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[bodywhomper]

Wtf does “10 avalanche prone pow days per year” mean?

[P.A.B.C.]

Wtf does “10 avalanche prone pow days per year” mean?

Days like Palisades on Thursday, days where the inbounds avalanche danger is higher than normal, pow days etc.

If you go ahead and suppose that these resorts have 20 days a year (instead of 10) where the avalanche risk is higher than average and might make you consider wearing a beacon, then the probability of dying in an inbounds avalanche would drop by 50%, to one in a million per run taken.

[powdrhound]

Wtf does “10 avalanche prone pow days per year” mean?

I don’t get enough powder days. To get 10 days deep and fresh enough to slide - I would consider it a fine season.

[bodywhomper]

Days like Palisades on Thursday, days where the inbounds avalanche danger is higher than normal, pow days etc.

If you go ahead and suppose that these resorts have 20 days a year (instead of 10) where the avalanche risk is higher than average and might make you consider wearing a beacon, then the probability of dying in an inbounds avalanche would drop by 50%, to one in a million per run taken.

The fatal avalanche happened on Wednesday before the new storm really started rolling in. There was a wind event and (apparently) lurking persistent buried instabilities in the snowpack at the hill. There are several persistent problems in the backcountry in a variable manner. Those persistent instabilities can lurk for an extended period of time.

I think there are flaws in your argument, understanding of avalanche hazards, and understanding of what various ski areas do to substantially reduce the risk so that we can have fun skiing in avalanche with minimal risk of an avalanche.

Maybe I’m getting it wrong or misunderstanding something….

…….
The big SnoMo slide obs on SAC from the 11th, anybody see/know details about max slope angle? The broken up slabs in the pictures look low angle.

[Bunion 2020]

I recall Liam (I think) relating a story of opening terrain for the first time in the season while watching from a safe distance with an avalanche dog.

Inbound avalanche fatalities happen, but compared to the amount of people skiing avalanche terrain inbounds, the chance of it happening to you is insubstantial. Ski resorts in the US do a great job mitigating risk, but as other people have mentioned, you can't completely control nature.

Aside from all the numbers and statistics (which are probably not that far off) the point made is a good one.

Thank your Ski Patrols.

[TahoeJ]

Wow, they’re really trying to get word out about how sketchy the snowpack is going to be this weekend. My ring camera app just sent out an advisory alert for the greater Tahoe area. That’s a first.

[SnowMachine]

Are you new here? They don’t give a fuck about locals, they know where their bread is buttered. Pressure = financial incentive.

(Yes, patrol and mountain ops want to open stuff because they’re real skiers/riders, but that’s aside from the point)

I've been here my whole life and work for Palisades. There's infinite pressure to get terrain open, particularly KT. Marketing is a real thing and this weekend is a holiday.

Either way, I trust Alterra management. If they thought there was a chance of a slide it wouldn't have opened. The flip of that was needing to get skiers on that slope at some point. I'm sure there were a lot of conversations between patrol and management about how and when to get it open.

[SnowMachine]

Of course. Reference my earlier post where I pointed out it was a Wednesday, well before the holiday weekend. For the bean counters they could have just as easily promoted that KT will be open this weekend - if anything holding back on the opening would increase interest / demand.

They were definitely promoting the opening. I think the whole plan was to get it open and skied before this weekend.

Look, none of this really matters. In reality, I think there was a collective plan to get it open between management and patrol. If there was any question it would not have opened. The snowpack this year is really tough and patrol does gods work every AM to mitigate danger as best as possible. Shit happens and if we learn nothing from these events, then we're doomed to repeat. If more people adopt beacon wearing and learn to use them, then I view this as a net positive.

Lot's of people out skiing KT yesterday. I left it alone for the day. Not sure why, but I just didn't feel like going up there.

