Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

Fucking zombies.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/europ...ntl/index.html

After watching Death of Stalin the other night, I'm less surprised.

[KenJongIll]

After watching Death of Stalin the other night, I'm less surprised.

I saw that..almost watched. Seemed like it was a comedy though? Please enlighten us...worth the watch?

[Boissal]

Move

Move? Cause my neighbor drunkenly fell in a fire pit?? That would be like leaving Lyon cause someone smoked a cig next to me at a restaurant patio... Sure, the smoke is annoying but there are a lot more reasons to stay put. If I have to explain to you why UT beats a whole host of other places I could uproot myself to we'd be at it for way longer than I care.

[Benny Profane]

It's, em, interesting. Black comedy. Buscemi is pretty cool as Nikita Khrushchev. None of the actors even attempt a Russian accent. It would be useful to have some knowledge of the actual real life characters portrayed before watching. Stalin was a murderous psycho.

[Benny Profane]

Move? Cause my neighbor drunkenly fell in a fire pit?? That would be like leaving Lyon cause someone smoked a cig next to me at a restaurant patio... Sure, the smoke is annoying but there are a lot more reasons to stay put. If I have to explain to you why UT beats a whole host of other places I could uproot myself to we'd be at it for way longer than I care.

Well, yeah, Utah has its points, but, that's no reason to live next to trash. I don't live in the Bronx.

[old goat]

This is my new theme song - sing it everyone!

I tried. It's not in my key.

[mall walker]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ial-distancing

surprising to nobody, using the police to enforce social distancing immediately devolves into racist violence (from the police)

[KQ]

Another resource for masks. These are made in Washington. My GF bought one and is very happy with it. Note: they no longer have the behind the head straps. Lots of colors to choose from.




The Cat Ball

[DBdude]

Why have the sign?

Company policy you fool


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Benny Profane]

Holy crap.

Carnival, which was criticized after outbreaks at sea, plans to restart cruises before summer ends.

The cruise giant Carnival Corporation said on Monday that it planned to reopen cruising on eight of its ships before the end of the summer.

Carnival has canceled service on some of its lines through September, but it said it was planning to offer cruises from ports in Galveston, Texas; Miami; and Port Canaveral, Fla., as early as Aug. 1. Carnival has more than 100 ships across its various brands.

Carnival, the world’s largest cruise line, has been at the center of the pandemic since the beginning, when it was widely blamed for a series of major outbreaks that spread the disease across the world. Last week, Congress began investigating the company’s handling of the virus, asking it to turn over internal communications related to the pandemic.

It is unclear how the outbreak will look in August. The day the company announced its plans to restart some cruises, some federal agencies were privately projecting a steady rise in cases and deaths over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1.

In its statement on Monday, Carnival said that all North American cruises set to depart between June 27 and July 31 would be canceled.

“We will use this additional time to continue to engage experts, government officials and stakeholders on additional protocols and procedures to protect the health and safety of our guests, crew and the communities we serve,” the company said.

[old goat]

Surgical masks all used to be cloth. I don't know what kind of cloth was used. They were before my time (although I did work with cloth gowns and drapes. A lot of surgeons use their own surgical caps although they tend to be disgusting, unlike in the old days when the hospital supplied them and washed them every day.

I was reading (April 6 New Yorker) that the Chinese (always the Chinese) invented vaccination for smallpox a thousand years ago, long before Jenner. They used live small pox virus obtained from the pustules of small pox sufferers. Professional vaccinators knew how to tell which pustules had just the right amount of virus to cause a mild case of the disease--enough to elicit an immune response but not enough to kill the recipient or cause disfigurement.

Assuming that the severity of Covid 19 is dose-dependent, maybe we need to stop washing our groceries but still should avoid close prolonged contact with unmasked people, so that we self vaccinate with low doses of the virus.

WARNING: Do not actually try this. It is a wildly speculative, unproven hypothesis and the product of a fading mind.


Dr. Mukherjee discusses the issue of dose dependence in Covid 19 in the article. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...side-a-patient

[goldenboy]

Honestly this whole work from home thing is pretty awesome. Having spent the past 5+ years traveling nonstop for work I'm really enjoying not flying and not commuting. I was averaging 200 hours of flight time per year and probably another 80 hours of time spent at airports or on my way to airports. Add in a 40 minute each way commute for when I was at the office and I must have gained back 450 hours a year of time that was wasted previously.

I'd gladly do this WFH thing forever if it didn't mean the collapse of the global economy and hundreds of thousands of people being killed.

