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Just wondering who here thinks the stock market isn't on a bubble?
It's all the same. Just varying degrees of volatility. Kind of like different blind limits at poker tables.
"I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or Jimmy Buffet"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM6exo00T5I
^^^ the Stock Market is certainly in Bubble territory.
2 things.
Every time in the past the bubble has popped, if you held on, eventually it recovered and went higher as a whole. Is there going to be a time when that doesn't happen?
With the current leadership, who can accurately say when the Bubble will pop?
Secular bull # bubbleQuote:
Originally Posted by Not bunion
In 2007, the stock market in general wasn't a bubble, just the creatively engineered mortgage bonds & securities heavily influenced by them like Bear Stearns & Countrywide. Microsoft went down to the teens in 09 before quickly resuming its march to the 50s, 60s and higher.
@swine - the disconnect that gives me pause is the implementation that speculation (referred to as adoption in white papers) is supposed to magically produce. Where are the orgs that will actually drive execution of these concepts? Because I don't believe speculators will hang around for a decade to see things through.
The thing is that even if in bubbles these other classes of asset actually have some underlying value and when they crash they will bounce back to that true value eventually. Stocks are worth some multiple of the profits the company can generate, Houses are worth what they can generate in rent, Gold is worth the jewelry and industrial uses can generate.
What are crypto currencies worth? ONLY what the next guy will pay you for them. And if that’s $0, then that is what they’re worth.
Oh yeah but they are unsinkable like the titanic.
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Speaking of charts....where are cryptos on this timeline if it's applicable? What's the potential viable demographic buy in out of the 7.5 billion people on the planet? How big can the bubble blow, if it is such? What are the unknown unknown potential black swan events on the horizon beyond the obvious like hacks, gov regs, limitations due to energy/computing power?
Out of my depth/wheelhouse and willing to learn. Thanks for your comments regarding bubbles, Summit.
Attachment 219549
Stocks rarely fall significantly when earnings are accelerating regardless of valuation. Bank earnings were rolling over a year before the financial crisis.
Too early to predict earnings with tax changes but comparisons will be difficult next year. Yields over 3% in USD treasury will be compelling for geezers who have big profit in stocks.
That sentiment bell curve is backward looking. No way to predict. Elliott wave tries to predict but it’s too esoteric for me.
Markets might challenge the new fed chair as he tries to unwind QE and has little experience as a central banker.
I’m still bearish dollar which is good for US equity and more so for emerging markets. I’d be interested in buying a leg. down in emerging if China has an equity stumble.
I’ll be watching currency and interest rates as the new year rolls in. Important moves in rates and currency can happen in thin trade next week.
The Bitcoin having a nice bounce. It could get a boost with short covering in the futures when they open back up. Futures closed at 13900 and could be lock limit higher when they reopen. It would be first limit up where it stands right now.
My take as well. I don't invest in things I don't understand and I do not understand the Crypto market.Quote:
What are crypto currencies worth? ONLY what the next guy will pay you for them. And if that’s $0, then that is what they’re worth.
Oh yeah but they are unsinkable like the titanic.
^ well that’s very true but in fairness the next guy has been paying an awful lot lately
Kinnikinnick lays it out PERFECTLY.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinnikinnick
There is a difference between price and value.
Currency is supposed to have value as a store of wealth and a medium of exchange. Too much inflation and they suck as stores of wealth. Too much deflation and they suck as mediums of exchange. Too much volatility and they suck at both. Crypto is a volatile/deflating at an extreme much worse than Zimbabwe's inflation. It has a price supported by speculation. Its utility for exchange is highest in oppressive monetarily unstable countries (Venezuela) or for illegal activities (money laundering). None of that bodes well for long term value/stability even without considering infinite substitution undermining perceived scarcity.
Agreed here... the entrance of institutions into the market and futures availability does suggest we are somewhere in the majority upswing... so the top is coming. But is it at 10% above current values? 100%? Unknown....Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
In the chart I put up, we are somewhere in the public/institutional range... so does another huge upswing await?
