Below is the avalanche report for Tuckerman Ravine as of this morning. I've never heard of "downhill creep" before but after reading this report, it makes me very skeptical of skiing tomorrow, especially with potentially heavy rain coming in tonight.
Has anyone skied in conditions like this before? My gut is to head for the lower angle slopes tomorrow and to avoid the "creep" at all costs.
What say you?
7:42 a.m., Friday, March 26, 2004
Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines currently have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Unstable slabs are possible on steep slopes. Use caution in steeper terrain. The exceptions to this are the Escape Hatch and Pinnacle gully in Huntington Ravine. These two areas have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.
The summit of Mount Washington has a current temperature of 2C (35F) with W winds at 48kph (30mph). Over the past 24 hours they picked up .25mm of water
WARNING
ICE FALL DANGER
MASSIVE BLOCKS OF ICE THE
SIZE OF AUTOMOBILES
TRAVEL AT HIGH SPEEDS,
HIT ROCKS, AND SEND DEADLY
SHRAPNEL IN ALL DIRECTIONS
———————————
BE ALERT - BE AWARE
BE ICE SMART
WHITE MOUNTAIN National Forest
equivalent which fell in the form of freezing rain, ice pellets, and snow. Here at Hermit Lake we have a temperature of 6C (43F) and received 2.4mm of rain since yesterday morning. Temperatures have been above freezing for almost 48 hours with the exception of a brief drop below 0C (32F) last night. We have an intresting wet snow avalanche problem that we have been moving in and out of over the past 24 hours. The focus of concern today is the potential for natural avalanche activity. This issue will be a concern for at least the next 24 hours, but the timing will be critical for either increasing or subsiding instability. As rain and warm temperatures began yesterday they influenced the realtively dry slabs from earlier in the week increasing the avalanche danger. Hence the "Considerable" rating for many areas yesterday. As this occured the snowpack settled gradually due to slowly being effected by weather never receiving much more than a light shower late in the day. With limited visibility this morning it appears that no natural avalanche activity occurred. The avalanche danger rating has been lowered in many areas due to the weather forecast holding off on rain till this afternoon. As we progress through the day the warm snowpack will continue to melt continuing the downhill creep process. As we head into the afternoon we will have been above freezing for about 56 hours. Weather forecast models agree that rain showers should begin roughly during this 56th hour of melting which will increase instability once again. So put simply, we should see a very slow increase in instability through the morning hours as the snowpack melts perculating into lower layers forcing the downhill creep process. As the afternoon rain begins it will add load to this already straining creep encouraging instability. When exactly the rain begins, and how hard the intensity, will greatly influence how rapid the avalanche danger will rise. Expect the avalanche danger to rise back to "CONSIDERABLE" in many areas if rain comes in earlier or heavier than expected. 1.25cm (.5in) of rain is expected overnight, and as of this morning, are forecasted to linger into tomorrow morning.
By tomorrow morning 72 hours of above freezing temperatures will have occured. We will discuss Saturday's problems tomorrow morning, but be a bit weary if it is still raining at daybreak. However, the longer the snowpack sits slowly consolidating the greater the stress needed to cause a natural avalanche. By the morning my the greatest concern will be how long the new snow has been melting. We would all feel better if we saw some periods of freezing to lock up the snowpack a little.
FALLING ICE IS ANOTHER CONCERN AS WE CONTINUE THIS EXTENDED THAW PROCESS. Keep your eyes open for the potential of large blocks of water ice to fall down through the ravines. Many people have been hurt or killed by falling ice on Mount Washington. Have a plan in mind at all times what you will do if ice fall occurs.
The John Sherburne ski trail has heavy wet snow and drifts over mostly hard pack conditions. Expect rocks, turf, and water ice under the wet snow. Be prepared for these hidden hazards and sudden changes particularly on the lower half of the trail.
The Lion Head winter route is open. This is a steep and challenging route. Ice axe, crampons, and the skill to use them well are necessary for safe travel. Remember, it is always easier to go up than come down.
We will begin agressively updating our pictures on the website so you can monitor spring conditions. So check back often.
AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.