There's no way any business doesn't look at that and think "hmnnn..."

[Bunion 2020]

The new healthdata.org projections bums me out. my better half took an attitude of, maybe it'll be a viewed as a call to decisionmakers to tighen things up better,but i don't know.

fatality rate increases that caught my eye: CA, FL, and several other states doubled. NY from 24k to 32k, Pennsylvania from 2.4k to 8.6k AL went up ~7.5x.... and this isn't accounting for all the stupid fucks that are blatantly and intentionally disregarding mandates, nor places today or in the next few weeks that are opening things up more. Many that I speak to that are intelligent and critical thinkers seems to be forgetting that it will likely be several weeks before we see the effects of the shit that went down this weekend or the opening of restaurants this week or next weekend. :sigh:

We make the switch to Phase 2 on the 18th. That gives us 14 more days to see what happens with the Guinea Pig States.

Thing is, many States will shrug and call it the cost of saving Murica.

[Kevo]

There's no way any business doesn't look at that and think "hmnnn..."

Fingers crossed I land some decent contracts in the next couple months. I'm planning to tell my company that I'm going full time remote and not going back to the office.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Well, yeah, Utah has its points, but, that's no reason to live next to trash. I don't live in the Bronx.

Is it trash or are they awesome neighbors under other circumstances?

[LongShortLong]

wasn't their projected deaths before the update around 68K? Pretty radical jump from that. They changed their presentation all around too, it seems more confusing at first look.

IHME originally projected based on infections during lockdown following the Wuhan trajectory. Anyone paying attention knew we didn't lockdown as strongly. Within a few weeks, it was also clear the weaker lockdown was having a weaker effect.

That is, IHME gave us a best case scenario. We went offscript and got a different outcome. In IHME's model, we'd have close to zero new cases by now, and we'd be looking at gradually reopening the economy while maintaining total suppression.

[Ted Striker]

Aside from the truly rich, doesn't everyone have at least one trash neighbor?

[Tri-Ungulate]

RIP Dave Greenfield

[Rideski]

The bottom line, what it all boils down to, at the end of the day

[Buster Highmen]

In my experience, even in the most refined of neighborhoods, there are raging assholes. Money is no delineator.

[ill-advised strategy]

WARNING: Do not actually try this. It is a wildly speculative, unproven hypothesis and the product of a fading mind]

SOUNDS LIKE A GREAT STRATEGY TO ME!

[XXX-er]

Aside from the truly rich, doesn't everyone have at least one trash neighbor?

well you can look at it from the [point of view that they make you look really good in comparison

[LongShortLong]

IMHE just doubled their estimated deaths. And they're showing that we're not on the downslope. Yay !

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."

Oh, and 538 says IMHE is conservative on their estimates. It's going to be a long hot summer (if the scientists are to be believed)

I haven't read IHME's new assumptions about how effectively Americans will reduce transmission. Looks to me like they are still too optimistic. Based on all the talk of reopening, we'll be lucky to hold new infections steady.

I don't see us hitting the IHME low end. To hit the low end (95,092), we'd need to go Wuhan-style against the virus or a miracle treatment. I do expect even chance we exceed the high end. I fear Americans are collectively too dumb to outsmart a brainless virus. I loathe the death toll (and injuries?).

Current infections are running 30k per day, deaths 2k per day. Not much trend up or down, slightly down, somewhat noisy. With 66,000 deaths on May 2, add 30 days * 2k, brings us 126,000 dead on June 1. If we keep the same behavior, we're looking at 250,000 dead on August 1.

* Standard disclaimer about projecting 3 months subject to wild inaccuracies. If we blow it in May, doubling daily infections, we can easily exceed 400,000 dead by August 1.

Oops, just noticed IHME is projection through August. Add another 60,000 dead, 100,000 more if we blow May.

[muted]

It is shocking for sure. I personally came close a couple of times when working on various home projects with the help of a few beers.

That's exactly what I was thinking A few beers + my table saw and I'm wondering why the fuck do I have to be so motivated in these times. Be tipsy, self, or motivated, NOT both. Post and drink, don't work and drink!

As for WFH, just one counterpoint which I know is worthless, but WFH sucks IMO. Some industries it's impossible, and in general some workers are going to revolt. Mainly ones with kids.

[Core Shot]

Aside from the truly rich, doesn't everyone have at least one trash neighbor?

Well, I live in a rich neighborhood.
And I’m definitely the trashiest
The neighbors are horrified every time I mow my own lawn.