Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[old goat]

Question for the epidemiologists and virologists, relative to opening schools and offices. Maintaining distance and wearing a mask make sense if you're having a 15 minute conversation with one person, as an example. Do either one make a difference if you're in a closed space for multiple hours with multiple people as you are in school, an office, or a meatpacking plant? I would assume that whatever evidence there is for either is based on studies of the physics of particle dispersal and not on any studies comparing disease rates in environments where distancing and masks are used vs those where they're not. Or are there such studies?

[MultiVerse]

^ There are ecological studies showing masks work. Those studies are less about physics and more about breaking the chain of transmission. Masks, social distancing (when possible) and hygiene slow transmission enough to make stay at home orders unnecessary. Then when there are larger clustered outbreaks or hotspots we immediately step in and control the virus.

The circumstance of high disease prevalence, along with meatpacking plants, can be thought of as a special case and not the default for thinking about whether masks work.

It's not necessarily a question of whether masks prevent infection in all cases but whether they stop infection in enough cases. Research shows the filtering capability of masks works to slow the spread in proportion to the number of people wearing them. If masks are highly effective smaller percentages need to wear them and if less effective then higher percentages need to wear them. Also, the earlier people start wearing masks the bigger the reduction in the cumulative number of cases.




FWIW, the study that a lot of people referenced earlier in this thread saying masks don’t work was retracted: https://twitter.com/GermHunterMD/sta...77255972106245

[altasnob]

Japan wears masks and has not locked down and is doing well. Do teachers in Japan wear N95s? I assume just regular hospital masks and that seems to be doing a good job there of keeping everything in check. Just copy whatever Japan is doing because it seems to be working with minimal inconvenience on their citizens.

[XXX-er]

up here in the tree planting camps every year they always have at least 2 people sick in camp at any given time with colds or flu but this year with masks and social distancing no colds no flu so it does work

This season They stay in camp and just work, even the laundry is sent out & don for them, no partying, social distancing, masks in the trucks

and 26 days in camp so no Covid

[LongShortLong]

OG - WHO updated their mask guidance recently. They likely also published their justification and reference to studies.

[jono]

I would assume that whatever evidence there is for either is based on studies of the physics of particle dispersal and not on any studies comparing disease rates in environments where distancing and masks are used vs those where they're not.

Similarly, I'm curious to know how often virologists or epidemiologists take fluid mechanics (probably the most applicable study of the physics of particles). It sounds from Multiverse's response as if this is rare and my (limited) reading of studies involving physical experiments on masks gave the impression that it might be extremely rare. Not because they get things wrong from a fluid mechanics standpoint but because the principles and tools that are known to engineers are usually just ignored by those researchers. Is that because the stats are expected to describe the results or is it just the only option they have?

[old goat]

^ There are ecological studies showing masks work. Those studies are less about physics and more about breaking the chain of transmission. Masks, social distancing (when possible) and hygiene slow transmission enough to make stay at home orders unnecessary. Then when there are larger clustered outbreaks or hotspots we immediately step in and control the virus.

The circumstance of high disease prevalence, along with meatpacking plants, can be thought of as a special case and not the default for thinking about whether masks work.

It's not necessarily a question of whether masks prevent infection in all cases but whether they stop infection in enough cases. Research shows the filtering capability of masks works to slow the spread in proportion to the number of people wearing them. If masks are highly effective smaller percentages need to wear them and if less effective then higher percentages need to wear them. Also, the earlier people start wearing masks the bigger the reduction in the cumulative number of cases.




FWIW, the study that a lot of people referenced earlier in this thread saying masks don’t work was retracted: https://twitter.com/GermHunterMD/sta...77255972106245

I'm not questioning whether masks and distancing work. I wear a mask the few times I go shopping or if I have to have a worker in our house. (Had the chimney cleaned the other day--the two guys wore masks as did we.) My question is whether or not there's a point where there are enough people exposed for long enough in a closed environment that distancing and masks no longer work. I'm not saying that is true although I suspect it is. My point is not to discourage distancing and masks but to question whether we can rely on them to significantly reduce the risk when people go back to work or whether they give a false sense of security.

