Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[glademaster]

That depends on whose stats you're using, NPR announced that the 60k mark was broken yesterday, odds are the real number is closer to 75-80k.

[jono]

Would American's voluntarily SD like the Swedes?

Leaving aside the pedantic argument that what we're doing now is voluntary, more Americans would voluntarily social distance if the government didn't say we should. The resistance of the government-skeptical would be reversed and many others would figure it out for themselves. Reverse psychology would devastate a few of us, though, and I doubt we'd see a net increase in total SD, only the "voluntary" variety. But on net it might be close--especially given recent trends.

[hutash]

Seems irrelevant to pin it down to 0.8 or 0.7 etc. The question of how much this one kills, or the mutation that will be circulating in a month will kill? Could be more could be less.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...-chinese-study

Interesting read, and some glimmer of hope. Viruses that kill their host tend to flame out early since dead hosts aren't good at spreading the virus. Epidemics and pandemics tend to start out hot because I viral mutation allowed it to jump to a new species, but if too virulent it kills its host. If it mutates to a milder form it can then spread more widely. The 1918 pandemic was likely a jump from swine to people in later winter of '18 (in Kansas), slowed down with summer and came roaring back in the fall. Yet, by late 1919 is was well on it's way to burning out and just becoming a "normal" flu (650,000dead Americans and 2.5 million dead worldwide later).

The hope maybe with SD and flattening the curve we buy time for natural mutation and a decrease in virulence.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Leaving aside the pedantic argument that what we're doing now is voluntary, more Americans would voluntarily social distance if the government didn't say we should. The resistance of the government-skeptical would be reversed and many others would figure it out for themselves. Reverse psychology would devastate a few of us, though, and I doubt we'd see a net increase in total SD, only the "voluntary" variety. But on net it might be close--especially given recent trends.

Yeah, I think that could be the case for sure. People not wanting to be told what to do by the gubment seems to be a big ax to grind for some.

[mcski]

[

Interesting side note--no North American company is willing to participate--they all have a policy of not getting involved in any drug or vaccine unless they are given exclusive worldwide marketing rights. .

That right there is fucking catnip for the anti-vaxxer crowd.

[hutash]

Leaving aside the pedantic argument that what we're doing now is voluntary, more Americans would voluntarily social distance if the government didn't say we should. The resistance of the government-skeptical would be reversed and many others would figure it out for themselves. Reverse psychology would devastate a few of us, though, and I doubt we'd see a net increase in total SD, only the "voluntary" variety. But on net it might be close--especially given recent trends.

It is lose/lose with Americans. Some won't social distance regardless if it mandatory or voluntary. Either way the order/request would have to come from the government, or other government body (CDC, NIH, etc.) which is good enough for the nutters to find an excuse to ignore it.

Seem my sig.

[GoldMember]

Pants are for losers, jorts are for winners

Gardner Minshew: Ahead of the curve...

[highangle]

So what do we do about Fauci and Ferguson for promoting misinformation?

The obvious solution is to fucking fire Trump, no?

[Core Shot]

A friend of ours got sick with symptoms that are a total match for trumpflu, got tested, came back negative, now has blood clots, they won't retest him. 100% coincidence or bogus test?

Covid toe is a thing.

Micro embelli causing blue toes.
But no other symptoms
And yet, if your blood is clotting in your toes, how your organs doin?

[huckbucket]

And this just in ... this morning Gilead is claiming success with Remdesivir in their govt run study (NIAID) although they have yet to show the data. It was blinded which is good. They've also shown independently that 5 days of drug is equivalent to 10, which is also good.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/...-to-treatment/

Interesting that Fauci is the Director of the NIAID (has been forever).

Seems like I might be the only one following this, but TRUST ME, our dear leader is going to PUMP THE SHIT out of this at the briefing today.

---------------------------------
The new Remdesivir data from Tony Fauci from N >1,000 placebo-controlled trial (unpublished, Oval Office citation) does not show statistically significant reduction in mortality (8% vs 11%, in the right direction) but a clear-cut benefit in time to recovery 11 vs 15 days, P<0.001

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status...39357911584768

[Benny Profane]

Funny, I had a really strange sensation in the toes about three weeks ago. Man, I'd love to get tested. Pretty sure I had it in February.

[My Pet Powder Goat]

Pence's response.....I especially like the "look them in the eye" logic. JHC......

Asked by reporters why he did not wear a mask, Pence said he is tested for the coronavirus "on a regular basis, and everyone who is around me is tested for the coronavirus."




"Since I don't have the coronavirus, I thought it'd be a good opportunity for me to be here, to be able to speak to these researchers, these incredible health care personnel and look them in the eye and say thank you," he said.

The criminal part is he's going into critical hospitals and research facilities on the front of cambating the virus and risks infecting the researchers and doctors helping. Disgusting, but unsurprising behaviour.

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[schuss]

Also: economy doesn't come back online until people aren't scared of the (to them) unknown threat of getting it and dying or going broke from the bill. Good fucking luck getting people to martyr themselves for a market that has left most of them behind.
At least slowly going broke in your apartment is safer.

