Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[rod9301]

Just to toss some chaos into this thread, let's say this came from a lab.

What would that have changed last spring/summer? Would we have less of an antivaccine group because it's from a lab? Would it still be just a flu? Were we in a good position to do anything about China or would it be more important to deal with covid first?

And if in the coming months we find real evidence this came from a lab in China, what is a reasonable reaction?

That's like saying, yeah this guy killed someone, but we can't change this, so let him go

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[AEV]

I hear what you are saying. How much deference should we give to Trump's shitty baseless claims? There's a fucking mountain of lies to unpack.

"Almost" ain't shit. Maybe it's your socical circles. Again, "said it" does not amount to evidence and was treated as such. The claim could eventually be true and also serve as baseless deflection - a broken clock moment doesn't win prizes.

There always was coverage on the lab theory - I followed a shit ton of it, right media, science publications. Hardly a "oh wow, never heard of this before...." breaking insight.

Premature claims deserve pushback. Circumstantial reasoning warrants framing. In the midst a public health crisis, the blame/origin research doesn't need to be on my or alt-right timelines.

I hear what you are saying too. I get all upset on this topic because I was fervent about investigating this early on, and seemingly no one would do anything about it. Then the SuperCheese came on and spoke out about it, and I saw what it seemed to be half a country deny any investigation into it.

Immature Americans will definitely go about the information wrong, but I believe we should have put more effort into this. It could have helped us, we simply don’t know what we don’t know.

[AEV]

Look. If someone, their mouthpieces and sycophants lied to you on a daily basis with the intent of gaslighting half the population for 3.5 years you don’t just take their word on it with no evidence one day.

The scientists are looking into it and to date they have not concluded anything AFAIK. I’ll go with the science when it comes to a conclusion.

The whole “people of a certain stripe didn’t believe this stuff” is just another level of gaslighting bullshit.

dude you got me all wrong. Other reputable people (scientists) were saying it. Idc what Trump or Pompeoprick says. I never ridiculued anyone for not “believing”. A lot of people just put blinders on, because Trump parroted something he heard, delaying the investigations.

We should have been arguing about this a year ago. Any evidence we have now, was there a year ago. The “first 48” is over

major fail IMO

[summit]

My position is and always has been:

Fuck Emperor Xi and the evil CCP!

[old_newguy]

dude you got me all wrong. Other reputable people (scientists) were saying it. Idc what Trump or Pompeoprick says. I never ridiculued anyone for not “believing”. A lot of people just put blinders on, delaying the investigations.

We should have been arguing about this a year ago. Any evidence we have now, was there a year ago. The “first 48” is over

I didn’t follow how this developed. Why did the previous administration tamp down investigations into this issue?

[CarlMega]

That's like saying, yeah this guy killed someone, but we can't change this, so let him go

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Fucking glib.

There are unfortunate circumstances outside of man's control.

There are accidents.

There's negligence.

There's intent.

There may be a combination of all of them. Or none of them.

Each one of these things would likely warrant a different response. From all accounts, we are nowhere fucking close to pinpointing the circumstances - not even the geographical ground zero.

[AEV]

I didn’t follow how this developed. Why did the previous administration tamp down investigations into this issue?

Fuck if I know. Another reason I am royally pissed at the previous administration. They could have done an investigation, and didn’t. They just used it to rile up their base, divide a country full of social media hound retards, instead of actually doing something productive that MIGHT have helped solve this problem

probably because Trump didn’t care about solving the problem. Using info to just rile up his base is more important to him than getting much done

[riser4]

Nuke wuhan?
From orbit

Go back to eating paint chips. You really want to end everything for the humans right here and now over this? China is not going to passively let us nuke them, even if that were remotely acceptable, which it isn't. And I am pretty sure their technology is probably superior to ours at this point so I would not be surprised in the least if we can't even land an ICBM there without them intercepting it or causing the satellite guidance to go out and it lands in Russia, who promptly unloads on us. And there are lot more scenarios where the world ends.

[Flounder]

And you guys here guzzled up the Chinese official position on the subject without question.