IMO the best way to allow people to return to work with relative safety is repeated, aggressive screening, but I doubt people are going to want to have a swab stuck up their nose every week at work.

[Core Shot]

Old goat I respect your medical wisdom.

But after the first unknown scare where we didn’t know if this was the next Ebola shutdown made sense
Since then the data indicated that under fifty should not fear and needs to live life and work the economy.

Older and susceptible people need to shelter and mask etc.

This needs to run its course.

Under fifty, a new untested vaccine could easily kill more than the rona

We shall see. But 0.01% for under fifty is like the flu.
Old folks. Shelter in place.

[schuss]

If we'd actually let medical pros manage the response it never would have gotten past the cruise ships and airports.
We're only here because Trump & Co decided they didn't want to follow beat practices and go their own stupid way.

[old goat]

The WHO and the CDC were off the starting line as well. The epidemiologists have part of the blame. And both NYC and State and CA were slow. CA failed to track returnees from Wuhan and the cruise ship passengers. Trump let people return from China and Europe but there was no effective identification or tracking once people reached the US. It was left up to the states to deal with the returnees and the states didn't have the resources in the form of testing or trackers.

The system in this country leaves too much responsibility with the states for dealing with pandemics. Our public health systems were set up to deal with the public health issues of the last century--TB, STD's, localized food borne illnesses from unclean restaurants and stores. Not that in the current system a federally coordinated response would have helped--but in a normal administration maybe.

[Benny Profane]

WASHINGTON—Emphasizing the dire consequences should the sovereign nation remain in existence, NIAID director Dr. Anthony Fauci warned the public Tuesday of needless suffering and death if America were allowed to continue. “Let me be clear, if the United States of America persists into 2021, not only will many people die, but left unchecked, this federal republic will unleash untold destruction on the world,” said Fauci, adding that the North American country was already too far out of control, and that only way to stop the devastating effects of its spread was to eliminate it as quickly as possible. “Unfortunately, I can tell you that over the past hundreds of years, we’ve already witnessed the terrible, global consequences of the American experiment firsthand. While people may act prematurely and claim that the 325 million-person nation has been safely contained, believe me, this is just the beginning.” At press time, Fauci urged the public not to underestimate the nation as it had already killed too many people to count.

[The SnowShow]

What happened to Fauci? Was he offed?

[bobz]

There's been an uptick in cases in Placer and Nevada counties (Tahoe-Truckee, CA). Of course, on FB, the main remedy suggested for this problem is for Bay Area people to Stay Home!!! Uh, it's like a month and a half ago when Tahoe-Truckee was declared a Covid "hotspot", so just maybe it's been spreading in place more than anything else since then, and approaches to stopping the spread other than hand-wringing about non-locals might help. I love my Truckee friends and all, but Jesus Hercules Christ.

[Benny Profane]

What happened to Fauci? Was he offed?

I heard him quoted today, saying that he was disturbed about the possible spread from protests. It was muffled, like he had a hood over his head. I think I heard a gun cock.

[Benny Profane]

There's been an uptick in cases in Placer and Nevada counties (Tahoe-Truckee, CA). Of course, on FB, the main remedy suggested for this problem is for Bay Area people to Stay Home!!! Uh, it's like a month and a half ago when Tahoe-Truckee was declared a Covid "hotspot", so just maybe it's been spreading in place more than anything else since then, and approaches to stopping the spread other than hand-wringing about non-locals might help. I love my Truckee friends and all, but Jesus Hercules Christ.

We're way beyond all that now. It's everywhere. Endemic. Good luck.

[Mr. Mike]

Old goat I respect your medical wisdom.