[KQ]

Funny, I had a really strange sensation in the toes about three weeks ago. Man, I'd love to get tested. Pretty sure I had it in February.

LOL!! So many possibilities for "strange sensations" in your toes.

Also: economy doesn't come back online until people aren't scared of the (to them) unknown threat of getting it and dying or going broke from the bill. Good fucking luck getting people to martyr themselves for a market that has left most of them behind.
At least slowly going broke in your apartment is safer.

Meat plant workers to Trump: Employees aren't going to show up

[KQ]

These Americans protesting against the lockdown are both hilarious and terrifying

[Benny Profane]

Meat plant workers to Trump: Employees aren't going to show up

I posted it elsewhere, but this is more a liability shield than anything. There's already one worker lawsuit in the pipeline.

[wooley12]

Pretty sure they want a safe place to work more than the right to sue. I'm hoping to see some work stoppage.

[glademaster]

Pretty sure they want a safe place to work more than the right to sue.

They'll get nothing and like it!

[jono]

It sounds like I was successful in estimating low on the cost of this fiasco. Sadly, all that does is cement the support for action in November.

It's the same posture quant-oriented economists use to dismiss arguments about related, ill effects of moral hazard & corporatism "oh well we can't measure that, so it's not in our model and thus, not relevant or worth discussion."

Definitely a problem. I was serious before when I said you should model something on the economic front (or link something if you've found anything worthwhile). I expect that by the time we account for consumer unconfidence schuss's point dominates, but regardless of such speculation the conversation needs quantitative modeling--even just a start.

[XXX-er]

These Americans protesting against the lockdown are both hilarious and terrifying

yeah those are the batshit crazy Americans in that vid which makes for great press so how about the rest of America ?

I ask cuz up here we don't have the best preconceived notion of the American public

[Benny Profane]

Pretty sure they want a safe place to work more than the right to sue. I'm hoping to see some work stoppage.

It's not what they want.

Poor people are a step above migrant farm workers, and paid and treated that way. What's their alternative?

[wooley12]

Probably. What we need, if history is a guide, is for the workers to shut down the plant until their demands for a safe work place are met. The donnie can send the military in to shoot a few. Bunker Hill - Kent State style.

French unions told Amazon and the government to go suck sand.

[nickwm21]

The meat plants won’t close. Simple economics.
- The demand for meat isn’t going away.
- The bills will begin to stack up for the wage workers that don’t show up, they will be back to work quickly. You don’t get unemployment for being scared...
- The CDC guidelines for operating during COVID are easy to follow, they probably already use the same PPE.
- Management won’t let their bonuses disappear, they will do anything to keep the plants open.


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[GoldMember]

yeah those are the batshit crazy Americans in that vid which makes for great press so how about the rest of America ?

I ask cuz up here we don't have the best preconceived notion of the American public

I was in Washington DC several years ago and remember seeing a group of maybe 50 protesters outside the Capital with signs and bullhorns making all kinds of noise and ranting and raving about something. I don't remember what but, for 50 people, they were noisy. There were 2 or 3 news vans on the street, power cables running from the vans, and a handful of reporters and cameras mixed in the crowd. That night on national news, it was reported about this mass protest of....whatever...and the camera angles and crowd noise made it appear as though there were hundreds of people making a bold statement about....whatever.

The bulk of the people around there just walked by, some looking over and shaking their heads. It's nearly an everyday occurrence there but represents an incredibly small number of people. Most of us just go about our business and are the 'silent majority' who just want to live our lives.

[LongShortLong]

I'm sure you already know this, but I'll state it explicitly anyway: every risk has a probability and a cost (or benefit) and ignoring any of them is needlessly lazy (aka stupid). The quantitative value of a mitigation approach is the sum of all risk terms: each risk's potential cost or benefit times their probability of occurring without mitigation times the probability of the mitigation being effective. If a probability is small so be it, that's not an excuse to ignore it--that's how we got here in the first place. For instance, the chance of no lasting immunity might be 0.1%, but the cost if that turns out to be true could be insanely high--$30T? More? 0.1% of $30T is $30B--the kind of money we used to find significant.

As another example, if the risk of a global pandemic was 1% on, say, January 26, and the potential cost to the US Treasury was $5T if it occurred, and quarantining every incoming international traveler for 3 weeks had a 90% chance of being effective in preventing spread then the value of that measure would be:

$5T x 0.01 x 0.9 = $45B

A per traveler basis could be determined by dividing by the total number of travelers or you could separate that by country (or you could have in Jan/Feb). Allegedly 450k came from China since then, for example. But to my earlier point, multiple mitigation steps can be taken together and multiple risks can be addressed by adding their respective terms. Including the upside of killing the flu through SD.

Estimates, obviously. If there is a better/simpler approach please correct me, I'm just a random goon on the internet who'd rather be deluded by math than wishful thinking and memes of questionable origin. Sorry about the length!

For the lazy: $45B / 450k travellers is $100,000 each. That is, if we spent $100,000 per traveler (quarantine hotels, feeding, etc.) and prevented Covid in the USA, we'd be winning, bigly. We didn't.

Bring on the memes though. 5 seconds on a meme beats 5 minutes of math any day.