Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

It's not all old people.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...hout-the-virus

[old goat]

so.... vaccine will be better? worse ? maybe better /worse/ equal

Will the antibody titer be better worse or same---no one knows.
If the antibody titer is adequate and provides protection--no guarantee that it will--vaccine better than disease, by a lot.
For all the talk about vaccines, especially in the last 2 days, there is no guarantee that there will be an effective vaccine.

[iceman]

Well then I want my money back.

[puma]

Amazon extends wfh if you can to oct 2.

[old goat]

Have read that already. But thank you.

My question involves the true potential mortality rate of the virus which I believe is not accurately portraid due to the availability of modern medical interventions.

Quote:
The CFR’s denominator—total cases—depends on how thoroughly a country tests its population. Its numerator—total deaths—depends on the spread of ages within that population, the prevalence of preexisting illnesses, how far people live from hospitals, and how well staffed or well equipped those hospitals are. These factors vary among countries, states, and cities, and the CFR will, too. (Majumder and her colleagues are now building tools for predicting regional CFRs, so local leaders can determine which regions are most vulnerable.)
: End Quote

What this is saying is, is that we don't really have accurate numbers. What it does not say is, should acute cases that require hospitalization be counted as potential deaths when compiling the data?


I would say yes.

Very early on someone made a back of the envelope calculation of 80,000 deaths minimum. Math at the time seemed reasonable to me then and still does.

Trying to figure the CFR or IFR at this point is a fool's errand, given the lack of an accurate denominator, but if someone is going to try it seems to be that comparing current deaths to the case number two weeks previously gives a better estimate. That's what these guys did https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext
The time from onset of symptoms to death might be even longer than that. The greater the time interval you use the higher the mortality, at least while daily case numbers are rising.

[Buster Highmen]

Well then I want my money back.

I'll have Martin Shkreli cut you a check.

[BCMtnHound]

Allergies. Yep. Very active sinuses. Yep.
Had adenoids removed as a child. It helped.
Broke nose in early 20's. Not good.
Fixed nose. Removed adenoids again. Deflated some kind of sinus sack. Much better.
Never suffered the headaches, thankfully. Nose and eyes still run during springtime or dust conditions. Local honey does lessen the expulsion, but still significant. Carried a handkerchief most of my life, and blowing a honker to boot.
Allergy meds lessen the flow, but feel weird and dry mouth symptoms, so only as a last resort.
So thankful headaches have never been a symptom though. Sense of smell is so subjective when nose is clear no idea if that is an issue or not so far.
COVID-19 and the above really sucks. Tried a mask for public a few times, but a bout of heavy sneezed makes them all but useless. When it is bad, I can wet out a mask a couple times a day. But then no one in this small town the past week or so is wearing either so effort is family distance. No active cases been reported here either. Very thankful for that, but the quarantine trailer is ready for my nurse wife when she gets off shift.
Gotta love spring.

[Lvovsky]

real talk

wife started showing symptoms of either 1-allergies 2-covid on tuesday. Wednesday wakes up and cant taste the coffee. Calls our doc who does conference call with covid hotline. Come get tested. She mentions to our doc that I had a headache and sinus issues last week. I have a RP test ran on me every monday at work and haven't popped hot for any of the 27 pathogens (not including covid) and was clean. Yeah lets test him too and team htfb quarenteened until results come back. I got to do the driveup testing at Altaview Hospital. Those nurses are fucking heroes and should be paid 1000 an hour to do those tests. That fucking sinus swab is no goddamned joke and Im coughing and spewing right in their papr'd face and onto their 3 levels of PPE. It was insane.

Nuked the house and cars with a decon protocol that would make CDC proud. Im the only one that leaves the house and travels into hotzones like grocery or bank so I had to be the vector Fuck. Drank too goddamned much last night worried for my kid with asthma my friends who I may not have socially distanced properly from and the potential for my wife to die. I slept downstairs and woke up to the wife sitting in my bed with the laptop on the myhealth wedsite and we are both negative.

Be well my friends

Shit. Sorry about ordeal you had go through. Congrats on the tests being negative.

[Tri-Ungulate]

when one is developed , will it provide better, worse, maybe both better and worse immunity compared to having the infection itself ( off course with all the affects that having the infection brings with it : death, hospitalizations , long term whatever in some cases)

Point Mofro and a few others are trying to make is that there are several vaccines in development, and we don't know which will win out as effective and safe, and how effective and safe that vaccine will be. So short answer is your question is currently unanswerable, and even when a vaccine standard is agreed upon (which in itself is not a sure thing), it'll take awhile to figure out. Also, your question is also difficult to answer in that we're still figuring out, and are still uncertain on, the extent of immunity generated by people getting and recovering from SARS CoV2 as a population, given biological variability.

Edit to add: xylitol is basically a sugar substitute, and IMO unlikely to be an active agent for allergies - the main benefit of the xlear stuff is prolly just the saline wash itself. Sterile saline irrigation is surprisingly effective for nasal congestion. I also noted the product has versions with oxymetalozone (which is an active ingredient, usually found in stuff like Afrin) and a version with capascain (hot chili peppers, anyone?) which is of uncertain benefit, but might spice things up for sure. Also, have a bit of care with the neti pots, just make sure you use sterile water with them.