[SnowMachine]

My motto is moguls from the dirt up, let no snowflake lay undisturbed.
When I started practicing this mentality we thought that we might see an increase in head injuries, etc. cuz of opening with such low tide.
Knock on wood, that is not the case though definitely an increase in lacs.
When you have moguls from the ground up you are mostly dealing with new snow avys, not deep instability.
If you build a deep snowpack without skiing it from the dirt up, you bridge the weak layer.
Now yer huntin the beast, deep slab.
And ya gotta do it basically every time more water weight is added until it slides or stablizes with time and insulation on the buried weakness.
Skier compaction just makes a harder slab above the buried weakness.
And herein lies a problem.
Initial testing weakens the slope if it doesn't avalanche.
I wait at least 24 hrs after hunting the beast before opening that terrain.
This is not a researched industry standard, just my own thinking.
Those explosives actually help anchor the slope when they freeze overnight forming columns of strength.
Have no idea the mitigation performed in this tragedy and when, just passing on how I personally dealt with deep slab.
And as Bunion said above, the majority of in area avalanche fatalities are deep slab upon opening terrain for the first time that winter.
Can't tell you how many times I crossed my fingers opening up big terrain for the first time when it wasn't possible to make moguls from the ground up.
I should add that we suffered a similar incident at Snowbird on my watch years ago; I've been in those shoes...

Thank you for the perspective.

I approach new openings the same way as I approach skiing in the back country and if people have been paying attention they would know that our snowpack isn't all that stable. That said.... it's a resort. You have to get skiers on it at some point. And it was just too bony on the bottom to put skiers on it early enough to beat that snow pack into the ground, up top.

[jackstraw]

Maybe we just say there are inherent dangers to skiing and anything can happen even with all the safety boxes checked. I've been around or in proximity to several ski related deaths, but not one involving an avalanche...luckily. Even my house was hit by an avi and thankfully it didn't collapse, just bent a little.

My guess is it's more dangerous to drive your car to the hill than actually skiing resort avi terrain.

[TahoeBC]

At least so far, it’s nice to see a storm move in without a fuck ton of wind

[powdork]

^i hear some very smart people say it is still to come

[powdork]

…….
The big SnoMo slide obs on SAC from the 11th, anybody see/know details about max slope angle? The broken up slabs in the pictures look low angle.

The whole "Seven persistent slab avalanches were reported to occur yesterday, all of which were triggered by backcountry travelers moving through low angle non-avalanche terrain adjacent to steeper avalanche terrain. " with only two actual reports in the Obs bothered me. How was that picture there without any report?

[Bunion 2020]

There's infinite pressure to get terrain open, particularly KT. Marketing is a real thing and this weekend is a holiday.

I'm so glad I retired. In my experiences if Marketing tried to pressure me I ignored them. If GMs asked I gave them an honest answer, that terrain would open when it was as safe as we could make it and that included both snow coverage and avalanche hazard. Like TFW I was much less interested in worrying about thin coverage, if we could get an inured skier down and out we would open it.

As the mega resorts have been created such mindsets are no longer acceptable at those "resorts", and if a PD or SS Dir. wants to keep their job at those places telling Marketing to fuck off probably isn't wise. I enjoyed it quite a bit.

Is E. Knudsen still at Pali?

[powdork]

The big SnoMo slide obs on SAC from the 11th, anybody see/know details about max slope angle? The broken up slabs in the pictures look low angle.

Looks like they made a report with Snowbrains, instead of SAC.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C2A3I94OMqy/

[yeahman]

Maybe we just say there are inherent dangers to skiing and anything can happen even with all the safety boxes checked. I've been around or in proximity to several ski related deaths, but not one involving an avalanche...luckily. Even my house was hit by an avi and thankfully it didn't collapse, just bent a little.

My guess is it's more dangerous to drive your car to the hill than actually skiing resort avi terrain.

Yeah, that's why you wear your seatbelt and have airbags and anti-lock brakes and snow tires and a host of other safety equipment--to avoid an accident, and be prepared in case something happens on a snowy, cold winter road.

I feel like I'm skiing avalanche terrain all day every day on Lone Peak, fresh snow or not. In my mind it would be foolish to be up there without being prepared for a slide. Lots of people do it, I know, and they get away with it their whole lives, and I probably could to. I just like knowing that if anything does happen, I'm able to offer legitimate assistance. People can be really spread out up there with nobody else in sight except maybe one or two others. It feels like a real alpine environment to me, not to be underestimated at all.

[TahoeJ]

They were definitely promoting the opening. I think the whole plan was to get it open and skied before this weekend.

