Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[zartagen]

Seeing talk now and mapping that it might have jumped the divide and is running east. Attachment 344429


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If that's the GOES17 fire detection layer on caltopo, I've noticed that it has been very skewed to the east of the fires, probably due to IR detection of the smoke plume. It also comes with an "Experimental - Use caution" label. So I wouldn't be too sure it's that far east.

[adrenalated]

JFC isn’t that running right down the valley of Emerald Lake/Dream Lake/Bear Lake by Hallet Peak?! Or north by Little Matterhorn/Notchtop? Fuckfuckfuckfuck.

This map https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/?fbclid=IwA...4/-105.7135/15 shows it a bit further north. Spruce Canyon/Lake Irene/Rainbow Lake area

[zartagen]

Winds at 12k' over the divide in RMNP are forecast to be west at 50mph+ and super dry right now, so that doesn't look good.

Good news is that the second cold front this afternoon should push well up past Estes with moisture and east winds. They'll come in gusty at first, but then mellow out. Currently light drizzle in boulder from this morning's weaker cold front. That'll help the fires on the east slope chill out.

[zartagen]

Caltopo fire activity layer with the VIIRS 375m satellite:

Latest update is from 03:24 this morning.

[Danno]

Goodbye to the west side of RMNP, it was nice knowing you.
Talk about a flood of emotions today. One of my favorite zones burning to a crisp, my best friend nervously awaiting if his property is toast, and off to the hospital this evening for labor induction.

Preemptive congrats to you, mang! Hope all goes well for you later today.

[zartagen]

One more screenshot: surface winds and relative humidity at 3pm (HRRR3 model shown, but the NAM mostly agrees.)

Looks like the front hits Estes between 1 and 2pm, then climbs to the divide between 2 and 3pm bringing cold air, 90%+ humidity, and possibly some precip.

[hatchgreenchile]

Scanner chatter confirmed that fire crossed the divide and is in Spruce Creek / Forest Canyon area.

[stapes]

Scanner chatter confirmed that fire crossed the divide and is in Spruce Creek / Forest Canyon area.

Hearing some folks in Estes are getting call to evac or get ready. We have some elderly family that live up there and while they haven’t got the call are preemptively coming down to stay with us.

Come on snow. Fuck.

[The SnowShow]

Any word on whether Grand Lake is burnt down?

[brutah]

Any word on whether Grand Lake is burnt down?

that's the word on the street from some friends in Tabernash. haven't read anything that confirms it though

[I've seen black diamonds!]

Convinced my mother to leave Estes and stay with me. View from Fish Creek Road:



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[Kinnikinnick]

Evacuations in Estes area starting

https://member.everbridge.net/index/...event_id=43698


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[uglymoney]

Jesus. My x girlfriends x husband is in the line of fire. Hot new wife and complete reno and knowing him a hot mortgage on the place. This thing is hauling ass.

[uglymoney]

From Twitters house in Grand Lake being overtaken.

https://twitter.com/CBS4Dom/status/1...026203650?s=09

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[zartagen]

Cold front has hit Estes Park. Hopefully just in time. 32 degrees there with light northeast wind.

[toastybroski]

Main part of town in Grand Lake survived. Sounds like some of the areas close to 34 and the lake did as well.
https://coloradosun.com/2020/10/22/e...e-destruction/

[EWG]

Saw on the tweeter that Polis said they've lost 6,500 structures. Can anyone confirm he said that?

Also on the tweeter they are rescuing a hiker trapped by flames at Odessa Lake. if true, RMNP is on fire.

[SKIP IN7RO]

^Man shitting in Hanging Lake seems to be higher priority news in my newsfeed. One other article is about the cold front missing the fires.

[doebedoe]

^Man shitting in Hanging Lake seems to be higher priority news in my newsfeed. One other article is about the cold front missing the fires.

Seeing some speculation that the cold front is being broken up by the heat / ash of the plume.

[I've seen black diamonds!]

Some good friends are 99% sure they lost their home in Grand Lake. Their place is not in town.

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[zartagen]

Seeing some speculation that the cold front is being broken up by the heat / ash of the plume.

Fuck, I hope it still steals some energy from the fire.

[smmokan]

How much does the cold front matter if it doesn't have any/much moisture associated with it? Cold air might help a little bit, but I would assume the associated winds would hurt more?

[mdblows]

How much does the cold front matter if it doesn't have any/much moisture associated with it? Cold air might help a little bit, but I would assume the associated winds would hurt more?

Ventusky is showing W-->E winds on the west side of the divide and E-->W on the west side of the divide in RMNP. Anyone smarter than me want to comment on how this might impact fire behavior?

[turbomike15]

Fuck, I hope it still steals some energy from the fire.

It definitely helps, even without actual drops falling out of the air, the airmass will hold more moisture and reduce fire activity. Fire radiative power is strongly driven by ambient temperatures as well (ie hotter days makes more fire).

https://www.auburn.edu/academic/fore...r_elements.htm

[Rideski]

C Lazy U Ranch needs help evacuating 200 horses from Granby to Denver
979-618-5941