To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[MultiVerse]

A FAQ: No vaccine is perfect. No vaccine is perfect; even the best will see post-vax infections at some rate. When there's a lot of virus around due to lower at large vax rates (like now), there's more of those events.

It's always been like this. Breakthrough cases of polio—including deaths—were common during early polio vaccination.

What kept us safe was not perfect vaccine efficacy. It was that Americans quickly & massively stepped up to get the imperfect vaccine, quashing transmission.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Thats fair.

If they're fat, they break a finger and test positive for Covid they get a bed.

The point that many are in the hospital "with covid as opposed to from covid" still stands

sure, ok. I guess I don't see that as being very problematic. I have a sister that is an organ transplant recipient. If she went in to have some proceedure or test done on her transplant and then figured out that she was covid positive, regardless of symptoms, they'd admit her to make sure it didn't fuck with the transplant or kick off some other issues. I don't see what your point is in such cases...are you saying they shouldn't be admitted? or that they shouldn't be counted for covid hospitalizations? They're literally only in the hospital because they have covid plus some other underlying issue that could be made worse by the virus.

[Mofro261]

A FAQ: No vaccine is perfect. No vaccine is perfect; even the best will see post-vax infections at some rate. When there's a lot of virus around due to lower at large vax rates (like now), there's more of those events.

It's always been like this. Breakthrough cases of polio—including deaths—were common during early polio vaccination.

What kept us safe was not perfect vaccine efficacy. It was that Americans quickly & massively stepped up to get the imperfect vaccine, quashing transmission.

Thanks for continuing to post up.

Visuals of this FAQ for the thinking impaired.

A guide to vaccinology: from basic principles to new developments

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00479-7

The introduction of vaccination against infectious diseases such as diphtheria (part a), capsular group C meningococcus (part b), polio (part c), Haemophilus influenzae type B (part d), measles (part e) and pertussis (part f) led to a marked decrease in their incidence. Of note, the increase in reports of H. influenzae type B in 2001 led to a catch-up vaccination campaign, after which the incidence reduced. For pertussis, a decline in vaccine coverage led to an increase in cases in the late 1970s and 1980s, but disease incidence reduced again after vaccine coverage increased. Adapted with permission from the Green Book, information for public health professionals on immunisation, Public Health England, contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

[Meathelmet]

sure, ok. I guess I don't see that as being very problematic. I have a sister that is an organ transplant recipient. If she went in to have some proceedure or test done on her transplant and then figured out that she was covid positive, regardless of symptoms, they'd admit her to make sure it didn't fuck with the transplant or kick off some other issues. I don't see what your point is in such cases...are you saying they shouldn't be admitted? or that they shouldn't be counted for covid hospitalizations? They're literally only in the hospital because they have covid plus some other underlying issue that could be made worse by the virus.

Around here (scandiland, pop.6mil) the health dep stats show that we are running -1200 cancer diagnostics this year, will rack up to -2000 by the end of the year. On top of that other ailments (heart etc) and the postponement of critical operations (organ transplants) will rack up. And add to that, the mental health crisis that is underfunded due to...you get it? No one knows what the final toll of excess deaths will be due to this (unnecessarily) prolonged episode. Guestimations vary but all are 5 to 10 times over the initial covid death numbers.

Great? No in my opinion.

Edit: corrected the "Around there" to "Around here", typo.

[mcski]

Thanks. It's really good to recognize the subtlety required for a genuine quality troll.

It is interesting that Jer came to his stoke defense very early in that thread. Subtle indeed. Lol

[CarlMega]

^you don't pick the pandemic, it picks you. Sorry this 'episode' is inconvenient. Personally, I think HC did a pretty amazing job given the circumstances: overcame a terrible wave, largely got back on track for all the required services, provided the world with several vaccines in record time and they are beyond dreams effective.

There is no way there is an excess 6mil deaths in the US. (~700K and as you assert 5 to 10 times the covid numbers?). GTFO. That mental health comment you tied in is unfounded.

[Meathelmet]

*stuff*
There is no way there is an excess 6mil deaths in the US. (~700K and as you assert 5 to 10 times the covid numbers?). GTFO. That mental health comment you tied in is unfounded.

