Wildfire 2023

[bodywhomper]

It’s fucking nuts. What’s the wildfire hazard in the midst of the concrete jungles of the LA basin?

My bet is that it’s mostly about the reinsurance market, State Farm taking broad brush action to reduce risk as a stipulation of the reinsurance folks (this is what’s been occurring for over a decade, but State Farm’s action is the most severe), and the slowness of the state to get boots on the ground and get shit done (and better coordinate with the reinsurance industry to mitigate risk of existing building stock).

I’m always optimistically hoping that something like this will be the tipping point for the state to take more action and get their shit together.

[TBS]

What’s the housing inventory in Death Valley like?

Seriously, I don’t think places along the north coast in Humboldt and Del Norte counties have the same risk as the rest of the state
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Along the coast, sure, but go 20 miles inland and fire risk is quite high. And yes I know that most people live in that 20 mile strip

It’s fucking nuts. What’s the wildfire hazard in the midst of the concrete jungles of the LA basin?

Hutash would likely tell you it’s pretty high, since his neighborhood (within sight of ocean) burned to the ground in just a few hours.

And the folks in Pasadena might disagree about the Bobcat fire…

Not to mention all the fires that pop up in the foothills every fall when the Santa Anas kick up

[bodywhomper]

Hutash would likely tell you it’s pretty high, since his neighborhood (within sight of ocean) burned to the ground in just a few hours.

And the folks in Pasadena might disagree about the Bobcat fire…

Not to mention all the fires that pop up in the foothills every fall when the Santa Anas kick up

Those (Hutash zone, Pasadena area, foothills, etc.) are all clearly in the WUI. I’m talking about the middle of the bigger cities. Strip malls, apt building, condos, barely any landscaping, etc. There are entire zip codes like that.

What’s interesting, though, is State Farm’s claim to maintain existing policies.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Along the coast, sure, but go 20 miles inland and fire risk is quite high. And yes I know that most people live in that 20 mile strip



Hutash would likely tell you it’s pretty high, since his neighborhood (within sight of ocean) burned to the ground in just a few hours.

And the folks in Pasadena might disagree about the Bobcat fire…

Not to mention all the fires that pop up in the foothills every fall when the Santa Anas kick up

Yeah I know, I lived in coastal CA for 15 years. Most people that live in CA aren’t in danger of having their houses burn in a wildfire.


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[gravitylover]

What the fuck? Yo Canada, take your fuckin smoke and go home would ya! This is insane, I'm about 2mi vis right now and it tastes like scorched sap from the fires in Nova Scotia. This sux

[bennymac]

at least put some maple flavoring in so it can be an enjoyable vape

[PB]

JFC you sniveling wankers, you could all be burning instead of just rubbing your tender eyes.

[gravitylover]

It was more sarcasm than whining It's highly unusual for us to see an event like what's happening, the wind direction is backwards and is concentrating the smoke into dense ribbons. I saw some pics of smoke snaking through urban streets taken through higher floor apartments, I remember similar pics when the paper bag factories in the Bronx were cranking away and the pre catalytic converter traffic was bad on dead-air summer days.

[bodywhomper]

Now no new home policies in California from Allstate.

[KQ]

National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook (Monthly-Seasonal) is normally posted on the first workday of each month and produced with input from all of the Geographic Area Predictive Service units using the most recent weather and fuels data available. The outlook identifies areas by month for the next four months with above, below, and near normal significant fire potential. The main objectives of the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks are to improve information available to fire management decision makers. These assessments are designed to inform decision makers for proactive wildland fire management, thus better protecting lives and property, reducing firefighting costs and improving firefighting efficiency.
Additional information is available at https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/predictive.htm

[AK47bp]

Not looking good at all. I live in Snoqualmie and grass is already brown, which doesn’t usually happen until mid July. 10 day forecast doesn’t have any precipitation. We could possibly hit the dry season in July with no or minimal rain. I honestly don’t think it’s rained since April (could be wrong).

[S_jenks]

Not looking good at all. I live in Snoqualmie and grass is already brown, which doesn’t usually happen until mid July. 10 day forecast doesn’t have any precipitation. We could possibly hit the dry season in July with no or minimal rain. I honestly don’t think it’s rained since April (could be wrong).

We just moved to the South South in mid-April and other than some rain those first two weeks it feels like the spigot just shut off. Reminds me of years past in MT when the rain simply stops at the end of June and fire season slowly creeps closer...

[evdog]

I'm surprised most of SoCal shows "normal" in Aug/Sept. Our huge rain year has led to massive brush growth which is steadily drying out. I'd think fire potential will be above normal. Not that "normal" is great either.

