Hurricane 2024

[neufox47]

http://ocgweb.marine.usf.edu/Posters/TBHurricane.pdf

Cat 2 and 4 storm surge modeling for a direct hit on Tampa Bay.


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[The SnowShow]

Shit, I designed a 1 story building that’s currently going up in St Pete’s and is in the flood zone. Wonder how that’s going to fare

[Bunion 2020]

Going to hear Carl Hiassen speak on Thursday.

Mainly he is talking about fishing but Hurricanes ravaging Florida Man may come up.

[Norseman]

Milton lookin ready to beat some ass. Min pressure 940 mb with cat 4 winds, per today's 0800 update.

[2FUNKY]

Milton lookin ready to beat some ass. Min pressure 940 mb with cat 4 winds, per today's 0800 update.

My girls are right in it’s path. Hopefully there is enough land in between them that it won’t be very bad when it’s hits them.


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[bodywhomper]

https://x.com/chrishushnbc/status/18...Mbjk5ElmdWLRnQ

There was a GFS run yesterday that showed another TC out of the western gulf following Milton. It had a path that crossed FL and cruised up the eastern seaboard. Hopefully, it’s just fantasy

[skiHOG]

Now at 914mb. Hurricane hunter observed surface level winds of 177 knots. That's almost exactly the same as Irma.

[frorider]

Damn.

FIL moved to Florida last yr, inland from Tampa & no flood risk but I think he’s thinking of moving back West after this one.

[The SnowShow]

CAT 5 with sustained winds at 175 and gusts to 200. 911mb.
As one forecaster put it, it’s approaching “the pinnacle of weather power” [emoji51]

[muted reborn]

I land in Miami Thursday, anyone know a good cubano shop that doesn't flood easily and has a back up generator?

[The AD]

I have a feeling this is going to be really bad. The Tampa Bay area is likely to get pummeled.

[Mazderati]

Is warthog in Tampa Bay? Stay safe, mang.

[frorider]

DeSantis reportedly refused to talk to the vice president about hurricane relief in his state less than a week after Hurricane Helene pummeled the area and while another powerful storm, Hurricane Milton, will likely make landfall later this week. “Kamala was trying to reach out, and we didn’t answer,” a DeSantis aide told NBC News

Sigh.

[The SnowShow]

Scary as shit:

Dropped 91mb in 24 hours. 4th strongest in the Atlantic Basin, cloud tops at 60,000’. Sustained winds of 180 with gusts to 225.

[spanky]

While the intensity is forecast to drop before landfall, I think the surge is going to be way higher than forecast. This storm is essentially pushing the gulf into the west coast for 3+ days. That’s 3 days of continuous amplification of storm surge.

My mom lives on a canal in Port Charlotte in a “red” evacuation zone. She evacuated with her husband to Ft Lauderdale. I really hope they will have a home to return to.

[The SnowShow]

While the intensity is forecast to drop before landfall, I think the surge is going to be way higher than forecast. This storm is essentially pushing the gulf into the west coast for 3+ days. That’s 3 days of continuous amplification of storm surge.

My mom lives on a canal in Port Charlotte in a “red” evacuation zone. She evacuated with her husband to Ft Lauderdale. I really hope they will have a home to return to.

Wow, hope so.

[Norseman]

My girls are right in it’s path. Hopefully there is enough land in between them that it won’t be very bad when it’s hits them.

Orlando, iirc? Probably fine, maybe some post-storm bullshit and sadness with such proximity to the crushed western bays.

I have a feeling this is going to be really bad. The Tampa Bay area is likely to get pummeled.

Agreed. Bad vibes on this one. 15 foot storm surge funneled right up Tampa's ass.


red on this map is 9ft+ ...

[spanky]

red on this map is 9ft+ ...

9 ft+ above ground! Not above sea level.

[Norseman]

yep

yo warthog, hope you are getting the hell outta there

[easyrdr]

Just spent 5 days in Orlando, got home Monday night. Saw this one coming and changed our flights to leave 2 days earlier. What amazed me was how many locals were totally unaware or nonchalant about the storm. The track had it going straight through there. Yes I know it’s inland but still. Scary. Vibes to all affected, stay safe.

[From_the_NEK]

While the intensity is forecast to drop before landfall, I think the surge is going to be way higher than forecast. This storm is essentially pushing the gulf into the west coast for 3+ days. That’s 3 days of continuous amplification of storm surge.

My mom lives on a canal in Port Charlotte in a “red” evacuation zone. She evacuated with her husband to Ft Lauderdale. I really hope they will have a home to return to.

Yeah, my in-law side of the family (MIL, and her bros.) have places spread between Englewood and the general area around the Rotunda. The UIL that is in Englewood is right on the inland waterway and his likely fucked. My MIL is in a house on an inland canal system that was built up just high enough to stay above the storm surge from Ian in 2022. The water surface level in the canal is something like 4-5' ASL. If the 9+' of surge does go through there, they may have a lot of cleanup. Milton's forecast certainly looks like it may be worse than Ian for my MIL as her place will be near the eye wall quadrant that will be pushing water onshore. We convinced them all to head to SE (miami-ish) FL to at least get themselves out of the bullseye.

[spanky]

Good to hear they evacuated. My aunt and uncle in Venice (zone c) left for the east coast. Another aunt lives in Osprey (zone a) and is staying. She’s on the second level in a concrete building, but is literally spitting distance to the boats in the marina.

This was the surge at mom’s for Helene…

[warthog]

Checking in from Jax. House was already a disaster with floors removed to slab, and 2 ft of wall removed throughout. Hoping to return to that level of disaster, and not more. Electrical, cabinets, furniture, etc were spared on the first round. Left my Jeep on the 2nd story offsite parking garage at the airport, snuggled close to the elevators and covered.


Wife's car already has a claim on it, so we left it. Company car was towed away already. Drove the Bronco and rental Silverado (total lifesaver) to Jax with 2 full tanks and 15 gallons extra in the back of the pickup. Hoping for the best, but wishing it wouldn't hit anything. Happy Halloween kids.

[Rideski]

Just kidding. Good luck out there.

[Buzzworthy]

That’s devastating to read warthog. I’m very sorry for the upended world you are going through.