You are prolly replying to me?

My typo with "there" instead of "here" might have confused you. And just to be clear, the number "5-10 times" referred to the potential excess deaths including the missed cancer cases, untreated ailments (heart etc) and postponed life saving operations & lack of proper intensive care. As around here we have about 1100 deaths (verified directly due covid) the 5-10 times would rack up to 5-10k of excess deaths, not to count mental health issues. Just to clarify.

The statistics regarding larger trends in mortality will reveal the final toll, but that is for later analysis.

[mtuhockey33]

^you don't pick the pandemic, it picks you. Sorry this 'episode' is inconvenient. Personally, I think HC did a pretty amazing job given the circumstances: overcame a terrible wave, largely got back on track for all the required services, provided the world with several vaccines in record time and they are beyond dreams effective.

There is no way there is an excess 6mil deaths in the US. (~700K and as you assert 5 to 10 times the covid numbers?). GTFO. That mental health comment you tied in is unfounded.

hey man, only the “good Healthcare workers” did their job! Fuck all the ones who don’t want the vaccine now; amirite??

you’re an idiot if you think mental health hasn’t gone down the shitter since Covid. This guys just saying we don’t know the true number of excess deaths due to Covid. Which is 100% true. But keep on your high horse Cunt Mega.

[CarlMega]

As around here we have about 1100 deaths (verified directly due covid) the 5-10 times would rack up to 5-10k of excess deaths, not to count mental health issues.

Where is 'around here'? I'll leave it as I am extremely suspicious of that projection. Suspect to the point of it being unbelievable - extrapolating it to world/scale would result in unignorably high numbers. Feel free to cite these 'Guestimations '.

Edit: Since I walked in on you guys mid conversation without reading the prior backNforth... I'm assuming you are implying that the pandemic measures/interruption has resulted in non-covid disease deaths (excess deaths) that are 5-10X the actual covid disease deaths.

[CarlMega]

Hi, I"M A MORAN.

Dude, you are so stupid. Keep going. My question for you is: who dresses you in the morning?

[Bunion 2020]

you’re an idiot if you think mental health hasn’t gone down the shitter since Covid.

You being a prime example?

[dunfree]

You being a prime example?

It’d be interesting to see a breakdown on party lines. AFAICR suicides were actually down.

[mtuhockey33]

Dude, you are so stupid. Keep going. My question for you is: who dresses you in the morning?

your mom does after she’s done sucking my dick and giving you your good morning kiss

[Meathelmet]

Where is 'around here'? I'll leave it as I am extremely suspicious of that projection. Suspect to the point of it being unbelievable - extrapolating it to world/scale would result in unignorably high numbers. Feel free to cite these 'Guestimations '.

N & NE Scandhoovia. The "guestimations" are from the local NHS, Uni scientists etc talking in press conferences, local news et al.
Transliterations for you would be as useful as...well...

Carry on.

[CarlMega]

your mom does after she’s done sucking my dick and giving you your good morning kiss

ha. no way a limp dick like you has the energy for my tiger-mom.

Hold it. You think the rest of us still live with our parents? You do don't you? You actually haven't adulted yet.

[Mazderati]

It looks to me like Meathelmet is just describing the inevitable delay of diagnoses. No clue about any specific magnitude but that opportunity bias is real.

[jono]

You being a prime example?

If 16% of infected get lasting COVID-brain and 100% of anti-vaxers burrow deeper into paranoid denial and anger, that really is a pretty big mental health crisis.

[Mazderati]

If 16% of infected get lasting COVID-brain and 100% of anti-vaxers burrow deeper into paranoid denial and anger, that really is a pretty big mental health crisis.

That's the catch. The stupid/duped/whatever are killing themselves but there will be a contingent that survive and become even more stupid/gullible/whatever.

[ex-powderbroker]

The Lancet study said suicides were either flat or down:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...091-2/fulltext

But yeah I am sure that the people that looked at this just changed the underlying data to present 1/10 the actual suicide rate.

[Meathelmet]

It looks to me like Meathelmet is just describing the inevitable delay of diagnoses. No clue about any specific magnitude but that opportunity bias is real.