Pretty rich coming from you and “your guys”. Let’s play this through. Best case scenario, China had found and isolated a natural COVID variant and accidentally released it from the lab. Worst case, China created this virus in a lab and purposely unleashed it.

Either way China now knows that all they have to do is find or create another virus and release it in the US. Then they drop a few grand in targeted Facebook advertisement targeting the freedumb crowd and voila, the US is brought to their knees. Much cheaper than launching a military assault, and much more effective.

So all along you knew this was caused by a Chinese lab leak and it threatened the US? Simple mitigation factors such as mask wearing and social distancing could have helped immensely, certainly worked here in Vermont. Even knowing we were basically attacked by the Chinese, you and a large portion of the US couldn’t even take these simple steps to protect the country. And we’re supposed to believe that you are the real patriots and those of us that were actually taking steps to protect the country from a foreign attack are uninformed sheep?

[AEV]

If it did come from the lab, it’s pretty inconceivable that it was intentional, right?

why would China want to shut down the world, when they are not yet in control. And to get in control, they need other countries being productive and taking loans or buying stuff from them, so they get more and more money and power.

what am I missing? Just saying this to clarify I don’t think it was intentional.

[MontuckyFried]

Just to toss some chaos into this thread, let's say this came from a lab.

What would that have changed last spring/summer?

Well, for starters, if China was more forthright about it from the beginning (in November 2019 presumably when scientists and Wuhan residents were starting to show up in hospitals?), it would have been awful fucking helpful so the world could shut down the borders, AND if they said "Yo. This came for our lab. Our bad.", then MAYBE they could have shared some vital information that allowed us to research it more appropriately. IF it came from a lab (and I'm not saying it conclusively is), then perhaps we wouldn't be wasting so much time and resources trying to chase down the source, and IF it came from a lab, then the Wuhan lab obviously knew it far more intimately so data could have been more transparently shared and the virus could have been more effectively studied early on. Instead the Chinese govt squashed whistleblowers, silence doctors, and tried blocking investigations from the outset. Bad look and perhaps hundreds of thousands of lives could have been saved at the beginning had they been more transparent about it all.

And if in the coming months we find real evidence this came from a lab in China, what is a reasonable reaction?

Make them pay monetarily. At least try. All the trillions in goverment funded medical research, treatments, vaccine distribution, stimulus/unemployment/business support spending, economic repercussions, loss of lives, etc. Yeah. Easy enough to draw up an invoice for all that and have the same amount of that debt forgiven that we owed to the Chinese. And the rest of the world can follow suit.

"Debts? What debts. We don't owe you shit anymore, President Pooh. Now GTFO!" We should elect Samuel L. Jackson as temporary ambassador just so he can deliver that line with his epic swearing voice.

[summit]

And I am pretty sure their technology is probably superior to ours at this point so I would not be surprised in the least if we can't even land an ICBM there without them intercepting it or causing the satellite guidance to go out and it lands in Russia, who promptly unloads on us.

No... just, no. That's not how any of that works.

We can easily kill far more Chinese than there are Americans. China has no ability to intercept incoming ICBM RVs (even at 3GD) nor invoke magical portals (?) to make ballistic warheads or TERCOM/INS missiles hit Russia.

We have very little ability to intercept a Chinese retaliation aimed at CONUS. The growing concern is that their technological advances (hypersonics) could give them a disarming/decapitating first strike ability in the coming years if they chose to develop it.

Unlike the US and Russia, China is not subject to any strategic arms limitation treaty nor any verification scheme, so we don't know exactly how many land based missiles they have, but we have some idea and they have in the past chosen an apparent strategy of minimum credible deterrence (countervalue). In English: losing less bad is still losing.

It is possible but not advisable that we could execute a disarming first strike. Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.

[CarlMega]

If it did come from the lab, it’s pretty inconceivable that it was intentional, right?

It'd certainly be an ill conceived plan; but history has legion of ill conceived plans.

