Excuse me sir, have you seen my El Nino? I seem to have misplaced it.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST THREE TO FOUR GFS ENSEMBLE
MODEL RUNS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 500MB ANOMALIES HAVE BEGUN TO LOOK
VERY OMINOUS. THE PATTERN FOR DAY 10 THROUGH 14 IS SETTING UP FOR
WHAT MAYBE A POTENTIAL FLOOD SITUATION. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
140W IS FORECAST TO FURTHER RETROGRADE INTO THE BERING SEA. THE
UPPER LOW JUST NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND THE WESTERLIES DROP UNDER THIS RIDGE
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW NW OF HAWAII. THE PATTERN EVOLVES BY THE
WEEKEND OF JAN 8 TO A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM HAWAII INTO
CALIFORNIA. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE CURRENT VERY COLD PATTERN
WITH DEEP GULF OF ALASKA LOWS DROPPING OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA TO
EVOLVE INTO THE ABOVE SCENARIO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
COMPARISONS TO PAST HISTORICAL CASES BUT THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. THE GROUND WILL BE VERY SATURATED AND VERY LOW
ELEVATION SNOWS WILL EXIST IN THE SIERRA FROM THE STORMS OF THE NEXT
5 DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THIS THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION...WHICH HAS
BEEN NON-EXISTENT SINCE MID OCTOBER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE.
CONVECTION NEAR 120E IS INDICATIVE OF ITS RESURGENCE. IT IS ALSO TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHETHER THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A FULL BLOWN MJO OR IS
SIMPLY A KELVIN TYPE WAVE ENHANCING THE TROPICAL CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA. SHOULD THE MJO BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS WOULD PROVIDE MORE
CREDENCE TO A POTENTIAL VERY WET PATTERN IN THE 10 DAY TIME FRAME.