This. And to give an extended elaboration on the analysis of health care people, the -2000 undiagnosed cancers are not going to correlate vis-a-vis with 2000 cancer deaths. But, (accordingly to *them*) the stress on the HC is going to continue for couple of years before our HC system can get back on track, things will add up...especially as the unvaxxed are affecting detrimentally the health care system. As long as the system is affected by extra stressors, the system is not working as well as it should.

[CarlMega]

It looks to me like Meathelmet is just describing the inevitable delay of diagnoses. No clue about any specific magnitude but that opportunity bias is real.

It's a legitimate concern and effect - no question. Covid measures certainly have impact and there will be collateral deaths not from disease.

But, without citations or (better) the model used for that forecast - it feels flimsy. Maybe it has some merit in a very precise, local context. But if someone wanted to give me even odds that even on a 5-10 year span that collateral deaths don't exceed disease deaths - no less 5x to 10x that, I will take that bet.

Edit: I can also see (meathelmet) its not just covid mitigation measures (distancing, masks, protections) you are including - rather prolonging covid impacts due to unvax'd / under-adopted mitigations dragging this out. I think I better see your narrative - tho I still question those projections. I can appreciate the logic of trying to quickly reduce the need for budgeting healthcare and impacted services by a fully vaccinated population which is thus unlikely to suffer resource shortages an collateral deaths.

[Mazderati]

Here is one prospective look from back in Jul2020 from the UK's NHS. YLL is years of life lost.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...388-0/fulltext

We collected data for 32 583 patients with breast cancer, 24 975 with colorectal cancer, 6744 with oesophageal cancer, and 29 305 with lung cancer. Across the three different scenarios, compared with pre-pandemic figures, we estimate a 7·9–9·6% increase in the number of deaths due to breast cancer up to year 5 after diagnosis, corresponding to between 281 (95% CI 266–295) and 344 (329–358) additional deaths. For colorectal cancer, we estimate 1445 (1392–1591) to 1563 (1534–1592) additional deaths, a 15·3–16·6% increase; for lung cancer, 1235 (1220–1254) to 1372 (1343–1401) additional deaths, a 4·8–5·3% increase; and for oesophageal cancer, 330 (324–335) to 342 (336–348) additional deaths, 5·8–6·0% increase up to 5 years after diagnosis. For these four tumour types, these data correspond with 3291–3621 additional deaths across the scenarios within 5 years. The total additional YLLs across these cancers is estimated to be 59 204–63 229 years.

[bennymac]

Yeah maybe hospitals are turning away the necessary cancer surgeries because they are overwhelmed with patients presenting with "scraped knees and broken fingers" who also end up having covid.....because.....it pays more? /s

You trolls just go in circles.

We wouldn't have such a mental health crisis from this without all the nefarious actors and partisan idiots stoking distrust of science and medicine which is prolonging it while making it worse

"oh the antichrist Dr Fauci said this 20 months ago and now it's changed so fuck that I'm not doing my part - you shouldn't either cause it's communism and unpatriotic and it's all big pharma and it's just a flu but Trump saved the world by fastracking vaccines! but it's still a hoax that he saved us from. He wore a mask and got vaccinated but that's just 3D chess. But for this hoax that is not dangerous you should take hydroxycholroquine. Demand it. No wait.....Zinc! No wait....horse dewormer medicine. Anyway....these covid measures sure are causing lots of mental health issues! But don't worry about the actual front line workers...those nurses and teachers and paramedics will be just fine dealing with 2 years of science denial - no burnout for them. As long as I can get my nails done without a mask on cause freedom."

[Mofro261]

I wonder if anyone has ever thought to look at excess mortality vs COVID-19 deaths?

https://journals.plos.org/plosmedici...l.pmed.1003571

COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis

BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in COVID-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to COVID-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics.


Methods and findings
In this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct COVID-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in US counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a 10-week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more COVID-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black, and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. A total of 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors.

Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to COVID-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than COVID-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of COVID-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics.

[MultiVerse]

Last year Alabama recorded more deaths than births. Alabama's population shrunk for the first time in history.