But after the first unknown scare where we didn’t know if this was the next Ebola shutdown made sense
Since then the data indicated that under fifty should not fear and needs to live life and work the economy.

Older and susceptible people need to shelter and mask etc.

This needs to run its course.

Under fifty, a new untested vaccine could easily kill more than the rona

We shall see. But 0.01% for under fifty is like the flu.
Old folks. Shelter in place.

Except under 50 doesn’t get the flu unless they don’t get the vaxx. So if 50,000 get the flu and 1,000,000 get the rona?

And how many under 50s live with overs?

[Core Shot]

Except under 50 doesn’t get the flu unless they don’t get the vaxx. So if 50,000 get the flu and 1,000,000 get the rona?

And how many under 50s live with overs?

You’re right. Everyone stay home and the federal reserve can print enough money for amazon to deliver us food and essentials. No need to work
Money printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[KenJongIll]

OG - WHO updated their mask guidance recently. They likely also published their justification and reference to studies.

Have they confirmed that human to human transmission is possible yet?

[old goat]

There's been an uptick in cases in Placer and Nevada counties (Tahoe-Truckee, CA). Of course, on FB, the main remedy suggested for this problem is for Bay Area people to Stay Home!!! Uh, it's like a month and a half ago when Tahoe-Truckee was declared a Covid "hotspot", so just maybe it's been spreading in place more than anything else since then, and approaches to stopping the spread other than hand-wringing about non-locals might help. I love my Truckee friends and all, but Jesus Hercules Christ.

The Nevada County cases were locals. Not unexpected. Presumably if someone visiting from the bay or valley acquired the bug in Truckee they would have been tested back home. The cases were one connected group and one individual. I can't find any other information. It would be very good for people to know what kind of activity is responsible for the cluster.

[The SnowShow]

Has there been any tracing or studies done to see if the Mem. Day bullshit that was going on nationwide had a big effect on cases?

[old goat]

Old goat I respect your medical wisdom.

But after the first unknown scare where we didn’t know if this was the next Ebola shutdown made sense
Since then the data indicated that under fifty should not fear and needs to live life and work the economy.

Older and susceptible people need to shelter and mask etc.

This needs to run its course.

Under fifty, a new untested vaccine could easily kill more than the rona

We shall see. But 0.01% for under fifty is like the flu.
Old folks. Shelter in place.

My medical knowledge has nothing to do with this thread. I had some basic virology and immunology and no epidemiology in med school over 40 years ago and I guess I know a little about how to critique a simple clinical medical paper. My opinions are not expert.

[jono]

Older and susceptible people need to shelter and mask etc.

This needs to run its course.

These statements are not compatible (in addition to being stupid and expensive in the case of the second one). You should check into some more consistent medication schedule so your anxiety and fear don't overwhelm you.

[neufox47]

So how does a +65yo A+ male increase their antibodies?

Increasing anti-bodies is pretty hard, but taking Vitamin D, Zinc, getting 8 hrs of sleep, and staying healthy looks like a decent defense that has no to minimal negative side effects.

[bennymac]

Increasing anti-bodies is pretty hard, but taking Vitamin D, Zinc, getting 8 hrs of sleep, and staying healthy looks like a decent defense that has no to minimal negative side effects.

This. Minimize alcohol intake. Don’t smoke/vape anything (use edibles if necessary). Minimize stress. Aerobic exercise 5x times a week (golf/fishing etc doesn’t count - but doesn’t hurt).

To be clear I know all of the above but still struggle to put it into practice. If I end up on a ventilator my wife will be like “well yeah what did he expect would happen?”

[Core Shot]

These statements are not compatible (in addition to being stupid and expensive in the case of the second one). You should check into some more consistent medication schedule so your anxiety and fear don't overwhelm you.

You’re the one with anxiety and fear.
And stupid and expensive is continuing the shutdown. Thank the lord I’m not in the restaurant business. Those guys are fucked.