am a negative nelly so I say more like just a couple. I would say that we will be lucky to get 75% of our our normal snow. I hate La Nina!
http://www.vaildaily.com/article/20071119/NEWS/71119006
The problem is that what Klaus is saying doesn't agree with their long-lead forecasts. 75% of normal is still close to 300inches of snow.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
And isn't this your first winter here too?
One of two things can happen. It can either snow or it won't snow, neither of which any of our nerdy forecast can control. Everyone has huts trips and wants it to snow, not just you.
NOAA doesn't seem to completely agree with what was said in the Vail Daily article. While they are forecasting above normal temps for the winter, they are have equal chances of dry or wet conditions for most of Colorado, with a 33% chance of a wetter than normal winter in N. Utah. It does look like I will need to plan a trip or two to the PNW or BC.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...07_midsize.jpg
Read Marshal's lips:
Quote:
Originally Posted by marshalolson
Also look at the Feb/Mar./Apr. long-lead map on the CPC page.Quote:
Originally Posted by funkendrenchman
Right. Their long-lead forecasts differ from what they said. There is a contrarian set of algorythyms and modeling, which produces the result that Wolster is getting in the article. I don't have time to look for it now, but if you google "Colorado and La Nina," I believe it is the 2nd link.
It calls for a far drier winter. Marshal has hit it on the head, however, it is very rare for Colorado to have a freak winter--like 2002--so eventually it will snow, maybe not 400 inches, but 75% of that is still 300 inches.
From 9News today, the last sentence didn't have me jumping for joy:
KUSA - After what seems like weeks and weeks of dry weather and above average temperatures, Colorado is going to have an abrupt change to winter conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.
Monday will be yet another warm and dry day across the Centennial State. Highs in the 70s and even low 80s are possible in eastern Colorado Monday with 50s and 60s in the mountains and western valleys.
A cold front with Polar air will be slamming into the state from the north during the day on Tuesday. Areas in northern Colorado will feel temperatures drop very quickly during the middle of the morning with communities in the central and southern portions of the state having a few more hours of warmth before the front moves in later in the day Tuesday
Very light snow showers will develop in the Front Range mountains Tuesday afternoon with flurries forming later in the evening hours in the Denver-Boulder-Ft.Collins areas.
Wednesday will be cloudy and cold along the Front Range with light snowfall. 9NEWS Meteorologist Marty Coniglio says that while it will be very, very cold right now he doesn't see any indication that the snowfall will be anything but modest for Denver and surrounding communities. There will be an accumulation of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with just flurries late Wednesday afternoon in the Denver area and along the Front Range.
For skiers hoping for a last-minute blast of snow to create ideal holiday skiing conditions this storm is bound to be a disappointment. Some of the ski areas in the northern half of the state will see a few inches of snow, but this storm will not blanket the entire high-country with loads of powder.
(Copyright KUSA*TV, All Rights Reserved)
Here is Klaus Wolster's article
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/
Scroll down about 2/3 of the way to get to the jist of his argument.
Hopefully we can ski the backcountry by January! :fuckyou:
(w/o rock skis)
The backcountry's open right now, with 2000 foot lines out there waiting to be grabbed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
You must of missed the w/o rock skis part. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireallyliketoski
60 and sunny here at 8500ft. Good conditions for a bike ride.
At present, i can only see doom and gloom. I realize that it will snow at some point, but it is hard to see anything but doom and gloom when it is sunny and 64 degrees at my place currently. After this little wave, when do you see the next potential for any real snow? What I see is maybe the first week of December?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
Do you have a mountain/road bike? Sounds pretty nice weather for a ride. I have ZERO clue when it would/could snow substantially. Especially when the HPC doesn't have high confidence in their long range forecasts and the GFS and EC have generally been inconsistent with one another.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Could be the first week in December, could be the third, or it could not snow until January. The point is that I follow the weather because its fun, kind of scientific, and since I primarily backcountry ski, it is a good starting point for avy safety. In no way could I ever possibly think that I could do any sort of forecasting. But the idea is not to allow the prognostications get to you. You have it better than 99% of the population that skis. You live in the mountains, you can get ti when it is good.
This is true. What is of more immediate concern for me is that fact that I will be at my in laws in Carbondale with not enough snow to ski but potentially enough snow and cold to shut down riding, therefore leading to what I call caged animal, trapped at in-laws, psychosis. High possibility of leading to pissing off my wife.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
good point Rontele......I always freak about weather, always. I also follow the weather for the same reasons but I do let it go to me.
I know that the lack of winter so far is shit for business as well, it is all anyone is talking about and everyone seems kinda down. Hopefully it comes soon.
I bet prince creek would be $$$ right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Harv
and montanaskier, its easy to stress about the snow, but then put it into perspective of some of the shit people have to deal with on a daily basis (poverty, disease, war, etc.) and it all seems pretty inconsequential.
very, very, very true. At least the weather will be nice tonight when I am at Monday Night Football!!!!!
Rontele- next time you are in this neck o the woods, lemme know and I will buy you some beers.
Sure thing. Should be a good game tonight and I can report out my window right now that the weather in Denver is pretty f'ing mint.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Young Padawan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
Soon you will realize that all backcountry skis are rock skis here in Colorado.
I buy a new pair of rock skis every season...Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireallyliketoski
Glenwood? I was planning to ride Red Mountain assuming it doesn't snow up there.Quote:
I bet prince creek would be $$$ right now.
Nope. Carbondale. Couldn't tell if you mtn bike or road bike. But if it is the former, PM me and I will give you directions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Harv
kinda windy in Bldr, same around Mile High?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
And, oh, I'm teaching magic carpet rats on Wednesday, guaranteed major dumpage.
I just walked back from the gym and it was breezy, but warm.Quote:
Originally Posted by icanseeformiles(andmiles)
Lots of good riding to be had out here. You wouldn't believe how warm it has been! Prince Creek and Mushroom Rocks should be good even if we get dusted. If it snows it will most likely not stick in Carbondelay, all the green chiles and jalepenos keep it warmer than Snowmass and Aspen....Quote:
Originally Posted by Harv