[gravitylover]

I hope that northern NY and New England doesn't realize the potential in those maps. The amount of fuel on the ground is staggering and with the Ash and Pine trees dying off there's a ton of standing fuel too. It's kinda fucked up but I'm sort of hoping for a few tropical storms or (minor) hurricanes to get some real moisture in here.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Not looking good at all. I live in Snoqualmie and grass is already brown, which doesn’t usually happen until mid July. 10 day forecast doesn’t have any precipitation. We could possibly hit the dry season in July with no or minimal rain. I honestly don’t think it’s rained since April (could be wrong).

It’s been an interesting spring. Usually the strong NW flow keeps us fair, dry and windy in April, May and into June but we’ve had a fair amount of easterly flow and that’s led to unusual spring thunderstorms. I don’t think we’ve had more than a week without some sort of rain. I can’t remember a spring like this in the 20 years that I’ve lived in Wenatchee.


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[cat in january]

I hope that northern NY and New England doesn't realize the potential in those maps. The amount of fuel on the ground is staggering and with the Ash and Pine trees dying off there's a ton of standing fuel too. It's kinda fucked up but I'm sort of hoping for a few tropical storms or (minor) hurricanes to get some real moisture in here.

Sure is unusual to see the northeast on the map. Bunch of Maine towns burned up back in 1947. Hopefully not a repeat. Yes there is a lot of fuel on the ground

[tellybele]

Speaking of fuel on the ground....worth checking out if you live in WA or are affected by fires in WA.

https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/rmr...edition-second

[Meadow Skipper]

I'm surprised most of SoCal shows "normal" in Aug/Sept. Our huge rain year has led to massive brush growth which is steadily drying out. I'd think fire potential will be above normal. Not that "normal" is great either.

Those maps are meteorological data only, they don’t take fuel loading (the amount of fuel) into account.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Anecdotally, grass/range fires seem to have a more transient effect in regards to smoke ime. I know that they have an impact on the local ecosystem but the impact doesn’t seem as bad as forest fires, even smaller ones. The Irving Pass/White River fires weren’t very large or particularly intense over here last year but basically shut down most outdoor recreation in the Wenatchee River watershed from mid August to early October.


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[bfree]

Not looking good at all. I live in Snoqualmie and grass is already brown, which doesn’t usually happen until mid July. 10 day forecast doesn’t have any precipitation. We could possibly hit the dry season in July with no or minimal rain. I honestly don’t think it’s rained since April (could be wrong).

https://www.northbendweather.com/wxraindetail.php

A few days, but still 3 inches below average. I think it didn't really feel like we had those days because many of them were a quick afternoon thunderstorm rather than our typical cool drizzly May days. Average temp was 5 degrees above normal.

[AK47bp]

https://www.northbendweather.com/wxraindetail.php

A few days, but still 3 inches below average. I think it didn't really feel like we had those days because many of them were a quick afternoon thunderstorm rather than our typical cool drizzly May days. Average temp was 5 degrees above normal.

Oh yes. May 5th was an overnight rain now that I remember, waking up wet patio furniture, that wasn’t in the forecast. Crazy that I can even recall a rain event living here when usually it the non rain days you remember.

Such a contrast to last year. I know of two families that moved out, one to AZ and the other to FL, last June broke them. Not very smart people.

[evdog]

Those maps are meteorological data only, they don’t take fuel loading (the amount of fuel) into account.

That's not what the website says

"National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook (Monthly-Seasonal) is normally posted on the first workday of each month and produced with input from all of the Geographic Area Predictive Service units using the most recent weather and fuels data available"

[Meadow Skipper]

That's not what the website says

"National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook (Monthly-Seasonal) is normally posted on the first workday of each month and produced with input from all of the Geographic Area Predictive Service units using the most recent weather and fuels data available"

That means predominate fuel type, and more importantly fuels moisture content, which generally gets measured daily, but fuel loading doesn’t get taken into account with the NIFC fire danger maps. I suppose that’s not meteorological is a certain sense, but it’s still a function of the weather - precip and atmospheric moisture.

http://www.wfas.net/index.php/fire-d...ial--danger-32

I used to work with this stuff, especially when I ran a geographic area predictive service.

[east or bust]

Interesting point, and makes sense, how a wet spring and dry summer/fall can impact fuel loading. I talked to someone briefly this morning who seemed to have lived in the area a decent amount of years and he said this is one of the wetter springs he can remember for the Teton Valley/JH area. Don’t know if that’s bs or not but there’s sure a ton of growth that has popped over the last few weeks. I think we’ve gotten some precip almost every day for the last 2-3 weeks.

If I understand correctly, in layman’s terms that map is saying there isn’t a dryer summer than average predicted for this area, so hopefully we’ll be ok.

While out for a ride the other day I couldn’t help but think how fragile the fine line is between burning and not burning. Under the right weather conditions - see Marshall fire - it’s pretty easy for it to happen. Honestly any year that Jackson doesn’t get fucked is a bit surprising given how many homes are built up in the forest and have no defensible space.


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[evdog]

Fuel loading would be a pretty useful to consider in a Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, you'd think.