There are endless lab scenarios one could conjure:

general corona virus research gone wrong

weaponized corona virus research gone wrong

unscrupulous public experimentation

Bad state actor

Bad lab or 3rd party actor

Bad safety protocol

Unforeseeable accident

[MontuckyFried]

general corona virus research gone wrong
...
Bad safety protocol

I honestly think it realistically boils down to those two things. I don't believe the research being done or the lab outbreak itself was malicious. Just really dire mistakes made. But then made worse by a communist government trying desperately to cover up said mistakes.

[Benny Profane]

My position is and always has been:

Fuck Emperor Xi and the evil CCP!

Yeah, but, cheap sneakers and computers.

[AEV]

It'd certainly be an ill conceived plan; but history has legion of ill conceived plans.

There are endless lab scenarios one could conjure:

general corona virus research gone wrong

weaponized corona virus research gone wrong

unscrupulous public experimentation

Bad state actor

Bad lab or 3rd party actor

Bad safety protocol

Unforeseeable accident

You forgot the most plausible cause

[old_newguy]

I honestly think it realistically boils down to those two things. I don't believe the research being done or the lab outbreak itself was malicious. Just really dire mistakes made. But then made worse by a communist government trying desperately to cover up said mistakes.

Great. Do you have any evidence to back this up?

[summit]

If it did come from the lab, it’s pretty inconceivable that it was intentional, right?

why would China want to shut down the world, when they are not yet in control. And to get in control, they need other countries being productive and taking loans or buying stuff from them, so they get more and more money and power.

what am I missing? Just saying this to clarify I don’t think it was intentional.

If this came from a lab, I doubt the release was intentional as only a mad-man would think they could predict the outcomes.

Let me tell you what was intentional, whether the lab release is true or not:

Once China knew they had a novel pathogen pandemic budding in Wuhan, it was very evident to the CCP that lockdowns would be required with the attendant economic devastation. If China had to suffer these lockdowns while the rest of the world had time to prepare, then China would comparatively suffer worse. If China instead denied the existence of the pandemic, denied human to human transmission, avoided sharing information, demanded positive media coverage, demanded continued international travel, and pushed 10s of millions of their citizens to travel abroad from the afflicted regions of China, they could guarantee that the calamity would spread quickly across the unprepared globe while China, more adept at draconian pandemic controls, stood a better chance at suffering less than the world and ending up ahead.

Remember, they announced their quarantines days ahead of time while demanding international flights continue... ask travelers in mid/late January what air travel looked like, particularly on the Pacific routes: every seat full, huge proportions of Chinese.

[CarlMega]

it would have been awful fucking helpful so the world could shut down the borders, AND if they said "Yo. This came for our lab. Our bad.", then MAYBE they could have shared some vital information that allowed us to research it more appropriately.

What the fuck? We had several highly effective vaccines in under a fucking year.

USA's shitty rallying and initial response and missteps are ours to own. Not "oh if only this hostile nation was more forth coming. not fair!". GTFO. Our national security is measured by our response to threats not nicely forecasted and packaged threats with a bow on em'.

[altasnob]

Let me tell you what was intentional, whether the lab release is true or not:

Once China knew they had a novel pathogen pandemic budding in Wuhan, it was very evident to the CCP that lockdowns would be required with the attendant economic devastation. If China had to suffer these lockdowns while the rest of the world had time to prepare, then China would comparatively suffer worse. If China instead denied the existence of the pandemic, denied human to human transmission, avoided sharing information, demanded positive media coverage, demanded continued international travel, and pushed 10s of millions of their citizens to travel abroad from the afflicted regions of China, they could guarantee that the calamity would spread quickly across the unprepared globe while China, more adept at draconian pandemic controls, stood a better chance at suffering less than the world and ending up ahead.

Remember, they announced their quarantines days ahead of time while demanding international flights continue... ask travelers in mid/late January what air travel looked like, particularly on the Pacific routes: every seat full, huge proportions of Chinese.

I agree with all of this and feel it is similar to a country firing a nuclear weapon at another country. But how should the rest of the world retaliate against China for this? The world is "punishing" China for their actions by buying a bunch of Chinese junk, further empowering China.