Look, none of this really matters. In reality, I think there was a collective plan to get it open between management and patrol. If there was any question it would not have opened. The snowpack this year is really tough and patrol does gods work every AM to mitigate danger as best as possible. Shit happens and if we learn nothing from these events, then we're doomed to repeat. If more people adopt beacon wearing and learn to use them, then I view this as a net positive.

Lot's of people out skiing KT yesterday. I left it alone for the day. Not sure why, but I just didn't feel like going up there.

You’re basically agreeing with me. I said there was no pressure to get it open on Wed vs Thursday. Getting it open for the weekend? Yeah absolutely. The marketing is not for the locals.

[mcski]

I've been here my whole life and work for Palisades. There's infinite pressure to get terrain open, particularly KT. Marketing is a real thing and this weekend is a holiday.

Either way, I trust Alterra management. If they thought there was a chance of a slide it wouldn't have opened. The flip of that was needing to get skiers on that slope at some point. I'm sure there were a lot of conversations between patrol and management about how and when to get it open.

Been in Tahoe your whole life? Your posts sure don’t give that impression

[Mikey Schaefer]

Looks like they made a report with Snowbrains, instead of SAC.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C2A3I94OMqy/

There has been a report on SAC since at least yesterday. Maybe you have filter on an not all of the reports are showing?



https://www.sierraavalanchecenter.or...22&season=2024

[LightRanger]

There has been a report on SAC since at least yesterday. Maybe you have filter on an not all of the reports are showing?



https://www.sierraavalanchecenter.or...22&season=2024

Here's a video.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C1_Cz...RlODBiNWFlZA==

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[bodywhomper]

There has been a report on SAC since at least yesterday. Maybe you have filter on an not all of the reports are showing?



https://www.sierraavalanchecenter.or...22&season=2024

Thanks for posting here.

I saw the report on SAC. I was more curious about slope angles (the mount Lola incident, too). I understand they were “public” reports. For the snomo incident photos, I see steeper areas that could be start zones when I look more closely at a few photos. I also see big cohesive slabs and blocks on low angle terrain. It made me wonder about the alpha angle. All pretty remarkable.

[mmmm...pow!]

KT opened when they were able to open it. Basically as soon as they can put in the road. Same as every year.

Lot's of people out skiing KT yesterday. I left it alone for the day. Not sure why, but I just didn't feel like going up there.

Thank you for your service. Can't remember KT ever being so good with no line all day long when it wasn't dumping.

[old goat]

Yeah, that's why you wear your seatbelt and have airbags and anti-lock brakes and snow tires and a host of other safety equipment--to avoid an accident, and be prepared in case something happens on a snowy, cold winter road.

I feel like I'm skiing avalanche terrain all day every day on Lone Peak, fresh snow or not. In my mind it would be foolish to be up there without being prepared for a slide. Lots of people do it, I know, and they get away with it their whole lives, and I probably could to. I just like knowing that if anything does happen, I'm able to offer legitimate assistance. People can be really spread out up there with nobody else in sight except maybe one or two others. It feels like a real alpine environment to me, not to be underestimated at all.

We skied Big Couloir a day after some snow--not a lot. When we tried to ski it 4 days later, after no more snow it was closed due to avalanche risk, from wind loading. Enough wind to keep two of the back side lifts closed for most of the week.

Regarding avy risk first day open--of the 9 or so post control slides I can recall --fatal and otherwise, incuding a few that never made the news--this week's KT slide is the first that was on newly open terrain. They all occured during or immediately after significant snowfall. Maybe the difference is Sierra vs Rockies snowpack?

[powdork]

There has been a report on SAC since at least yesterday. Maybe you have filter on an not all of the reports are showing?



https://www.sierraavalanchecenter.or...22&season=2024

Maybe they went up later than I looked. I went straight from the forecast to the obs page after reading about the seven reported avalanches but there were only two (there were 4 but the Carpenter ridge and snowmass peak didn't really count). I was looking for that one specifically because it mentioned 7,900' in the pic on the forecast page and we were keeping it at low elevations so that one interested me. Now there are 10 obs with avalanches from the day so that could be the reason for the slight delay

[powdork]

also, I was incorrect that it was the snowbrains one. They were very similar and very close to each other but this is the one I was talking about
https://www.sierraavalanchecenter.or...a-352bce3a7760