[KQ]

PBS Newshour has some great stuff. This is from tonight's broadcast:




this is from last night and is good too:




And this was on last night too - very informative:

Could the loneliness of the pandemic facilitate a ‘social revival?’

[LongShortLong]

Seems like you're looking for peers.

Yes, tomatoes need that nitrogen for growth. I got Lemon Boy, yellow tomato to hide the golden shower.

[Benny Profane]

https://mobile.twitter.com/vote4robg...22426120146947

[Tri-Ungulate]

Dang, can you imagine if they were black folk? Weren't Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols part of the Michigan Militia?

[huckbucket]

SF doc who traveled to NY to offer his services. It's just the flu bro.

[Benny Profane]

https://mobile.twitter.com/stearnsla...70977103044608

[Benny Profane]

SF doc who traveled to NY to offer his services. It's just the flu bro.

Ugh.

[KQ]

Yes, tomatoes need that nitrogen for growth. I got Lemon Boy, yellow tomato to hide the golden shower.

OMG! LOVE LOVE LOVE Lemon boy!

[Cono Este]

I was just speaking my GF who is an elementary school teacher. And she was discussing the new measures they will be implementing if they re open. And it occurred to me that there will be huge expenses coming down the pipeline at the local level. While we’re bailing out cruise lines, shooting our wads at the LA Lakers , the schools haven’t even been mentioned.

Also, at some point, we can’t just shut everything down again. Grandma shouldn’t be picking up the kids. It’s got to play out. And in a country where such a huge % of parents are both working, big challenges ahead.

I hate to say it, but we’re going to have to let it play out at some point. Or we’ll all be pulling plows ourselves and living in the Stone Age.


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[Adolf Allerbush]

I was just speaking my GF who is an elementary school teacher. And she was discussing the new measures they will be implementing if they re open. And it occurred to me that there will be huge expenses coming down the pipeline at the local level. While we’re bailing out cruise lines, shooting our wads at the LA Lakers , the schools haven’t even been mentioned.

Also, at some point, we can’t just shut everything down again. Grandma shouldn’t be picking up the kids. It’s got to play out. And in a country where such a huge % of parents are both working, big challenges ahead.

I hate to say it, but we’re going to have to let it play out at some point. Or we’ll all be pulling plows ourselves and living in the Stone Age.


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Maybe some combo of PPE, treatment, partially effective vaccine, etc etc and letting it play out

[KQ]

210 positive cases at the local Tyson plant and not all results are back. Great.

[Cono Este]

Maybe some combo of PPE, treatment, partially effective vaccine, etc etc and letting it play out

I told her there is nothing they can do. Seating kids 6 feet apart, no recess, etc. if it’s there, it’s there. Her concern was all the grandparents doing their kids jobs and picking up kids. I’m sorry, but if people are that stupid, or greedy, then they’re killing grandma. And if you shit the schools, then no one goes back to work.

Interesting problem when so many households are two working parents.

I blame feminism. But that’s just me. Kidding.

We’ve shot our wads prematurely on this I think. These school districts are going to go bankrupt paying for ppe, doubling the janitorial stuffs, expressing after school programs. Meanwhile, the money grab gave no help.

Sell any muni bonds you may own.


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[KQ]

OMG Clint Didier has a GoFundMe page to help him sue Inslee over the stay at home order. He's already got 17K

[GoldMember]

OMG Clint Didier has a GoFundMe page to help him sue Inslee over the stay at home order. He's already got 17K

That's okay. Let them waste their time and money on this. By the time it wends its way through the courts, we'll be back. Mostly, anyway. He's just grandstanding and the glassy-eyed sheep are sending in money they don't have. This is the start of a run for governor for him, I bet.

[LongShortLong]

Trying to figure the CFR or IFR at this point is a fool's errand, given the lack of an accurate denominator, but if someone is going to try it seems to be that comparing current deaths to the case number two weeks previously gives a better estimate. That's what these guys did https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext
The time from onset of symptoms to death might be even longer than that. The greater the time interval you use the higher the mortality, at least while daily case numbers are rising.

Interestingly accurate. Now that activity is minimal in China, I calculate the naive CFR at 5.9% (today deaths/today cases). The paper says mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China. Applying the paper's method to USA I get CFR at 9.2% (59,000 deaths on 4/29 / 639,000 cases on 4/15). Ouch! Probably means we're missing a bunch of cases the Chinese would have found.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Fascinating transnational multi-institutional collaborative research program starting up, the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative looking into genetic determinants of SARS CoV 2 susceptibility. I'm wondering if @LegoSkier knows whether Adaptive is going to get involved from their end as their T-cell receptor and B-cell library database could dovetail nicely with the whole-genome effort.

Edit to add: also a nice collaborative research effort on the SARS CoV 2 genome itself, firing up. If anything, I'm impressed and encouraged how scientific teams are forming in a cooperative open source model.