http://youtu.be/rWmbuKSWLDE
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According to the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds tilt in favor of:
Pacific Northwest: colder and wetter than average. La Niña often results in below-average temperatures and increased mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months. This may set the stage for spring flooding in the Missouri River Basin;
California: colder than average and wetter than average conditions in northern California and drier than average conditions in southern California. All of the southern part of the nation are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Spring flooding could be a concern in parts of this region;
Southern Plains and Gulf Coast States: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these regions;
Florida and south Atlantic Coast: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: wetter than average with equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Potential for increased storminess and flooding;
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
Great Lakes: colder and wetter than average;
Hawaii: above-average temperatures in the western islands with above normal precipitation during the winter. Some drought recovery is expected across the state with Kauai and Oahu having the best potential for full recovery.
Alaska: colder than average over the southern half of the state and the panhandle with below average precipitation in the interior eastern part of the state.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
http://i1114.photobucket.com/albums/...emperature.png
http://i1114.photobucket.com/albums/...cipitation.png
Quote:
Originally Posted by whyturn
you might want to check the dates on those images... JONG!
Got confused by the rapid change since last predict was an El Nino.........Let's try this again
http://i1114.photobucket.com/albums/...-13graphic.jpg
Following a snow drought during winter 2011-2012, the mid-Atlantic and southern New England will get a snow dump this winter.
Above-normal snowfall is forecast for the major I-95 cities, including New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., during winter 2012-2013.
City
Normal Snowfall
Amount
New York City
25.1 inches
Philadelphia
22.8 inches
Baltimore
20.2 inches
Washington, D.C.
14.6 inches
Normal snowfall amounts from the National Weather Service.
Factors Behind the Above-Normal Snow Forecast
The presence of El Niño or La Niña – and their strength – is used to project how active the winter season is going to be. AccuWeather.com Long-Range meteorologists are projecting a weak to moderate El Niño by the fall.
An El Niño pattern is classified by above-normal water temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean. Warming the ocean water in turn warms the air above the Pacific, causing weather patterns to change globally.
El Niño winters feature a strong southern branch of the jet stream across the U.S. When the strong southern jet stream phases with the northern branch of the jet stream (see graphic below), big storms can impact the East.
It should be noted that no two El Niños are the same. The strength of this phenomenon can mean a great deal for winter weather.
Furthermore, there are other factors that influence snowfall amounts for the winter. Enough cold air must meet with big East Coast storms for snow to fall in the I-95 corridor.
El Nino...
Attachment 120593
Man, I hope they're wrong again. Below average in Western MT? :(
I could find that picture that's a snowfall prediction for North America that is basically just a circle around the US and Canada and it says it will probably be cold and snow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stuckathuntermtn
There was a Nino year not too long ago (06/07) when the PNW was basically too warm for snow and had almost no season, MT sat under high pressure all winter and, in the Tetons, I watched almost every big storm of the winter pass by well to the south. We got 300" IF you counted the snow in oct and nov AND only measured on north faces above 9000".
but are people factoring in solar maximums, magnetic field decay, Mayan prophecies and Silver clouds?
im still going with 1000+ inches in Tetons, maybe some will blow up to MT =)
Alaska will be the best hands down, we have been getting hammered by storms all fall and it will be cold enough for snow soon enough. I heard that we have had 5.5 inches of precip this month in Anchorage, sucks now, but will be awesome later.
Are you familiar with the phrase "past results are not indicative of future performance?" What it's doing now doesn't mean shit. Based on your elementary school "logic" regarding weather patterns, I think you need to consider changing your name to "arvboy1."Quote:
Originally Posted by arvman1
For you weather geeks here's some long range predictions/models:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ay/fxus05.html
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html
My non-technical non-researched prediction:
Shames gets feckin hammered again and we have yet another amazing season with a 5m base come end of March (in other words - condition normal).
Interesting data
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...s/0/09/PDO.svg
Red is the warmer and drier porion of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), blue is the colder and wetter portion.
It's an approximately 30 year cycle.
Test: what is the trend for fall 2012?
But my gut still says the PNW will pay for the last few years.
Here's some more info on why you should dread the weak El Nino. Historically, it has produced some shitty results for the north sierras and middle rockies as well as the PNW. Without question, the two worst years for the Tetons that I have seen were a weak EL Nino and a warm neutral winter. Going by this breakdown of Ninos by strength, this could be Colorado's year to win the deep powder sweepstakes.
"Recent research focusing on the variability of El Niño winters with regard to the strength of the underlying SST conditions indicates that weak El Niño’s may very well produce considerably drier conditions across a broader area of the northwest states"
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pih/PDF/ElNi...SepOutlook.pdf
I will take up jogging only to be stymied after three days by sore knees and one chafed nipple.
Agree. It seems every seasoned Puget Sounder I talk to has the same feeling.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster Highmen
I think it will start out ok, a late November opening in the Cascades, normal December, sputtering January then it goes dry. There will be no extended spring season, Steven's bike park will be open by late April.
My money is on Colorado to come up big.
I have a feeling that SW CO is going to be a winner this year. SW flow will prevail and Silverton and Wolf Creek will have the goods. I'm just hoping that the North Central gets some lovin and comes out close to average. Anything better than last year and I'll be good.
http://www.ktuu.com/news/ktuu-first-...,4795778.story
Who needs predictions when you have the results.
Off to a cracking start with our worst opening day conditions of all time. Past butthurt is indicative of present and future butthurt. My prediction is that the Summit/Eagle/Pitkin area golf courses will be open by mid-March.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stikki
2005 was one of the biggest Nino years. No snow in the PAC NW and here in AZ. we got 500 inches on the Peaks.Quote:
Originally Posted by neckdeep