To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[abraham]

My wife and I went to Northwest Hospital in Seattle last week to get a Covid test for travel and the woman administering the test asked us if there were any picketers when we came in. Apparently they had been at that hospital earlier in the day. You'd really think people would have have more important things to do with their time.

More important than pro pandemic protesting?

[The AD]

More important than pro pandemic protesting?

A funny counter protest would be to go out with signs saying things like "I demand smallpox be brought back! Muh rights!!"

[Tri-Ungulate]

I thought Asspenis was an RJ alias but I don’t see multiple erroneous posts in a row so that theory doesn’t pan out.

AKA Mr. Gyptian

[jono]

A funny counter protest would be to go out with signs saying things like "I demand smallpox be brought back! Muh rights!!"

This is a good idea. If we ever get shut back down and have time for it, combining the FB-group troll thread and a sarcastically supportive super-extra-protest could generate hilarity. Apparently "false flag" is the norm anyway.

[teledad]

I found this helpful to help people (including me) understand the vaccine efficacy data from Israel:
https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated

After adjusting for vaccine prevalence and age:

We see quite high efficacy in all age groups, with the 80-89 group having the lowest efficacy (81.1%) and all others between 88.7% and 100%.

[teledad]

A funny counter protest would be to go out with signs saying things like "I demand smallpox be brought back! Muh rights!!"

Doesn't the Endangered Species Act protect viruses from extinction?

[bobz]

I'm starting to read more and more about people getting arrested for vaccine card fraud. Saw one case where a pharmacist was selling batches of real cards, another where fake cards were intercepted from China, and a few where individuals have been charged with trying to use fake cards. Here's one where a Florida family got fake cards for the whole gang, including for their 4- and 5-year-old kids, and got busted while trying to use them in Hawaii ($8000 in fines, and there could be more).

And Sturgis '21 just ended. South Dakota had one of the lowest case rates in the country, and it's still towards the low end, but they're now sporting the country's highest 2-week percentage increase, with Meade County (where Sturgis is) leading the way. I guess we'll see where it goes from here.

[funkendrenchman]

[Dexter Rutecki]

Some of us have been trying to tell the rest of this thread exactly what you are posting. Some even got banned for it.

What in the living fuck are you talking about? Literally no one was banned for saying that vaxes might not eliminate covid. What's wrong with you?

[mfcf13]

Here's one where a Florida family got fake cards for the whole gang, including for their 4- and 5-year-old kids, and got busted while trying to use them in Hawaii ($8000 in fines, and there could be more).

It's shocking, shocking I tell you, that they were from Florida.

It would have been awesome to be in the room when the LEO explained to them that they got exposed because it is literally impossible for their 4 and 5 year old to have a vaccine card.

[Adolf Allerbush]

What in the living fuck are you talking about? Literally no one was banned for saying that vaxes might not eliminate covid. What's wrong with you?

Mr. G is incredibly stupid, always has been.

[huckbucket]

Let's put some context around Covid relative to other pathogens.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/dat...tious-diseases
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
https://unchartedterritories.tomaspu...thing-you-need

[mcski]

Surprised it is close to smallpox in both axis.

[JimmyCarter]

Let's put some context around Covid relative to other pathogens.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/dat...tious-diseases
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
https://unchartedterritories.tomaspu...thing-you-need

15% case fatality rate seems way off?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

[MultiVerse]

^ The 15% number is proportional with age. So it's (deaths per age group) / (cases per age group) = case-fatality rates.

Otherwise it will vary according to demographics and the current average age of COVID-19 cases. If the average infection age is lower case fatality rates are lower. If the average infection age is higher case fatality rates are higher. If there's an even distribution of cases in an older average population, like Italy, then the CFR approaches 15%. It's one reason why African countries with their younger populations haven't fared as badly as a lot of people predicted.

[JimmyCarter]

^ The 15% number is proportional with age. So it's (deaths per age group) / (cases per age group) = case-fatality rates.

Otherwise it will vary according to demographics and the current average age of COVID-19 cases.

So is the chart for something more specific? Because our CFR looks to be more like 1.7% per the Hopkins data. What am I missing?

[TBS]

Our county has 29K fully vaxxed out of a population of 60K (32K have had at least one)

I just heard an interview on NPR about the situation in W2 county
Your Director of Public Health doesn't seem to believe in widespread vax or masks. Didn't come across as especially qualified either

[MultiVerse]

So is the chart for something more specific? Because our CFR looks to be more like 1.7% per the Hopkins data. What am I missing?

Look at Table 1 in huckbucket's linked source:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/

Notice how they break the CFR out by age group. Dividing Deaths (n) by Cases (n) gives the 14.1% CFR.

The difference between 1.7% and 14.1% suggests the overall average age for cases is lower than the average population age, or something to that effect.

For example, if all cases fell within the 40-49 age group the CFR would be ~0.9% and if all cases fell within the 70-79 age group the CFR would be ~26.7%.

It's one of the reasons why the 'waning immunity' story isn't quite right. Immunity definitely wanes, especially in older people, but most of what we're seeing in America and elsewhere is younger vaxxed people mixing with unvaxxed people which increases the chances of breakthrough infections.

[JimmyCarter]

Look at Table 1 in huckbucket's linked source:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/

Notice how they break the CFR out by age group. Dividing Deaths (n) by Cases (n) gives the 14.1% CFR.

The difference between 1.7% and 14.1% suggests the overall average age for cases is lower than the average population age, or something to that effect.

For example, if all cases fell within the 40-49 age group the CFR would be ~0.9% and if all cases fell within the 70-79 age group the CFR would be ~26.7%.

It's one of the reason why the 'waning immunity' story isn't quite right. Immunity definitely wanes, especially in older people, but a lot of what we're seeing in America and elsewhere is vaxxed people mixing with unvaxxed people which increases the chances of breakthrough infections so that's why we're seeing more of them.

Got it, thanks

[MultiVerse]

Yeah it looks that way i.e. CFR with no vaccines and no treatments, and if cases are evenly distributed across all age groups.

[rideit]

I don’t know if this has been posted, but it is an amazing read in layman’s terms.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...-virus-do-next

[jono]

I found this helpful to help people (including me) understand the vaccine efficacy data from Israel:
https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated

After adjusting for vaccine prevalence and age:

Thanks for posting that. It's one of the best/most thorough descriptions of the stats that I've seen and pretty accessible. And makes a very strong case for getting vaccines to third world populations before boosters--that topic deserves more discussion about the apparent drop in efficacy coming from most vulnerable groups being the first ones dosed.

Charts in that blog speak to the vax/un-vax differences pretty well, too.

[Mazderati]

This guy literally let his politics and religion kill him. It's possible he is otherwise alive today. Mind-bending.

https://www.wyff4.com/article/greenv...d-19/37350500#

[basinbeater]

Back to school night tonight, meet the teachers. Etc... Lots of people, lots of masks. I counted 8 people inside the school with no masks, 2 separate families. They were the unhealthiest looking 8 people I saw all night.

sent from Utah.

[John_B]

I don’t know if this has been posted, but it is an amazing read in layman’s terms.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...-virus-do-next

This is quite a good article. Thanks rideit. I really appreciate the level of discussion in there without getting super bogged down in furin sites and shit like that.