Is the stock market going to tank?

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Isn't fraud and irregularity perfectly normal for Chinese business account Might be some good businesses in there but getting an accurate valuation will always be impossible.

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Well, yeah, for fucks sake, when the central committee actively engages in attempting to reinflate an obviously bubbled stock market by any means, and, through the state media, cheerleads such a awful scheme, then where does the corruption end. The elites are sucking the fictional real estate equity from the little schmuck by even allowing those empty condos to be used for leverage in the stock market. This is what happens when world media is censored, and those poor people didn't even have a chance to learn from our stupidity just ten and twenty years ago.

I read that 900 issues on the Shanghai exchange have suspended trading.

I guess no one gets out now.

Nikkei and US stock futures fell hard after the Hang Seng called 600 points lower. The connection hasn't been that direct in a while. Almost make or break for China stocks the next few days. Gold and oil resuming the sell off too.

Edit: HSI opened down 1200 points -4.5%.

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Originally Posted by Cono Este

I read that 900 issues on the Shanghai exchange have suspended trading.

I guess no one gets out now.

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About 25% of all shares are frozen for trading, mostly small companies.

Looking at opening down 7% in China. PBOC supporting liquidity. 1400 names suspended.

"Stop, make it go away"

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

About 25% of all shares are frozen for trading, mostly small companies.

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Frozen for what? Not high enough?

That is fucking hilarious! are there no rules?

Ha ha ha, can't wait to see where the mkt orders get filled, no, actually wish I was there doing it.

+27% in the next 12 months?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-sees-27-rally

Well, it's Goldman. They probably view China as Muppet heaven. They making money either way, I'll bet.

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Originally Posted by Cono Este

are there no rules?

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Oh, there are rules. There's one set of rules for the elites, and another for the schmoes. Like here.

ASHR FXI trade puts but their spreads are huge. Out of the money long-dated puts on those things are so rich. Oh why oh why are Gwai Lo prohibited from shorting China stocks. What a missed opportunity

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Well, it's Goldman. They probably view China as Muppet heaven. They making money either way, I'll bet.

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So going back to our exchange several months ago, it seems the top was just a classic blowoff. Remember we were looking for a catalyst? Interesting to watch. I was in Manila last fall and was offered half a dozen condos while trying to buy shoes and get dinner at the mall. I think the bubble there is more contained but there's no denying a serious housing correction is due.

The scale makes me wonder about how much APAC will end up being affected by this. U.S. demand resiliency will play a big factor in stabilizing the fall but it can capitulate.

Would be very surprised if Goldman isn't turning a 9 figure profit on the short side. Big thing is how well they cut the long side.

Nikkei is down 600 points. Almost 3%.

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

ASHR FXI trade puts but their spreads are huge. Out of the money long-dated puts on those things are so rich. Oh why oh why are Gwai Lo prohibited from shorting China stocks. What a missed opportunity

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New rules in force, only buying allowed.

AAPL at a three month low.

I guess we're testing the 200 day moving average in the sp 500.

I have not looked for yrs, but the best overall indicator I've ever found of bull vs bear is a cross in the 50/200 ma. About one of the only technical indicators that's hard to argue with, and I imagine it must be close.

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Originally Posted by Cono Este

I guess we're testing the 200 day moving average in the sp 500.

I have not looked for yrs, but the best overall indicator I've ever found of bull vs bear is a cross in the 50/200 ma. About one of the only technical indicators that's hard to argue with, and I imagine it must be close.

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Yes, but, I've observed opposite world the last few years. Anytime there is a clear technical sell signal the indexes reverse. I suspect the HFT bots are programmed to be contrary to traditional indicators.

FXI is under $40. It's a well defined risk at that level.

I would never use it as a trigger of anykind. Any moving avg can look different from one day to another. but if three months from now they were inverted, I'd use it as a general guide to selling vs buying and overall trend.

Right now it's a coin toss, but safe to say you can expect volatility.

Interesting day with the DAX higher and bonds flat. Fed minutes today. AA getting hammered ahead of earnings.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Yes, but, I've observed opposite world the last few years. Anytime there is a clear technical sell signal the indexes reverse. I suspect the HFT bots are programmed to be contrary to traditional indicators.

FXI is under $40. It's a well defined risk at that level.

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Funny I was linking at FXI as the best of the short China ETFs. Retracement to low 100s possible based on how Nasdaq collapsed following dotcom bubble. Which is the closest US comp I can find to a primarily retail drive stock bubble.

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

Funny I was linking at FXI as the best of the short China ETFs. Retracement to low 100s possible based on how Nasdaq collapsed following dotcom bubble. Which is the closest US comp I can find to a primarily retail drive stock bubble.

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Make that FXIs Proshare relative FXP the China short ETF

With trillions of dollars retail leveraged losses in China this decline reminds me of 1987 crash where the shear speed and momentum of the decline did not allow for margin liquidation before all equity was wiped out and deficit balance losses. It took almost ten years and a (gulf) war for US stocks to regain momentum. Car sales have cratered and real estate is being liquidated to pay losses in China. Let's hope China doesn't need a war to get out of this mess.

doh- all trading halted on NYSE

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Yes, but, I've observed opposite world the last few years. Anytime there is a clear technical sell signal the indexes reverse. I suspect the HFT bots are programmed to be contrary to traditional indicators.

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I've written it off and don't have much of a bone to pick but genuinely am curious how much the bots actively hunt stops. When I set stops even with a downside buffer below support they frequently get slapped right before a good reversal. Annoying and forces you to pay more attention or simply accept more risk, neither is very good for part time.

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Originally Posted by baby bear

doh- all trading halted on NYSE

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What is NYSE? It's just another ECN at this point.

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Originally Posted by baby bear

doh- all trading halted on NYSE

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Yet everything is still trading...a test to see if the NYSE is still relevant?