[The AD]

I’m not going to make conjecture. All I’m going to say is it would have been better to know earlier, than to still not to know now. It’s always good to know, I don’t think that needs to be argued. We spent tons of time dealing with other non-covid things the past year, we easily could have put more effort into this.

The problem is researching the origin of the virus is by definition not a "non-covid thing." Resources spent on this would have been better spent on actually trying to eradicate the disease--and that's what was done. Yes, maybe it's time to more seriously study the origins now, but it wouldn't have accomplished anything worthwhile a year ago, IMO.

[bobz]

Look. If someone, their mouthpieces and sycophants lied to you on a daily basis with the intent of gaslighting half the population for 3.5 years you don’t just take their word on it with no evidence one day.

There's a subgenre of logic puzzles, wherein one character always lies, and another always tells the truth (and often a third character who sometimes lies). But it doesn't work like that in real life. In the world outside of logic puzzles, a liar is someone who has no regard for the truth; being sometimes possibly right doesn't make them less of a liar.

Furthermore, as to the cult following that had been drumming up the "it was China's fault!" line, the agenda wasn't so much to identify the disease's genesis, but to get their leadership off the hook for having downplayed and mismanaged the pandemic.

The US needed to be prepared for and to act upon this pandemic, if it had a natural origin, if it had an accidental origin, or if it was maliciously released. Per the latter category, the US should have been the most, not the least, prepared and actively responsible, because that would put it within the scope of the ridiculously lavishly funded Department of Defense, rather than the more modestly funded public health agencies (the latter having been cut by a GOP Congress during the Trump administration).

The whole “people of a certain stripe didn’t believe this stuff” is just another level of gaslighting bullshit.

Montucky has a wealth of content, tens of thousands of posts, in this very thread, with which to try to make such a point, if he chooses to. If he wants to look up my posts on the subject, from over a year ago, I'll help him out with this link (spoiler, I considered the lab link scenario possible but doubted the deliberate release scenario).

[Mofro261]

The "we need to know where Sars2 came from now!" crowd may have to take a rain check on rapidly tracing the origins. Besides Sars-CoV2, there is still isn't a confirmed direct line of transmission for 3 of the other 6 coronaviruses that infect humans, years after these viruses were first discovered in humans (NL63 2004, HKU1 2004, 229E- 1966). 229E has been found in Alpacas/camelids, but there is debate whether they are the donor or recipient as the alpacas and bats generally don't overlap and the alpacas get sick. It is assumed these also have an intermediate host animal that allowed the jump to humans, but those links are still to be discovered. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7098031/



Animal hosts of HCoVs. Blue, green, purple, red, orange, grey, brown arrows represent the transmission of HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 from their natural hosts (bats or rodents) to the intermediate hosts (camelids, civets, dromedary camels, pangolins or bovines), and eventually to the human population. No concrete evidence exists on the intermediated host(s) of HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-HKU1, which was shown as a question mark (?).




Publication this month from on Mayalasian respiratory illness samples from 2018 suggests Another new coronavirus has jumped to people

[XXX-er]

I don't thnk the Chinese are stupid enough to try and kill the goose that lays the golden egg AKA every consumer in the world

at least if China ( you must say China the way Trump would say it ) let the world know about Covid sooner Trump could have ignored it sooner

the thing is they lie a lot which to be fair is part of survival in the PRC IMO so the word got out not as fast as it could have

which made zero difference in the end

[k2skier112]

Fuck if I know. Another reason I am royally pissed at the previous administration. They could have done an investigation, and didn’t. They just used it to rile up their base, divide a country full of social media hound retards, instead of actually doing something productive that MIGHT have helped solve this problem

probably because Trump didn’t care about solving the problem. Using info to just rile up his base is more important to him than getting much done

Because T**** knew it was a lie. It was his Fake News. T**** started a baseless claim
Food for thot, if the USA had a nasty virus leak from a lab, would the USA apologize and tell the world what happened?
T**** is inspirational, not operational