Downhill Creep

[JMO]

Below is the avalanche report for Tuckerman Ravine as of this morning. I've never heard of "downhill creep" before but after reading this report, it makes me very skeptical of skiing tomorrow, especially with potentially heavy rain coming in tonight.

Has anyone skied in conditions like this before? My gut is to head for the lower angle slopes tomorrow and to avoid the "creep" at all costs.

What say you?

7:42 a.m., Friday, March 26, 2004


Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines currently have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Unstable slabs are possible on steep slopes. Use caution in steeper terrain. The exceptions to this are the Escape Hatch and Pinnacle gully in Huntington Ravine. These two areas have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.
The summit of Mount Washington has a current temperature of 2C (35F) with W winds at 48kph (30mph). Over the past 24 hours they picked up .25mm of water

WARNING
ICE FALL DANGER
MASSIVE BLOCKS OF ICE THE
SIZE OF AUTOMOBILES
TRAVEL AT HIGH SPEEDS,
HIT ROCKS, AND SEND DEADLY
SHRAPNEL IN ALL DIRECTIONS
———————————
BE ALERT - BE AWARE
BE ICE SMART

WHITE MOUNTAIN National Forest


equivalent which fell in the form of freezing rain, ice pellets, and snow. Here at Hermit Lake we have a temperature of 6C (43F) and received 2.4mm of rain since yesterday morning. Temperatures have been above freezing for almost 48 hours with the exception of a brief drop below 0C (32F) last night. We have an intresting wet snow avalanche problem that we have been moving in and out of over the past 24 hours. The focus of concern today is the potential for natural avalanche activity. This issue will be a concern for at least the next 24 hours, but the timing will be critical for either increasing or subsiding instability. As rain and warm temperatures began yesterday they influenced the realtively dry slabs from earlier in the week increasing the avalanche danger. Hence the "Considerable" rating for many areas yesterday. As this occured the snowpack settled gradually due to slowly being effected by weather never receiving much more than a light shower late in the day. With limited visibility this morning it appears that no natural avalanche activity occurred. The avalanche danger rating has been lowered in many areas due to the weather forecast holding off on rain till this afternoon. As we progress through the day the warm snowpack will continue to melt continuing the downhill creep process. As we head into the afternoon we will have been above freezing for about 56 hours. Weather forecast models agree that rain showers should begin roughly during this 56th hour of melting which will increase instability once again. So put simply, we should see a very slow increase in instability through the morning hours as the snowpack melts perculating into lower layers forcing the downhill creep process. As the afternoon rain begins it will add load to this already straining creep encouraging instability. When exactly the rain begins, and how hard the intensity, will greatly influence how rapid the avalanche danger will rise. Expect the avalanche danger to rise back to "CONSIDERABLE" in many areas if rain comes in earlier or heavier than expected. 1.25cm (.5in) of rain is expected overnight, and as of this morning, are forecasted to linger into tomorrow morning.

By tomorrow morning 72 hours of above freezing temperatures will have occured. We will discuss Saturday's problems tomorrow morning, but be a bit weary if it is still raining at daybreak. However, the longer the snowpack sits slowly consolidating the greater the stress needed to cause a natural avalanche. By the morning my the greatest concern will be how long the new snow has been melting. We would all feel better if we saw some periods of freezing to lock up the snowpack a little.

FALLING ICE IS ANOTHER CONCERN AS WE CONTINUE THIS EXTENDED THAW PROCESS. Keep your eyes open for the potential of large blocks of water ice to fall down through the ravines. Many people have been hurt or killed by falling ice on Mount Washington. Have a plan in mind at all times what you will do if ice fall occurs.

The John Sherburne ski trail has heavy wet snow and drifts over mostly hard pack conditions. Expect rocks, turf, and water ice under the wet snow. Be prepared for these hidden hazards and sudden changes particularly on the lower half of the trail.

The Lion Head winter route is open. This is a steep and challenging route. Ice axe, crampons, and the skill to use them well are necessary for safe travel. Remember, it is always easier to go up than come down.

We will begin agressively updating our pictures on the website so you can monitor spring conditions. So check back often.

AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

[bad_roo]

Managing that area must be one humungous headache.

[truth]

Originally posted by bad_roo
Managing that area must be one humungous headache.

And all this time I thought you were the downhill creep.

[bad_roo]

That from the downhill weirdo.

[truth]

I fart in your general direction.

[bad_roo]

MASSIVE BLOCKS OF ICE THE SIZE OF AUTOMOBILES TRAVEL AT HIGH SPEEDS, HIT ROCKS, AND SEND DEADLY SHRAPNEL IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

These things should be legislated against. So should Truth's ass.

[JMO]

This is my favorite part - "Have a plan in mind at all times what you will do if ice fall occurs "

RUN AWAY!

[truth]

Originally posted by JMO
This is my favorite part - "Have a plan in mind at all times what you will do if ice fall occurs "

RUN AWAY!

No, no, no...ya got it all wrong...

http://www.thirdav.com/hd_discog/img/12_dac.jpg

[bad_roo]

Originally posted by JMO
The Lion Head winter route is open. This is a steep and challenging route. Trotsky Ice Pick, crampons, and the skill to use them well are necessary for safe travel. Remember, it is always easier to shoot up than come down.

[truth]

Originally posted by bad_roo
I've always prefered shooting up to coming down.

Well said.

[bad_roo]

So you agree. Anastasia IS a man.

[truth]

The man knows, the man knows.

[iceman]

Downhill creep: Chad Fleischer

[LCC]

I'd probably ski it with that report, however, don't really know eastern snowpack all that well.

How is this:

"Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines currently have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Unstable slabs are possible on steep slopes. Use caution in steeper terrain."

Considered moderate? Sounds pretty low to me.

Downhill Creep is where the snow pulls downhill due to the force of gravity. The snow on the surface moves a little faster than the snow near the ground. This is a very, very snow process, and you really probably wouldn't notice it if somebody didn't point it out to you. A really good example of creep is when snow slowly pulls off the hood of a car, or the roof of a house but stays intact (doesn't break apart) and kind of curls up, just to the side while still attached. Very common in the warmer months, I'm sure there are some pictures around here someplace.

[el_jefe]

Originally posted by JMO
RUN AWAY!

http://www.intriguing.com/mp/_pictur...l/rabbitat.jpg

[iceman]

Originally posted by LCC
This is a very, very snow process

No kidding.

[bad_roo]

Snow. Very common in the warmer months.

[JMO]

Originally posted by LCC
I'd probably ski it with that report, however, don't really know eastern snowpack all that well.

Thanks, man. Looks like conditions will change a bit over the next 24 hours. Heavy rains are expected tonight which could wash out the run out/skin track and expose a huge ice bulge in the middle of one of the gullies. Figures.

I said "bulge."

[PaSucks]

God I love friday...

[phUnk]

WARNING
ICE FALL DANGER
MASSIVE BLOCKS OF ICE THE
SIZE OF AUTOMOBILES
TRAVEL AT HIGH SPEEDS,
HIT ROCKS, AND SEND DEADLY
SHRAPNEL IN ALL DIRECTIONS

That's French for "Go ride your bike you crazy retard."

[truth]

Originally posted by phUnk
That's French for "Go ride your bike you crazy retard."

How do you say, "My bike is too small cause I stole it out of some midgets garage."?

[grrrr]

Originally posted by bad_roo
Snow. Very common in the warmer months.

Warmer months <-- so hot right now.