Per Minsky's 5 stage bubble theory,
https://www.investopedia.com/article...f-a-bubble.asp
We are somewhere between euphoria and profit taking...
The clue for me to not engage is that I can say "fuck I wish I bought BTC back at price X... but I'm super uncomfortable buying right now because at some point it goes to the floor." My strategy is always long term investment. I should probably short BTC... if there was an efficient vehicle for that, I'd do it.
Here's a coin anchored in euphoria....
https://www.camusomedia.com/client-s...abis-industry/
https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/...ges_bubble.png
Id say we are in the phase of "media attention".
Experienced hall of fame trader been banging in BTC for a long time. Lots of wisdom here.
@PeterLBrandt
Sure, maybe with money you don't care about losing or just go to the casino and put it all on Red????Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Pretty much. This isn't investing as much as rolling the bones.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Curious what makes you think so. Based on the shape of the curve and the fact that media attention should always be expected to continue through Despair (because the chart slope is interesting enough to report on) I'm thinking "media attention" marks the beginning of the media taking notice. If so, what's to argue we aren't crossing the Bull Trap?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless
That would be the other choice. Which would suck.
I want it to be the "Media Attention" phase and it kind of fits in there.
So you're a buyer or just feeling hopeful?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless
If we're on the way to a new paradigm, it does seem reasonable to recognize that scarcity of BTC means it hasn't come close to the value it would need to achieve a market cap necessary to provide adequate value to replace "money supply" for all the black money in the world plus some large fraction of those wishing to step around problems with particular fiats (China, Venezuela and ?). Either simply increasing the value of a coin that can be split into ever smaller pieces solves that, or Summit already provided the alternative and all non-physical currency will eventually revert to its inherent value.
Swissiphic needs to create a crypto engine to crank out more currencies according to some predefined formula so that we can have faith that replacements for FKNACoin will only appear at known intervals. This would be superior to BTC.
Your post is precisely what I was thinkingQuote:
Originally Posted by jono
I've got 6k in it. Hopeful I guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by jono
Would suck to lose 6k but that's gambling.
This plus dro's chart has me expecting another massive selloff soon. Thinking of taking my winnings and heading over to the steakhouse in this here casino instead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
Most of mine is on a Nano S and fairly inaccessible. Id miss any sell off and only be able to buy the dip.
Dont want to pay ST cap gains but cant see myself holding out long enough to get them LT.
I am still interested in making a gamble on a short position but am still not sure of a good way to do it
Sell to Beerdrinker?
So glad I'm not a rich douche.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless
What a lifestyle. [emoji40]
Yeah because being a poor douche is so much more Core. Brah.Quote:
Originally Posted by twodogs
Maybe when you're poor you actually have something to be douchey about? Just noodling hereQuote:
Originally Posted by Not bunion
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Funny you think 6k is a lot of money.Quote:
Originally Posted by twodogs
that's nothing.... .6k at the moment in this game is childs play. Watching the trade history on litecoin is amazing to watch.. consistent $30k trades and occasionally $100k and $200 to $300k trades.... and that was a 6 k..... now less... what a crazy drop just a while ago....Quote:
Originally Posted by twodogs
Thinking about it that could be 6k bitcoin n not 6 k worth... my bad then..... still going down wow
I do not have 6000 bitcoins. ($82,000,000.00)
Pity, it's not that much money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless
the stock market is not in a bubble. corp profits are strong and we may be at the end of a bull marketQuote:
Originally Posted by Not bunion
high risk equates to possible high rewardQuote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless
Lots of gambling going on.... just saw a group of buy orders go thru for about 500+ litecoin..... made me curious so I looked over at bitcoin n at the same time looks like the same people bought a 25 bitcoin order right at 14k..
pot stocks with interests in Cali and Canuckistan will continue to skyrocket next week as both go rec. throw some btc profit at some for a lil hedge.
How do you know if they are buy long or cover short (still buying I suppose)? Almost sounds like a pair trade.Quote:
Originally Posted by whitekingsalmon
Two dogs was referring to the six thousand you just traded for digital funny money.